• Seth Golden posted an update 3 weeks, 3 days ago

    1. Jefferies Equity Research udpated their analysis of S&P 500 earnings call transcripts and find that 2x as many companies in 3Q indicated that they (or customers) are shrinking inventory rather than building.

    2. The inventory destock, partially owing to pre-tariff inventory builds, has weighed on the US economy in ’19 (particularly manufacturing), but the destock is progressing, ISM new orders/inventories are near past troughs and many Jefferies strategists and analysts have become more bullish on cyclical groups on macro data valuations.

    3. aggregate inventory swings tend to follow accelerations in final demand, which bodes well for the inventory cycle, shown below

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