• Huge drop in Consumer Demand as an external risk factor when comparing Q3 to Q4, which at least for me and simplistically put, means one less recessionary factor to fear (consumer demand and spending). Adding that to the increased concerns about US trade policies and FED policy supports what you have written before and wrote again in today’s daily article, which was a great read!

    • @upspeed Yes, the consumer doesn’t seem to be a problem. Amazing how much fear is being pushed into the market and disbelief for the future economic expansion in 2019. But, I guess that comes with the territory and unorthodox measures taken after so many years of recovery.

    • I agree, and the big question is, at least for myself, how long can markets sustain this sentiment driven state? I know that “longer than one can remain solvent” is a pretty good answer, and that liquidity and exposure levels are powerful tools 🙂

    • Seth, how and where do you see liquidity levels currently at in the markets?

    • they are actually high because hedge funds have already largely unleveraged.

    • That’s certainly reassuring. Do you have a source from where you look at these levels?

    • mostly market commentary and the VIX itself as it hasn’t exploded which would indicate hedge funds need to hedge. If they had traditional leverage/exposure, they would very much need to be hedging.

    • Regarding leverage, I have a chart that I would like to share here. How can I attach it to my message?

    • on your profile you click on activity where you can create a post like this one here. Just below the box where you type you’ll see a little icon off to the left side. Click on it and you can upload your photo to your original post.

    • Posted a comment with a chart attached if you can take a look at it and give your insight. Thanks!

    • I did. In this mornings article you can also see how one can gauge leverage through margin debt levels and net non-commercial hedge fund positioning.

    • Great! I just read the daily article and it was exactly what I was looking for! Thank you Seth.

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