• Seth Golden posted an update 1 week, 3 days ago

    Goldman Sachs forecast for NFP: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in August … Our forecast reflects a 15-20k boost from Census canvassing activities, but a slower underlying pace of private-sector job gains in part reflecting the return of the trade war. …

    We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. … We estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month—a tenth below consensus—and we expect the year-over-year rate to fall by two tenths to 3.0%.
    emphasis added
    CR Note: It will be important to adjust for decennial Census hiring. Ex-Census the Goldman forecast is for 130K to 135K jobs.

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