2. However, the gap between a tentative truce and peace could be large, and US-China tension could escalate again, especially into the election period.

3. Macro impact of the mini deal is limited, in our view. It removes some downside risk in 4Q19 and 1Q20 but does not affect the slowdown trend.

4. Our growth forecasts are 6.2% in 2019 and 5.9% in 2020.

5. We revise down our USD/CNY forecast to 7.05 at yearend and 7.20 by mid-2020, and Asia FX forecasts are also revised down accordingly.

6. The mini deal will lead modest upside in China equities in the near term, in our view, led by re-rating of companies vulnerable to trade war risk.