Mislav Matejka sounding less bullish for the first time throughout the whole bull run
JPM head of strategy who has been spot-on during 2019 is for the first time starting to plan exits……for 2H20…..
1. Some negatives could start dominating later on, making 2020 a proverbial year of two halves
2. (further out though) we think that some negatives could begin to materialize, which the market might start to discount sometime in 2H. Out of potential concerns, the US politics could become a lose-lose proposition, and trade uncertainty, as well as hard Brexit risk, could come back. Fed’s credibility might start to be questioned, earnings are overshooting the trend and rising credit concerns could come to the fore
HOWEVER: one should not cut risk-on trades too early, as the bear capitulation, which is currently under way, could have legs