David Kostin of GS
1. 3Q earnings season kicks off in earnest on October 15.
2. Consensus expects aggregate S&P 500 EPS will fall by 3% year/year, the first profit decline since 2016 and since 2Q 2009 when the Energy sector is excluded
3. Margin compression of more than 100 bpto 10.6% will offset positive sales growth.
4. Lower-than-expected effective tax rates represent one source of potential positive EPS surprises