Research Reporting

Good Wednesday morning investors and traders! As a reminder, this is our Finom Group off-reporting weekend (2 weekends on,...

We are going to commence this weekend's macro-market Research Report by stating something that should be obvious, but based...

Good Wednesday morning investors and traders! Ahead of the official release of the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price...

Only 2-trading weeks into the calendar year and things have become a whole lot tougher for investors. I will...

Good Wednesday morning Finom Group investors and traders! Please consider the following mash-up of 3rd-party Research ahead of this...

Well, it has not been the ideal end or start to calendar years, but somewhat to-be-expected and in accordance...

There are only 2-trading days left in calendar year 2024, and the S&P 500 finished this past week down...

Merry Christmas🎄  investors/traders from around the globe 🌏 There are only 4-trading days left in 2024, 1 of which...

Good Sunday investors/traders from around the globe 🌏 There are only 6-trading days left in 2024, two of which...

With today’s publication, we take a look at some market internals/breadth in order to recognize that while Tech/Growth/QQQs have...

Good Saturday morning Finom Group members! As I (Seth Golden) remain on vacation through December, keep in mind that...

Good Wednesday morning Finom Group investors/traders! As we welcome newer members at this time of year, please consider that...

Good Sunday morning Finom Group members! As I (Seth Golden) remain on vacation through December, keep in mind that...

Welcome to one of 2 videos we will be offering in the month of December 2024. We encourage Finom...

Good weekend investors/traders and happy holidays. As I embark upon my December vacation, please stay connected to our weekly...

The Leuthold Group The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week...

Good morning Finom Group investors/traders. As you traverse the year-end macro-market landscape of developments into 2025, please consider our...

2024 is in its home stretch, with investor and market participants from all walks of life along for the...

Good weekend all! Please take some time to review the thoughts and ideas concerning the macro-market landscape since the...

Capital Economics We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news...

Good weekend all! During our off-reporting weekend, please consider our 3rd-party Research compilation from around Wall Street. Our final...

The Leuthold Group The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 for the week...

Back in the 1980s, Dr. Ed Yardeni popularized the phrasing that concerned an investor population, which was believed to...

Markets: Job openings fell in September according to the latest JOLTS report out today, while our “Take this job...

Welcome back to the Finom Group weekend macro-market Research Report! As a heads-up, I (Seth Golden) will be flying...

The famine in small cap performance that has seen relative returns wither and fade is now in its seventh...

Recall that coming into the month of September, the S&P 500 was on a 4-month positive return winning streak....

Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders! This is our “off-reporting” weekend. Please take some time to read our...

“Good to know” does not mean what we know is altogether practical. Welcome back investors and traders, to more...

by Jim Paulsen,   The Tush Push has become a popular play among both NFL and college football teams. ...

  Yardeni Research US Economy I: Permabulls Versus Permabears. Some of our best friends are permabears. They are smart...

Welcome back to our Finom Group macro-market Research Report! September and the Q3 2024 period ended on a high...

Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders! While this is our off-reporting weekend, and we’ll be back at it again next...

My wife’s great grandmother died this year aged 100. Ida Beckett, this is your life (in US stock returns):...

The first rate cut is out of the way, but most were denying the majority probability spelling out a...

  The Leuthold Group The Major Trend Index continues to oscillate within its neutral zone. There have been no...

Hindsight is 20/20, as they say, but regret is front of mind and stickier than even inflation proposes. When...

This coming week is important, given the Presidential debate on Tuesday evening (9pm ET). And as we look ahead,...

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: The August jobs report came in at +142k (vs Street +165k) and the unemployment rate fell...

If you would like to watch this week’s video blog, please feel free to click the provided link! Have...

Sarcastically speaking, it’s a bit humorous how the recession vibes from early August have almost disappeared by the end...

The Major Trend Index remained at a Neutral reading of zero in the week ended August 23rd. The MTI...

Welcome Finom Group investors and traders! During our off-reporting weekend, we offer the latest insights and analysis from Wall...

This coming week is the most important week for August 2024 because of the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed...

Goldman Sachs Weekly Market Mashup    Goldman Sachs’ Scott Rubner Nvidia Outlook

If there has been a lesson from the markets over the last several weeks and since the mid-July all-time...

Well, it definitely got worse before it got better, or got flat for the week. This was largely our...

J.P. Morgan’s Mike Ferolli Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Bank Of America’s Savita Subramanian

Some macroeconomic storm clouds are brewing. Markets are fleeing for shelter in Treasuries, leaving behind almost everything else, including...

The Major Trend Index held at a Neutral reading for the week ended July 26th. A second consecutive weekly...

Another difficult week for the large-cap indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ), which both fell...

If it’s been said once it has been said millions of times, “everyone would be a buyer if stocks...

by Tom Lee The major event over the weekend is the failed assassination attempt against former President Trump. This...

Please take some time to read this weekend’s 3rd party Research from DataTrek, Merrill Lynch and Fundstrat. We will...

Scott Rubner, Managing Director Goldman Sachs This is the last bullish US Equity email that I will be sending...

Many investors have become quite frustrated by the stock markets’ performance relative to their own portfolio performance. 2024 is...

Macro Strategy—European Equity Risks Increase, Caution Still Warranted: Last month’s European Union (EU) parliamentary elections have marked a turning...

 Macro Strategy—Soft Landing in Progress?: U.S. economic growth remains sturdy, and favorable recent inflation dynamics give the Federal Reserve...

Although the S&P 500 (SPX) would achieve a new, intraday all-time high this past week (Friday), it would fail...

S&P 500 and QQQ both showed minor weakness late this week, yet failed to do much technical damage.  Both...

The Leuthold Group: Not Normal The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a Neutral reading of zero for the...

We’ve often said at Finom Group, “When the market doesn’t produce the higher probability outcome.” And that probability is...

Small Cap investing remains an exercise in futility, with the Russell 2000 already trailing the S&P 500 by more...

Did The Fed Already Pull It Off To watch our State of the Market Heading Into 2H 2024 video,...

Two-Hundred Years of Market Concentration in the United States Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data Investors have...

Good weekend to all Finom Group members! During our off-reporting weekend, please find the following reporting from RBC Capital...

Throughout this bull market, stock investors have bemoaned an incessant lack of breadth.  Leadership has been remarkably narrow.  The...

They have been proclaiming a slowing labor and employment market for weeks, if not months. Has the Unemployment Rate...

Who could have predicted 🔮 this past Friday’s intraday price action and how the day ultimately concluded? Well, calling...

Wall Street colloquialisms are rarely justified by data or proven a valid consideration. “Sell in May and Go Away”...

Merrill Lynch: IN THIS ISSUE  Macro Strategy—Is Stagflation Likely?: With inflation stubbornly high after briefly surpassing levels not seen...

The Major Trend Index remained at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended May 17th. While...

Nothing moves sentiment more than price! You’ve probably heard that phrasing before? The phrasing basically suggests that despite all...

Welcome back Finom Group investors and traders! A 3-week decline and then a 3-week rally; what does it mean?...

Public Service Announcement: Watch The VIDEO HERE! Bear markets happen, on average, once every 4.1 years. There have been...

Dr. Ed Yardeni Go figure: Stocks & bonds sold off on Tuesday following a hotter-than-expected Q1 Employment Cost Index...

Welcome back ladies and gentlemen! This weekend’s Research Report will be abbreviated, as we maintain our outlook for 2024,...

Try telling an investor that April is typically one of the absolute best months of the year for market...

Good weekend to all ‼️ This weekend is our off-reporting weekend but we continue to deliver market insights, analysis,...

After last week’s inflation and jobs reports, the debate rages on about what the Fed will do with interest...

Last week was “stress test” of sorts for equity markets. The combination of “hot” ISM, coupled with Fed members...

It was a strange week in the markets. Bears and Bulls made little progress, but bears are seemingly more...

Are private sector balance sheets, income & profits, liquidity, and pessimism simply too strong to have a recession? By...

As we construct this weekend’s macro-market Research Report, the February Personal Income & Expenditures (PCE) data has been released....

As a reminder, this is Finom Group’s off-reporting weekend, however we continue to disseminate relevant and trusted 3rd-party research...

If there is 1-thing I’ve learned from the markets over my 24 years, it’s that down is going to...

While the Nvidia hype would make you believe the company owns and drives the entire AI narrative, investors would...

That’s a newer development for the market rally, down 2 consecutive weeks. Whether or not this detraction from the...

To suggest that the rally off of the October 27, 2023 low has been impressive probably does not do...

The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended March 1st....

Good weekend Finom Group traders/investors! While this is our off-reporting weekend (no proprietary Research Report), we aim to deliver...

As the rally has rolled onward and upward, not everyone will achieve markedly satisfying results. Essentially, there will be...

Welcome back to this weekend’s Research Report! This weekend’s Report is in PDF format due to issues the Host was having...

If there is 1 thing I’ve learned from the markets over my 23 years, it’s that down is going...

Based solely on calendar patterns, January’s S&P 500 gain is a mild positive for stocks over the remaining months...

Good Sunday and welcome back Finom Group investors and traders. “Steady as she goes” or “So far so good?”...

With the S&P 500 having recently ascended to a fresh record high after such a strong 2023, it’s natural...

Welcome back investors/traders! After a rocky start to January 2024, both price and equity market sentiment have renewed bullishness...

 Plunging Core Inflation and Slower Growth will Force the Fed’s Hand  * The risk of recession persists, though our...

No matter how many different data sets, seasonal patterns, election cycle studies we look at, they all point to...

Sentiment: Plenty of believers = tactical risk in early 2024 Sentiment indicators such as Farrell Sentiment, asset manager S&P...

Three big things you need to know:  First, across the globe most of our analysts are optimistic on performance...

Some of the 21st century’s biggest breakthroughs are happening in health care, transforming the way we diagnose, treat and...

Welcome back investors and traders! This past week proved a pretty strong bounce-back week for markets after the prior...

As we entered 2024, investors have been told that just because the calendar changes that doesn’t mean the market...

by Michael Cembalest

The Major Trend Index held at a neutral reading of zero in the week ended December 22nd. Bullish market...

We discuss: how S&P 500 valuation is very reasonable as we enter 2024 and this is particularly notable when...

IT’S OFFICIAL!  The S&P 500 has achieved our year-end price target of 4,750, formerly disseminated within our weekly Research...

By Robert Sluymer CMT Equity markets are resolving 2-year trading ranges to the upside – Further upside likely in...

S&P 500’s annual return after a NEGATIVE RETURN year. Average return the next year = 18%. Remember, however, the...

By Ellen Zetner chief U.S. ecoomist: We expect the Fed to hold the policy rate at 5.375% and to...

In 2023, the S&P 500 gained 20% yet most investors sat on the sidelines as many expected the U.S....

Most of the measures in the MTI’s Sentiment category—including the Bullish Sentiment of stock market newsletter writers—are interpreted in...

Since the start of the rate hike cycle in 2022, regional business cycles have weakened, earnings growth has stagnated...

Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders. As a reminder, throughout the month of December, our chief equity market...

Context and Comprehension are Key 🔑 A woman without her man is nothing!  A woman: without her, man is...

CTAs’ net long position in USD/JPY cut by half from its recent peak Macro hedge funds may act on...

Seasonal trends are mostly about knowing where to look… and when! For this weekend Research note we are going...

NVIDIA reported Oct results (revenue/GMs/EPS ) well above consensus and off of a higher Oct-Qtr revenue base, the team...

The Major Trend Index moved up to the neutral zone in the week ended November 17th, winding up a...

At a time when some are calling for a pause on the development of generative artificial intelligence, Jensen Huang,...

How about them Small-caps? How about that follow-through? How about the 3-week rally which has seen the S&P 500...

The Leuthold Group tactical accounts remain positioned defensively, although not to the extent they could be given the bearish...

The last two trading weeks have not made the bulls whole, but have certainly slashed the hopes of those...

In January, the “inventor” of the yield-curve indicator—Campbell Harvey of Duke University—suggested that the inversion of the 10Y/3M spread...

Nobody, not once, not ever, said it would be easy to make money in the financial markets as an...

Equity sentiment declined for the first time since May Our Sell Side Indicator (SSI) is a contrarian sentiment barometer...

Since our publication of Cost of Higher for Longer in February, we have seen interest rates across the curve...

9 key macro events this week, but Treasury refunding most important arguably. Incoming data likely soft-ish which should help...

The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased...

Markets are showing increasing stress, deteriorating market internals/breadth, and investors will advantage themselves with a game plan. Check out...

While there are plenty of events and fundamental data points worth considering, we find many remain fixated on the...

There was a great deal of concern for the manner in which the equity markets closed the week, 2...

A Note: Structurally, the market needs breadth to improve this week, which demands improved performance from Equal-Weights and Small-Caps!...

Despite another positive weekly performance by the S&P 500 (SPX) this past trading week, it didn’t really feel that...

In lieu of our regularly scheduled State of the Market video analysis, this week we offer a general public...

Fiscal constraints limit policy response at a time when cyclical risks persist. Market breadth reflects this dynamic as the...

The analysis and Research within comes via the monthly Macro-Memo from RBC Capital Wealth Advisors: We have been predicting...

The weekend is where many a discipline and devoted investor/portfolio manager spend most of their free time in the...

“The most important financial lessons aren’t learned slowly during bull markets. They are seared into your brain in bear...

1. The economy is holding up better than expected, but recession risk remains. In the third quarter, easing inflation...

Thank goodness that is over with; September and the historically weaker returns associated with Q3 are complete! The period...

 On markets, not much has changed since our August Rasputin piece. While most leading indicators point to weaker US...

In my conversations over the years with retail investors — many of whom are novices (not that there’s anything...

Key takeaways Soft landing (47% Bearish signals vs 58% in Sep-22), but still below-trend outlook; mfg take-off unlikely before...

September is very much living up to its usual swooning of price action, and finding investors recoiling. The seasonality...

Let’s begin with a mea culpa. In my note of 18 May 2023, I wrote that the risk/reward for equities...

A “soft landing” for the economy in the US seems increasingly possible, so we look back at previous similar episodes...

The explosion of interest in artificial intelligence this year has fueled a major rally in technology stocks, with a concentrated group...

Let’s not blow things out of proportion, as the first full trading week of September and month-to-date returns are...

The Paradox: The #1 concern for most investors/traders forces the diversification of a portfolio, which ultimately and perpetually underperforms...

RBC Capital’s chief market strategist Lori Calvasina: Welcome to RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast recording August 28th, 2023. I’m...

Well, it looks like I’ll be the only one at Finom Group working this weekend. Edward and the Support...

Cross-Asset Strategy: US Q2 reporting delivered soft earnings growth and less upbeat corporate guidance, as corporates are seeing demand...

The U.S. money supply is shrinking for the first time since 1949, as savings deposits decline and the Federal...

Capital Economics  We think the 10-year Treasury yield will end the year well below its current level. The sell-off in...

Keep it simple stunad! Permabears/doomsayers live in a world of predetermined, low probability, negative finality. Bulls/optimists get paid! You...

Price momentum is a key driver of sentiment, especially in a late cycle environment when uncertainty about the outcome...

August has proven itself to be a “Wall of Worry” and the point for which the former “good overbought”...

Question: “How do you perform well over time and never let the volatility deter you?” Answer: “Position long, hope...

The stock market rally off the washed-out lows of early last fall has run further and for longer than...

Welcome to RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast recorded August 7th, 2023. I’m Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy...

The consolidation phase is upon us. It is more recognizably taking place, and as usual, causing investors to doubt...

The month of October gets all the “love,” but since 1990, August has been the cruelest month for stocks....

Those who are unwilling to accept double-digit drawdowns are less likely to receive double-digit returns! Take your drawdown like...

Optimism around a US policy pivot has continued to support valuation. In today’s note, we discuss parallels to prior...

“Experience is what you get when you don’t get what you want.” ~Howard Marks So if you missed the...

Offered below is the latest chart pack from RBC Capital’s chief technical strategist Robert Sluymer. In addition, please continue...

The most painful thing to watch with traders is the belief that markets have to prove something to THEM,...

It was a far less interesting week in the markets than the 2%+ decline in the Nasdaq, on Thursday,...

“While so many worry about trying to grab a few pennies in front of a steamroller… We could be...

As interest rates climb and inflation shows signs of cooling — where are stocks in the market cycle? Equities...

The table has turned. In 2022, the S&P 500 (SPX) and peer indices finished the first half of the...

Remember that valuation is only expensive relative to history, and irrespective of the future! If I might introduce you...

Leading economic indicators continue to slip lower. Yet, bulls, who rightly counseled against “fighting the Fed” during the free-money...

Our weekly State of the Market video and macro-market weekend Research Report are postponed due to holiday weekend. In...

Another quick snapback for markets after breaking a 5-week win streak for the S&P 500 (SPX) and 8-week win...

If Risk Management is priority #1… Is that Opportunity Risk or is that Downside Risk? The threat from the...

The Fed’s June announcement of a pause with further rate hikes to come has extended the uncertainty of whether...

By J.P. Morgan Wealth Management There’s no shortage of worries batting around: the Fed is holding resolute on its...

Macro Strategy—Equity Market Climbs A “Wall Of Worry” Yet Again: Moderating domestic demand growth, big energy price declines, loosening...

Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to...

With the halfway point of 2023 two weeks away, the S&P 500 has broken out to a 12-month high....

As investors debate the merits of generative artificial intelligence, a key question is what it could mean for the...

Welcome back investors! In this weekend’s macro-market Research Report, we intend to catch-up on the markets’ year-to-date performance and...

The Major Trend Index moved up one notch to a net reading of zero (Neutral) in the week ended...

Check out some top-of-mind topics and subject matter surrounding the market ahead of this week’s key economic data and...

 Key takeaways  Bank of America internal data suggests consumer spending was broadly stable in May, with Bank of America...

Echoes Of 2021 Like us, we suspect most of our research clients have at least one or two non-professional...

“If you are not willing to risk the unusual, you will have to settle for the ordinary! Everyone must...

Hotter but shorter cycles persist — we continue to forecast an earnings recession this year that we don’t think...

Good Sunday Finom Group members. As previously mentioned and due to a death in the family, we are not...

Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down. ~Warren Buffett...

We know that historical analogs and averages can be overdone in market analysis, and our statistical approach (and maybe...

Cross-Asset Strategy: Equities rallied to YTD highs on optimism around a US debt ceiling resolution, a move that seems...

Pundits and gurus master the art of going out on a limb without going out on a limb. ~Philip...

Boom! It just got “real”, as the kids say. The boom is the equivalent of the S&P 500 (SPX)...

“Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice and most of all, love of what...

Interactions with clients suggest our 2023 earnings forecast is  now very much out of consensus. This is a change...

There are a great many opinions on the market and the potential outcome/s for the debt ceiling that lay...

Just 10 days ago, the Federal Reserve signaled a likely pause in the rate hiking campaign to fight inflation....

There isn’t much ‘feeling’ on the part of bulls or bears these days. As discussed previously, with seven months...