The Fed’s June announcement of a pause with further rate hikes to come has extended the uncertainty of whether an inverted curve and persistent policy tightening will ultimately lead to a recession. The business cycle is a critical investment issue because the relative returns of many assets depend on the state of the macro economy. This study examines the Consumer…
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A financial market resource for the every-day investor and trader.
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The Beginning of the End of Easy Money is Starting to Look Overpriced
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Cross-asset strategy: Higher rates was one of late 2020’s most-consensus views, but higher rate volatility was not. Hence,...
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Weekly State of the Market: Investor Fear Obscures The Facts
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
In bull markets, investors are blind to the risks. In bear markets, investors are blind to the opportunities ~...
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J.P. Morgan Analyzes the Retail Trader Impact
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
The ~3% drawdown in the S&P 500 this week took many by surprise. A key feature of this likely...
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Correction Analysis and Correct Perspective/s
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
After a 5-month long downtrend in market volatility and an exceptional rally off of the March lows, it has...
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A New Year, A New LASTING Trend?
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
While we can’t be sure that the bear market ended on October 13, 2022, with the S&P 500 falling...
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Are We Shorting Volatility And How
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Over the last few years I have become increasingly vocal and accurate with my prognostications concerning volatility and the...
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Where’s Your Recession? This Time is Different?
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
If you’re an investor or trader, you’ve probably heard the following words dozens of times: This time is different....
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Morgan Stanley’s Weekly Warm-up: Thoughts from the Road
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Interactions with clients suggest our 2023 earnings forecast is now very much out of consensus. This is a change...
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