• Seth Golden posted an update 2 weeks ago

    Deutsche Bank: “With the polls steady and heavily favoring Biden, the market is increasingly shifting focus towards thinking about how the Senate results might be the main driver behind the market reactions to the November 3rd election. Certainly the Senate make-up, and the size of the majority, will be an important part of the response. However, there are at least four important reasons why risk appetite will prove fairly resilient to any Biden win, even if fiscal policy is restrained by a GOP Senate majority. This includes; i) a history of risky assets doing best under ‘gridlock’; ii) similarly, the real economy registering stronger and better balanced growth with a Democratic President and Republican Congress; iii) because some of the policy shifts that are regarded as most ideological, including higher capital gains, will not be enacted; and not least iv) because the Presidency is more important than Congress when it comes to factors that impact global risk, most obviously trade policy. Assuming the polls are validated and Biden is President, there is still some asymmetric risk positive bias whoever wins the Senate, albeit more positive under a Democratic ‘blue wave’ sweep”

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