“we have increased our estimate of the growth impact of the trade war. In our baseline policy scenario, we now estimate a peak cumulative drag on the level of GDP of 0.6%, including a 0.2% drag from the latest escalation. The drivers of this modest change are that we now include an estimate of the sentiment and uncertainty effects and that financial markets have responded notably to recent trade news. Based on our estimates, we have taken down our Q4 growth forecast by 0.2pp to 1.8% (qoq ar)”
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