• Seth Golden posted an update 2 weeks ago

    Morgan Stanley Chief Economist: Looking ahead, we do expect new clusters of infections to emerge, and our base case assumes a second wave in the autumn and winter. However, we think that public health systems will be better positioned to manage the second wave. Testing and tracing capacity are ramping up, the authorities are more attuned to potential strains on medical equipment and services, and we believe that they will stockpile supplies ahead of the autumn. We think that renewed social distancing and selective and rolling lockdowns will keep outbreaks in check without strict nationwide measures (like the ones we saw in March-April this year). Hence, we believe that the global economy will be able to sustain its recovery and avoid a double dip, keeping us firmly in the V camp.

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