• Seth Golden posted an update 3 weeks ago

    As the President, with a double-digit deficit weeks away from the election, you’re not going to get Senate leaders to coalesce to your whims on stimulus. Not that it matters too much as the Senate isn’t unified to deliver a unanimous 2nd package given bi-Senitarian ideologies. As it pertains to the market, it will likely still represent the belief that fiscal relief 2.0 will be delivered regardless, just a matter of when. If incumbent wins, and we are deeper into Q4 with economy slowing further, layoff announcements increasing etc., on some level fiscal relief will be passed. In another scenario, a blue wave result from the election produces a MAX 2.0 STIMULUS, not just relief, as unified government will look to position economy for an even stronger 2021 and beyond. The calculous suggests, either way, fiscal relief will be a reality, but the timing is the only question. If the calculus is accurate, the market will likely consolidate some of the recent rebound, but not deepen to key moving average. (SPX 200-DMA, 3,113)

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