• Seth Golden posted an update 1 month, 3 weeks ago

    peeling back the LEI onion one layer exposes flags (a couple of red, otherwise mostly yellow) that are worth noting. Shown in the first portion of the table below are the 10 subcomponents of the LEI. While levels are generally healthy or fair (with the exception of average consumer expectations for business conditions), trends look less impressive.

    Key to watch will be the emergence of additional worsening trends. Historically, a consistent sea of red in the “trend” column has preceded weakness in the “level” column and, eventually, a deterioration in the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which is shown in the bottom portion of the table.

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