Nobody said 2025 was going to be easy? Well, maybe the Wall Street strategists implied so with their median...
Happy Holidays to all Finom Group members, and welcome to this weekend’s 3rd Party Research Compilation. During our off-reporting...
Only 1 quarter and 8-trading days into 2025, only about 60 days into the new Trump-led White House administration,...
A troubling macro-market landscape, gripped by an endogenous force-factor has been at play since February. The label of this...
Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders. As this is our off-reporting weekend, please consider the abundance of thoughts, outlooks and...
The Major Trend Index held at a bearish reading of -3 for the week ended March 21st. The net...
Well, we have our answer to last week’s question of the week! “So just how powerful is the current...
The headlines have been exhausting through the Q1 2025 period, whipsawing investors and traders through wild market swings. The...
Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders!! During our off-reporting weekend, please allow some time to read through our...
Whether the title is Lift Off… Not Quite: No Mojo Markets or Year 3 of the Ugly Bull Market, the...
Nobody likes being right about the bad things, but often there is still a good longer-term outcome to recognize...
Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders. During our off-reporting weekend (2 weeks on, 1-week off), please consider our...
So far – so weird, but to-be-expected. One month and 1-week into the New Year and it’s already beginning...
So much of what we do at Finom Group is simply preparation, playing Chess, thinking some 10-steps ahead. Are...
The Rise of DeepSeek: What the Headlines Miss Lennart Heim and Sihao Huang Recent coverage of DeepSeek’s AI models...
Good Sunday Finom Group members, from around the world. During our off-reporting weekend (2 weeks on, 1-week off) this...
Good Wednesday morning investors and traders! As a reminder, this is our Finom Group off-reporting weekend (2 weekends on,...
We are going to commence this weekend's macro-market Research Report by stating something that should be obvious, but based...
Good Wednesday morning investors and traders! Ahead of the official release of the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price...
Only 2-trading weeks into the calendar year and things have become a whole lot tougher for investors. I will...
Good Wednesday morning Finom Group investors and traders! Please consider the following mash-up of 3rd-party Research ahead of this...
Well, it has not been the ideal end or start to calendar years, but somewhat to-be-expected and in accordance...
There are only 2-trading days left in calendar year 2024, and the S&P 500 finished this past week down...
Merry Christmas🎄 investors/traders from around the globe 🌏 There are only 4-trading days left in 2024, 1 of which...
Good Sunday investors/traders from around the globe 🌏 There are only 6-trading days left in 2024, two of which...
With today’s publication, we take a look at some market internals/breadth in order to recognize that while Tech/Growth/QQQs have...
Good Saturday morning Finom Group members! As I (Seth Golden) remain on vacation through December, keep in mind that...
Good Wednesday morning Finom Group investors/traders! As we welcome newer members at this time of year, please consider that...
Good Sunday morning Finom Group members! As I (Seth Golden) remain on vacation through December, keep in mind that...
Welcome to one of 2 videos we will be offering in the month of December 2024. We encourage Finom...
Good weekend investors/traders and happy holidays. As I embark upon my December vacation, please stay connected to our weekly...
The Leuthold Group The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week...
Good morning Finom Group investors/traders. As you traverse the year-end macro-market landscape of developments into 2025, please consider our...
2024 is in its home stretch, with investor and market participants from all walks of life along for the...
Good weekend all! Please take some time to review the thoughts and ideas concerning the macro-market landscape since the...
Capital Economics We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news...
Good weekend all! During our off-reporting weekend, please consider our 3rd-party Research compilation from around Wall Street. Our final...
The Leuthold Group The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 for the week...
Back in the 1980s, Dr. Ed Yardeni popularized the phrasing that concerned an investor population, which was believed to...
Markets: Job openings fell in September according to the latest JOLTS report out today, while our “Take this job...
Welcome back to the Finom Group weekend macro-market Research Report! As a heads-up, I (Seth Golden) will be flying...
The famine in small cap performance that has seen relative returns wither and fade is now in its seventh...
Recall that coming into the month of September, the S&P 500 was on a 4-month positive return winning streak....
Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders! This is our “off-reporting” weekend. Please take some time to read our...
“Good to know” does not mean what we know is altogether practical. Welcome back investors and traders, to more...
by Jim Paulsen, The Tush Push has become a popular play among both NFL and college football teams. ...
Yardeni Research US Economy I: Permabulls Versus Permabears. Some of our best friends are permabears. They are smart...
Welcome back to our Finom Group macro-market Research Report! September and the Q3 2024 period ended on a high...
Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders! While this is our off-reporting weekend, and we’ll be back at it again next...
My wife’s great grandmother died this year aged 100. Ida Beckett, this is your life (in US stock returns):...
The first rate cut is out of the way, but most were denying the majority probability spelling out a...
The Leuthold Group The Major Trend Index continues to oscillate within its neutral zone. There have been no...
Hindsight is 20/20, as they say, but regret is front of mind and stickier than even inflation proposes. When...
This coming week is important, given the Presidential debate on Tuesday evening (9pm ET). And as we look ahead,...
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: The August jobs report came in at +142k (vs Street +165k) and the unemployment rate fell...
If you would like to watch this week’s video blog, please feel free to click the provided link! Have...
Sarcastically speaking, it’s a bit humorous how the recession vibes from early August have almost disappeared by the end...
The Major Trend Index remained at a Neutral reading of zero in the week ended August 23rd. The MTI...
Welcome Finom Group investors and traders! During our off-reporting weekend, we offer the latest insights and analysis from Wall...
This coming week is the most important week for August 2024 because of the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed...
Goldman Sachs Weekly Market Mashup Goldman Sachs’ Scott Rubner Nvidia Outlook
If there has been a lesson from the markets over the last several weeks and since the mid-July all-time...
Well, it definitely got worse before it got better, or got flat for the week. This was largely our...
J.P. Morgan’s Mike Ferolli Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Bank Of America’s Savita Subramanian
Some macroeconomic storm clouds are brewing. Markets are fleeing for shelter in Treasuries, leaving behind almost everything else, including...
The Major Trend Index held at a Neutral reading for the week ended July 26th. A second consecutive weekly...
Another difficult week for the large-cap indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ), which both fell...
If it’s been said once it has been said millions of times, “everyone would be a buyer if stocks...
by Tom Lee The major event over the weekend is the failed assassination attempt against former President Trump. This...
Please take some time to read this weekend’s 3rd party Research from DataTrek, Merrill Lynch and Fundstrat. We will...
Scott Rubner, Managing Director Goldman Sachs This is the last bullish US Equity email that I will be sending...
Many investors have become quite frustrated by the stock markets’ performance relative to their own portfolio performance. 2024 is...
Macro Strategy—European Equity Risks Increase, Caution Still Warranted: Last month’s European Union (EU) parliamentary elections have marked a turning...
Macro Strategy—Soft Landing in Progress?: U.S. economic growth remains sturdy, and favorable recent inflation dynamics give the Federal Reserve...
Although the S&P 500 (SPX) would achieve a new, intraday all-time high this past week (Friday), it would fail...
S&P 500 and QQQ both showed minor weakness late this week, yet failed to do much technical damage. Both...
The Leuthold Group: Not Normal The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a Neutral reading of zero for the...
We’ve often said at Finom Group, “When the market doesn’t produce the higher probability outcome.” And that probability is...
Small Cap investing remains an exercise in futility, with the Russell 2000 already trailing the S&P 500 by more...
Did The Fed Already Pull It Off To watch our State of the Market Heading Into 2H 2024 video,...
Two-Hundred Years of Market Concentration in the United States Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data Investors have...
Good weekend to all Finom Group members! During our off-reporting weekend, please find the following reporting from RBC Capital...
Throughout this bull market, stock investors have bemoaned an incessant lack of breadth. Leadership has been remarkably narrow. The...
They have been proclaiming a slowing labor and employment market for weeks, if not months. Has the Unemployment Rate...
Who could have predicted 🔮 this past Friday’s intraday price action and how the day ultimately concluded? Well, calling...
Wall Street colloquialisms are rarely justified by data or proven a valid consideration. “Sell in May and Go Away”...
Merrill Lynch: IN THIS ISSUE Macro Strategy—Is Stagflation Likely?: With inflation stubbornly high after briefly surpassing levels not seen...
The Major Trend Index remained at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended May 17th. While...
Nothing moves sentiment more than price! You’ve probably heard that phrasing before? The phrasing basically suggests that despite all...
Welcome back Finom Group investors and traders! A 3-week decline and then a 3-week rally; what does it mean?...
Public Service Announcement: Watch The VIDEO HERE! Bear markets happen, on average, once every 4.1 years. There have been...
Dr. Ed Yardeni Go figure: Stocks & bonds sold off on Tuesday following a hotter-than-expected Q1 Employment Cost Index...
Welcome back ladies and gentlemen! This weekend’s Research Report will be abbreviated, as we maintain our outlook for 2024,...
Try telling an investor that April is typically one of the absolute best months of the year for market...
Good weekend to all ‼️ This weekend is our off-reporting weekend but we continue to deliver market insights, analysis,...
After last week’s inflation and jobs reports, the debate rages on about what the Fed will do with interest...
Last week was “stress test” of sorts for equity markets. The combination of “hot” ISM, coupled with Fed members...
It was a strange week in the markets. Bears and Bulls made little progress, but bears are seemingly more...
Are private sector balance sheets, income & profits, liquidity, and pessimism simply too strong to have a recession? By...
As we construct this weekend’s macro-market Research Report, the February Personal Income & Expenditures (PCE) data has been released....
As a reminder, this is Finom Group’s off-reporting weekend, however we continue to disseminate relevant and trusted 3rd-party research...
If there is 1-thing I’ve learned from the markets over my 24 years, it’s that down is going to...
While the Nvidia hype would make you believe the company owns and drives the entire AI narrative, investors would...
That’s a newer development for the market rally, down 2 consecutive weeks. Whether or not this detraction from the...
To suggest that the rally off of the October 27, 2023 low has been impressive probably does not do...
The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended March 1st....
Good weekend Finom Group traders/investors! While this is our off-reporting weekend (no proprietary Research Report), we aim to deliver...
As the rally has rolled onward and upward, not everyone will achieve markedly satisfying results. Essentially, there will be...
Welcome back to this weekend’s Research Report! This weekend’s Report is in PDF format due to issues the Host was having...
If there is 1 thing I’ve learned from the markets over my 23 years, it’s that down is going...
Based solely on calendar patterns, January’s S&P 500 gain is a mild positive for stocks over the remaining months...
Good Sunday and welcome back Finom Group investors and traders. “Steady as she goes” or “So far so good?”...
With the S&P 500 having recently ascended to a fresh record high after such a strong 2023, it’s natural...
Welcome back investors/traders! After a rocky start to January 2024, both price and equity market sentiment have renewed bullishness...
Plunging Core Inflation and Slower Growth will Force the Fed’s Hand * The risk of recession persists, though our...
No matter how many different data sets, seasonal patterns, election cycle studies we look at, they all point to...
Sentiment: Plenty of believers = tactical risk in early 2024 Sentiment indicators such as Farrell Sentiment, asset manager S&P...
Three big things you need to know: First, across the globe most of our analysts are optimistic on performance...
Some of the 21st century’s biggest breakthroughs are happening in health care, transforming the way we diagnose, treat and...
Welcome back investors and traders! This past week proved a pretty strong bounce-back week for markets after the prior...
As we entered 2024, investors have been told that just because the calendar changes that doesn’t mean the market...
The Major Trend Index held at a neutral reading of zero in the week ended December 22nd. Bullish market...
We discuss: how S&P 500 valuation is very reasonable as we enter 2024 and this is particularly notable when...
IT’S OFFICIAL! The S&P 500 has achieved our year-end price target of 4,750, formerly disseminated within our weekly Research...
By Robert Sluymer CMT Equity markets are resolving 2-year trading ranges to the upside – Further upside likely in...
S&P 500’s annual return after a NEGATIVE RETURN year. Average return the next year = 18%. Remember, however, the...
By Ellen Zetner chief U.S. ecoomist: We expect the Fed to hold the policy rate at 5.375% and to...
In 2023, the S&P 500 gained 20% yet most investors sat on the sidelines as many expected the U.S....
Most of the measures in the MTI’s Sentiment category—including the Bullish Sentiment of stock market newsletter writers—are interpreted in...
Since the start of the rate hike cycle in 2022, regional business cycles have weakened, earnings growth has stagnated...
Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders. As a reminder, throughout the month of December, our chief equity market...
Context and Comprehension are Key 🔑 A woman without her man is nothing! A woman: without her, man is...
CTAs’ net long position in USD/JPY cut by half from its recent peak Macro hedge funds may act on...
Seasonal trends are mostly about knowing where to look… and when! For this weekend Research note we are going...
NVIDIA reported Oct results (revenue/GMs/EPS ) well above consensus and off of a higher Oct-Qtr revenue base, the team...
The Major Trend Index moved up to the neutral zone in the week ended November 17th, winding up a...
At a time when some are calling for a pause on the development of generative artificial intelligence, Jensen Huang,...
How about them Small-caps? How about that follow-through? How about the 3-week rally which has seen the S&P 500...
The Leuthold Group tactical accounts remain positioned defensively, although not to the extent they could be given the bearish...
The last two trading weeks have not made the bulls whole, but have certainly slashed the hopes of those...
In January, the “inventor” of the yield-curve indicator—Campbell Harvey of Duke University—suggested that the inversion of the 10Y/3M spread...
Nobody, not once, not ever, said it would be easy to make money in the financial markets as an...
Equity sentiment declined for the first time since May Our Sell Side Indicator (SSI) is a contrarian sentiment barometer...
Since our publication of Cost of Higher for Longer in February, we have seen interest rates across the curve...
9 key macro events this week, but Treasury refunding most important arguably. Incoming data likely soft-ish which should help...
The war between Hamas and Israel – and the potential for escalation to the wider region – has increased...
Markets are showing increasing stress, deteriorating market internals/breadth, and investors will advantage themselves with a game plan. Check out...
While there are plenty of events and fundamental data points worth considering, we find many remain fixated on the...
There was a great deal of concern for the manner in which the equity markets closed the week, 2...
A Note: Structurally, the market needs breadth to improve this week, which demands improved performance from Equal-Weights and Small-Caps!...
Despite another positive weekly performance by the S&P 500 (SPX) this past trading week, it didn’t really feel that...
In lieu of our regularly scheduled State of the Market video analysis, this week we offer a general public...
Fiscal constraints limit policy response at a time when cyclical risks persist. Market breadth reflects this dynamic as the...
The analysis and Research within comes via the monthly Macro-Memo from RBC Capital Wealth Advisors: We have been predicting...
The weekend is where many a discipline and devoted investor/portfolio manager spend most of their free time in the...
“The most important financial lessons aren’t learned slowly during bull markets. They are seared into your brain in bear...
1. The economy is holding up better than expected, but recession risk remains. In the third quarter, easing inflation...
Thank goodness that is over with; September and the historically weaker returns associated with Q3 are complete! The period...
On markets, not much has changed since our August Rasputin piece. While most leading indicators point to weaker US...
In my conversations over the years with retail investors — many of whom are novices (not that there’s anything...
Key takeaways Soft landing (47% Bearish signals vs 58% in Sep-22), but still below-trend outlook; mfg take-off unlikely before...
September is very much living up to its usual swooning of price action, and finding investors recoiling. The seasonality...
Let’s begin with a mea culpa. In my note of 18 May 2023, I wrote that the risk/reward for equities...
A “soft landing” for the economy in the US seems increasingly possible, so we look back at previous similar episodes...
The explosion of interest in artificial intelligence this year has fueled a major rally in technology stocks, with a concentrated group...
Let’s not blow things out of proportion, as the first full trading week of September and month-to-date returns are...
The Paradox: The #1 concern for most investors/traders forces the diversification of a portfolio, which ultimately and perpetually underperforms...
RBC Capital’s chief market strategist Lori Calvasina: Welcome to RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast recording August 28th, 2023. I’m...
Well, it looks like I’ll be the only one at Finom Group working this weekend. Edward and the Support...
Cross-Asset Strategy: US Q2 reporting delivered soft earnings growth and less upbeat corporate guidance, as corporates are seeing demand...
The U.S. money supply is shrinking for the first time since 1949, as savings deposits decline and the Federal...
Capital Economics We think the 10-year Treasury yield will end the year well below its current level. The sell-off in...
Keep it simple stunad! Permabears/doomsayers live in a world of predetermined, low probability, negative finality. Bulls/optimists get paid! You...
Price momentum is a key driver of sentiment, especially in a late cycle environment when uncertainty about the outcome...
August has proven itself to be a “Wall of Worry” and the point for which the former “good overbought”...
Question: “How do you perform well over time and never let the volatility deter you?” Answer: “Position long, hope...
The stock market rally off the washed-out lows of early last fall has run further and for longer than...
Welcome to RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast recorded August 7th, 2023. I’m Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy...
The consolidation phase is upon us. It is more recognizably taking place, and as usual, causing investors to doubt...
The month of October gets all the “love,” but since 1990, August has been the cruelest month for stocks....
Those who are unwilling to accept double-digit drawdowns are less likely to receive double-digit returns! Take your drawdown like...
Optimism around a US policy pivot has continued to support valuation. In today’s note, we discuss parallels to prior...
“Experience is what you get when you don’t get what you want.” ~Howard Marks So if you missed the...
Offered below is the latest chart pack from RBC Capital’s chief technical strategist Robert Sluymer. In addition, please continue...
The most painful thing to watch with traders is the belief that markets have to prove something to THEM,...
It was a far less interesting week in the markets than the 2%+ decline in the Nasdaq, on Thursday,...
“While so many worry about trying to grab a few pennies in front of a steamroller… We could be...
As interest rates climb and inflation shows signs of cooling — where are stocks in the market cycle? Equities...
The table has turned. In 2022, the S&P 500 (SPX) and peer indices finished the first half of the...
Remember that valuation is only expensive relative to history, and irrespective of the future! If I might introduce you...
Leading economic indicators continue to slip lower. Yet, bulls, who rightly counseled against “fighting the Fed” during the free-money...
Our weekly State of the Market video and macro-market weekend Research Report are postponed due to holiday weekend. In...
Another quick snapback for markets after breaking a 5-week win streak for the S&P 500 (SPX) and 8-week win...
If Risk Management is priority #1… Is that Opportunity Risk or is that Downside Risk? The threat from the...
The Fed’s June announcement of a pause with further rate hikes to come has extended the uncertainty of whether...
By J.P. Morgan Wealth Management There’s no shortage of worries batting around: the Fed is holding resolute on its...
Macro Strategy—Equity Market Climbs A “Wall Of Worry” Yet Again: Moderating domestic demand growth, big energy price declines, loosening...
Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to...
With the halfway point of 2023 two weeks away, the S&P 500 has broken out to a 12-month high....
As investors debate the merits of generative artificial intelligence, a key question is what it could mean for the...
Welcome back investors! In this weekend’s macro-market Research Report, we intend to catch-up on the markets’ year-to-date performance and...
The Major Trend Index moved up one notch to a net reading of zero (Neutral) in the week ended...
Check out some top-of-mind topics and subject matter surrounding the market ahead of this week’s key economic data and...
Key takeaways Bank of America internal data suggests consumer spending was broadly stable in May, with Bank of America...
Echoes Of 2021 Like us, we suspect most of our research clients have at least one or two non-professional...
“If you are not willing to risk the unusual, you will have to settle for the ordinary! Everyone must...
Hotter but shorter cycles persist — we continue to forecast an earnings recession this year that we don’t think...
Good Sunday Finom Group members. As previously mentioned and due to a death in the family, we are not...
Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down. ~Warren Buffett...
We know that historical analogs and averages can be overdone in market analysis, and our statistical approach (and maybe...
Cross-Asset Strategy: Equities rallied to YTD highs on optimism around a US debt ceiling resolution, a move that seems...
Pundits and gurus master the art of going out on a limb without going out on a limb. ~Philip...
Boom! It just got “real”, as the kids say. The boom is the equivalent of the S&P 500 (SPX)...
“Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice and most of all, love of what...
Interactions with clients suggest our 2023 earnings forecast is now very much out of consensus. This is a change...
There are a great many opinions on the market and the potential outcome/s for the debt ceiling that lay...
Just 10 days ago, the Federal Reserve signaled a likely pause in the rate hiking campaign to fight inflation....
There isn’t much ‘feeling’ on the part of bulls or bears these days. As discussed previously, with seven months...
Long-term trends and short-term emotions are both powerful. Former can build wealth, latter can sabotage that effort. ~Brian G...
Waking From A Slumber? We’re very skeptical that the rally from last October’s low represents the first leg of...
Technically Vulnerable? For this week’s segment of “Looking at the charts/quants”, we’ll lead with the most perfect of quant...
Soooooo… feels like the market is running in place, right? Since hitting its initial 2023 high on February 2nd...
“It’s one thing to have forecasts, but if you can’t get what’s going on right now correct, there’s no...
Investors’ belief in a 2H EPS recovery is growing amid a stronger than expected reporting season. Meanwhile, the recent...
By Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—The Calm Before the Storm? Economic indicators continue to support our view that U.S. growth...
The big money is made in waiting and simplicity. Not in overactivity and complexity. ~Brian G of Alphacharts You...
The coming week will prove a meaningful earnings week, as the Mega-cap Growth companies will be reporting their quarterly...
While we are forgoing our traditional State of the Market recording and process, please review our latest video (link...
It really feels like the markets have not traveled too low or too high since hitting their peaks in...
“It’s not that optimism solves all of life’s problems; it is just that it can sometimes make the difference...
By Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—Deep Credit Restraint Likely In The Pipeline: Rapid-fire Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes...
In recent years, we’ve supplemented our longstanding normalized earnings technique with the simpler method of referencing any past peak...
David Tepper was once asked about his thoughts on Gold and whether or not it has a place in...
by Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Company Recent increase in Fed balance sheet is not QE, in our view…Many...
What a quarter, right? The Q1 2023 period was a rollercoaster ride unlike any in recent history, as the...
If you came to the markets in 2008, that you likely will relate everything since and to come to...
By Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Team With bond markets questioning the Fed’s dot plot, bond volatility has increased...
Macro Strategy—Time to End Quantitative Tightening Fast Approaching: Quantitative tightening (QT) has reached its limits in the regional banking...
Avoid at all costs: If you’re bullish on the markets you are probably only digesting bullish data points. If...
With the back-stopping of bank deposits by the Fed/FDIC, many equity investors are asking if this is another form...
There is never a time to not be honest with oneself as an investor/trader. We should always remain objective...
The non-seasonally adjusted headline CPI eased for an eighth consecutive month to 6.0% in February (Chart 1). The seasonally...
By Ian Shephardson of Pantheon Macro Economic Slowing Wage Gains will Give the Fed Room to Pause, but not...
I don’t know that there were many investors/traders who anticipated the route in markets this past week, but there...
Critical Technical Support Holds This week’s note will be shorter than normal given the Tech playbook note we also...
Slower spending growth in February The growth in Bank of America credit and debit card spending per household decelerated...
To achieve long-term success over many financial market and economic cycles, observing a few rules is not enough. Too...
by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomic ADP and JOLTS are Unreliable Guides to Labor Market Trends The record of...
For those disappointed that February’s employment report won’t be released until March 10th, we have something to consider in...
Can’t say it hasn’t been an interesting Q1 2023, right? With the New Year getting off to a sizzling...
All intelligent investing is value investing, acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in...
by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomics The first indication that January’s warmer-than usual weather would boost economic activity was...
Humans are addicted to doomsday narratives. I’ve noticed that sometimes people WANT things to be worse than they are,...
Stepping back from the January noise, the trends in core economic activity data are discouraging. It’s unrealistic to think...
We only know what we know! In the future, we’ll know more through experiences or dedicated educational exercises, or...
Good day Finom Group members. As I continue to recover from my illness early this year (cough/cold), we will...
Core Services Inflation is Sticky, but the Fed is Exerting a Lot of Pressure Core CPI services inflation is...
Cross-Asset Strategy: With equities trading near last summer’s highs and at above-average multiples, despite weakening earnings and the recent...
Larger narrative is Fed “disinflation” is a massive course correction. Strong Jan equity returns borrowing from Feb, but dip...
To take a page out of last weekend’s Research Report, let’s highlight the theme centered on the probability of...
“During his tenure Lynch trounced the market overall and beat it in most years, racking up a 29 percent...
Macro Strategy—Fixed Income Positioning: Be Circumspect and Mind the Disconnect: For the past several months, risk assets including credit...
If you would like to watch our weekly State of the Market video, please click the provided link...
The ECI is the best measure of wage growth, but you still need to look under the hood, not...
Doug Ramsey Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager: Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC, and...
Chief Investment Office Macro Strategy Team at Merrill Lynch: Macro Strategy—Treasury Offsetting QT Until Mid-Year: The looming debt ceiling...
Yield curve is the most inverted in decades, yet many parts of the market are making new 52-week highs....
The bull vs. bear battle wagered on this past trading week, as the bears attempted to wrestle back into...
Bear markets are like a Hall of Mirrors, designed to confuse investors and take their money. Trust YOUR fundamental...
January 13, 2023 by Doug Ramsey of Leuthold Group This year is off to a much stronger start than...
While we can’t be sure that the bear market ended on October 13, 2022, with the S&P 500 falling...
“Keep It Simple Stunad for 2023: Market will be well beyond your comfort-BUY level by the time your defined...
Market veterans know there’s just one thing more probable than a recession after the yield curve inverts: Yield curve...
Last year proved a painful time to be an investor, and for the most part, it didn’t matter what...
Introduction The U.S. economy will struggle in 2023 with halting growth and higher unemployment. Recession is a serious threat....
When you believe in a future that is so alive in your mind that you keep living it over...
Despite all the uncertainty across today’s global capital markets, we are poised to enter 2023 with a more constructive...
by Barry Napp Our 2022 outlook note was titled Inflation Politics & Policy and began with a section titled “liquidity...
The 2022 bear market will be remembered as a year when collapsing growth stock valuations and rising interest rates...
What does “back to the new future” mean? The era of quantitative easing and a quick trigger Fed easing...
Approaching the end of the year, it is natural to wonder: What lies ahead? Where does this road lead?...
This week’s focus is likely to be centered on CPI and the Fed. To us, that is yesterday’s news;...
The Federal Reserve has not yet begun easing, but “Easing” is a multi-dimensional event, and increasingly, the outlines of...
In The Illusion of Knowledge (September 2022), I railed against macro forecasting, which in our profession mostly concerns the next year...
I’ve gathered a few ideas from several of my memos this year – plus some recent musings and conversations...
By: Doug Ramsey Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC,...
Absolute best investors I’ve encountered aren’t successful because they predicted the trend or the macro-outlook, but because they have...
2023 Global Economic Outlook • With financial conditions tightening and the winter aggravating China’s COVID and Europe’s natural gas...
There is still considerable debate about whether the bear market has yet set its low. Certainly, if the U.S....
Cross-Asset Strategy: The October US CPI release delivered the largest downward inflation surprise since the start of the pandemic,...
By Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group Inflation has been slowing for the last several months and finally appeared...
If you are not willing to risk the unusual, you will have to settle for the ordinary! Everyone must...
Ahead of the holiday and turn of year period, Morgan Stanley publishes their outlook for 2023. The outlook is...
Investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game! ~Ben Graham If...
With each passing week in 2022, we analyze, scrutinize, and rationalize a litany of macro-fundamental, technical, and quantitative data....
“Time in the market” is only a benefit if the market is heading in a positive direction. Otherwise, idleness...
Since at least Jackson Hole, the narrative has been that inflation is a big problem, and the Federal Reserve...
What a week, month I mean. The first three quarters of 2022 have been disasterous for investors of all...
“Do you know what investing for the long run, but listening to market news everyday is like? It’s like...
Last week’s tactical bullish call was met with doubt from clients, which means there is still upside as we...
“The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan. Stick to the good plan.”...
Unfortunately our monthly-cycle, weekend macro-market Research Report will be postponed until Sunday October 30, 2022, due to an unexpected...
I’ll be flying solo for this weekend’s Research Report, as Edward is off this weekend. So forgive any shortcomings...
Everything you need to know about what separates the big winners from everyone else. “Signals” are sexy, exciting and...
Welcome back Finom Group members! As we kick-off the monthly reporting cycle, we are recognizing gains for the first...
Hardest thing for most traders/investors to do is to pull the trigger and execute the trade. They put risk...
Cross-asset Strategy: Stocks and bonds continued to sell off last week on central bank hawkishness. The hawkish Fed outcome...
In roughly the last 10 trading sessions, the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMPQ) have lost 10% of their...
The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, and the greater the upside. ~George...
Morgan Stanley: Weekly Warm-up: Prices Starting to Reflect the Building Evidence for Deeper EPS Cuts
As the evidence builds around our more bearish earnings outlook, the stock market has traded lower again. While we...
Markets are firmly in the thrawls of another September swoon, which is all-too familiar and painful for many investors....
Bear markets are about buying value! Bull markets are about realized profits for value seekers! In other words: “INVESTORS...
Welcome back Finom Group traders and investors. As most are aware, the rollercoaster ride that is the 2022 investing...
From inside Oaktree Financial Services monthly newsletter, written by famed investor Howard Marks. Here’s an excerpt from an excellent...
1H22 was challenging for most risk assets as the Fed pivoted more sharply than most expected. The de-rating for...
Macro Strategy—QT Kicks into Second Gear: Financial conditions are likely to remain under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed)...
In 1987 shortly after Black Monday Peter Lynch was interviewed about the minimal hedging incorporated within the Magellan Fund:...
Chair Powell and the Fed make it crystal clear that their job fighting inflation remains unfinished. Ironically, while bonds...
With consecutive down weeks for the markets and the manner in which this past Friday played out for investors,...
In bull markets, investors are blind to the risks. In bear markets, investors are blind to the opportunities ~...
A 4-week winning streak has come to an end for markets. As reported in last week’s Research Report, this...
If this were a Bear Market Rally then the S&P 500 gain of +17.19% off the decline of -23.55%...
Welcome back to our weekly Research Report cycle (3-weeks on, 1 week off). The markets are expressing a very...
If we know that bad times are temporary and progress is undefeated, why is it so hard to stay...
The rise in inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it has been a real headwind for valuations this year....
Macro Strategy—Powell On A Mission: U.S. policymakers responded to the pandemic shutdowns with the most aggressive fiscal and monetary...
So this just happened: The S&P 500 gained 3.9% from the day of the Fed hike through the following...
“Waiting helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. If you didn’t...
Key talking points Aggregate retail inventories have been steadily improving as demand for goods moderates and supply chain bottlenecks...
It’s difficult to be too optimistic with another 75bps rate hike (almost certainly) coming next week, and especially given...
“Bear market rallies are labeled because things get so badly discounted they foster the idea that it has to...
While Defensives are the clear leader, most investors aren’t there, leaving more upside potential as earnings cuts begin. Counter-trend...
A big WELCOME BACK to all of our Finom Group members, as we kick-off another monthly cycle of Research...
A very strong US dollar provides yet another headwind for earnings. Meanwhile, from a historical perspective, this bear market...
Cross-Asset Strategy: While growth risks are elevated, our base case looks for an acceleration in global growth in the...
Macro Strategy—Volatile Times Ahead: Untethered money-supply fluctuations have created a new, more volatile environment for asset allocation. Until the...
Key talking points Bank of America aggregated credit and debit card spending was up 11% year-over-year (YoY) in June....
Fear dominates in times that are especially uncomfortable. Bear market, recession, yield curve inversion, whatever….Negative focus/thinking is a self-perpetuating...
The S&P 500 finished the month of June down -15%+ over the last 3 months and -20%+ over the...
Behavioral Finance tells us that you can broadly think of your happiness as just “Reality minus Expectations”. H =...
Key talking points We take a look at how consumers have historically adjust their spending during recessions and compare...
The S&P 500 (SPX) rallied sharply this past week, gaining 6.45 percent. This is the second 6%+ weekly gain...
When you feel like giving up, realize that at that very moment, you are at the same fork in...
With our view for lower multiples and earnings now more consensus, the markets are more fairly priced. However, it...
The great Q1 2022 earnings have proven the forward-looking nature of markets. I’m kicking-off this weekend’s Research Report with...
Equity Risk Premium holds key inputs/ingredients After major market sell-offs, it becomes increasingly difficult to achieve lower-lows. They are...
Cross-Asset Strategy: Friday’s strong CPI print that led to a surge in yields, along with the sell-off in crypto...
Macro Strategy—Inflation Dimming Economic Outlook: On multiple levels, including strong labor demand, decades-low household leverage, lack of excesses on...
“People who succeed in the stock market also accept periodic losses, setbacks, and unexpected occurrences. Calamitous drops do not...
Cross-Asset Strategy: The growth-policy tradeoff appears set to improve in 2H, and earnings revisions turned broadly positive in key...
The headlines were daunting and played out in price action this past week much as the first 100+ days...
Due to a scheduling conflict, there will not be a weekly SOTM this week. We anticipate being back...
Many investors and traders were left feeling quite dejected the previous week, as a 6-week losing streak for the...
Trading this market can be quite frustrating, with historically high likelihood setups repeatedly failing. I keep myself sane by...
Welcome back traders and investors! I thought it a better way to kick-off this weekend’s Research Report, given the...
EVERY BEAR MARKET EVER FOMO turns into, GIDOT (glad I don’t own that), everyone claims they were raising cash...
‘Fire’ AND ‘ice’ persist in the US…Monetary policy continues to tighten as confirmation emerges that growth is slowing (PMIs...
By the team at Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—Global Growth Weakening Fast, Fed On Track To Make Matters Worse: The...
Bears from 2009-2021: “A crash is coming!” Bears in 2022: “I told you so!” ~Douglas Boneparth NOBODY...
Paul F. Desmond Lowry’s Reports Inc. 26 February 2002 Ask one hundred investors whether this is a bull...
Within last weekend’s Research Report, the following was offered: “We are in unprecedented market waters and as such our...
I bought Alibaba when everyone was selling it. I knew about the headlines, the China-tech crackdowns, and the inherent...
J.P. Morgan: Pro-risk stance reinforced by extreme investor negativity, China easing and Q1 earnings
Cross-asset Strategy: Investor sentiment is reaching extreme weakness, with the AAII bull-bear survey metric recording its lowest reading since...
After a first quarter decline for the major averages, and during a midterm election year, it became clear that...
Bear markets start one of two ways, and we don’t think either cause is present currently. We call them...
With defensive stocks now expensive and offering little absolute upside, the S&P500 appears ready to join the ongoing bear...
A midterm election cycle and year 2 of a Presidential cycle with rising rates and potentially peak inflation have...
The best hedges are cash and time, which work in tandem! The answer to fear of downside risk is...
A lot has been going on in markets – aggressive Fed talk scaring investors, runaway commodity prices, war in...
No Clear Path to Easier Financial Conditions Financial conditions are a key transmission mechanism for monetary policy and geopolitical...
Our goal as a trader is to push aside FOMO. Create a bubble for yourself, shut out the noise!...
When stocks and bonds send mixed signals, we listen to stocks more attentively. The underlying message is clear: Stay...
A 3-week winning streak for equities came to an end for the S&P 500 (SPX) this past week. April...
“I recommend the S&P 500 index fund and have for a long, long time to people,” billionaire investor Warren...
Cross-asset Strategy: While the geopolitical crisis and policy tightening are overhangs, risk assets have a number of supports that...
The equity markets are on a 3-week winning streak, which is hard to accept given the quarter still ended...
WAR is stressing global supply chains, inflation rises yet the S&P 500 went RISK-ON over the last two weeks!...
With the Fed’s hawkish pivot, the first part half of our long standing narrative of Fire and Ice has...
Midterm election years are difficult trading years, but reliably strong investing years, as they setup the compounding effect. More...
“The market indexes may have bottomed, but keep in mind, making a low, forming a bottom and reaching the...
Macro Strategy—No Respite For The Weary: After two years of a pandemic, the world now has to deal with...
Every time the market falls a little, we worry it’s going to fall a lot. ~Michael Batnick When it...
Cross-Asset Strategy: As geopolitical risks intensified over the past month, our OWs in Commodities and Energy stocks outperformed, while...
“Bear markets do not end until: 1) sellers have panicked; and 2) buyers are panicked to buy again.” ~The...
Powell made it clear the Fed will do whatever is necessary to maintain price stability which means tighter financial...
This trading week was probably highly frustrating for a great many traders and investors alike. For anyone trying to...
“When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping” is true for investors. Income-oriented investors have always been advised...
Under a framework of knowns and unknowns, the world is a confusing place right now with the Russian invasion...
The market is testing investors and traders alike. That is what the market tends to do during corrections; it...
The world is now forced into the calculating of a new reality, one that may not be easily compared...
Fear and uncertainty building short-term but so many resolved near term In the first two months of 2022, a...
This past trading week was met with more disappointment for the bulls, as a usually strong February monthly Options...
Part of successful investing is the ability to be able to forsake instant gratification and embrace delayed gratification! Not...
With the focus on inflation and the Fed now an obsession, it’s time to pivot to growth and how...
Merrill Lynch: Macro Risk Macro Strategy—Risky Business (Cycle): We believe the probability of a recession this year is low...
“The S&P 500 has not bottomed in the months of January – May when it has finished the year...
We continue to be more focused on what growth is going to do rather than rates and believe investors...
While certain individual stocks demonstrated massive downside moves this past week, the indices managed a consecutive weekly gain. In...
“At the bottom, stocks will be cheap and no one will care.” ~Bob Farrell “When it’s time to buy,...
Cross-asset Strategy: The equity market sell-off is overdone in our view, and we reiterate our call to buy the...
“If falling 10% in stocks over a couple weeks is too much volatility for you, then being up 25%...
“An investor’s job is not to avoid the pain but to endure it.” If you would like to...
With the Fed’s pivot now well understood and appreciated, investor attention now turns to growth which is slowing faster...
It is not often that Finom Group is tasked with delivering a pessimistic interim outlook, but technicals are delivering...
“Buying on red days is where longterm profits begin! 90%+ of investors/traders are dedicated to finding problems in a...
Our new Fed forecast simply brings forward our call for lower equity valuations and raises the risk in the...
Macro Strategy—Expansion and Profits Growth to Continue in 2022: Current Federal Reserve (Fed) projections and the leads and lags...
“Anyone can get lucky for a short period of time. But consistent outperformance over long periods is probably evidence...
With all the attention on rate moves so far this year, investors may soon shift that focus to growth....
After 3 consecutive years of double-digit returns for investors who stayed the course, through the ups and downs, downs...
“If you can’t pull the trigger on stocks here it may be because you’re focused on the next 3%...
A new year brings new investment opportunities even if the narrative isn’t changing. We still recommend a large cap...
The way Technicians feel about Fundamentals is the way Quants feel about Technicians!! Know which discipline aligns mostly with...
7 GENERAL PRINCIPLES: What is evidence-based research 1. Nothing new under the sun: Importance of looking at cycles 2....
Macro Strategy—The U.S. trade-weighted dollar remains overvalued, much as we anticipated one year ago, and may well be able...
Ease is a greater threat to progress than hardship ~ Denzel Washington If you want to view our weekly...
While expected, we think the Fed’s pivot to a more aggressive tapering schedule poses a larger risk for asset...
Key Metrics Earnings Growth: For Q4 2021, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 21.2%. If...
Look for further upside in 2022, the cycle is far from finished… the dip driven by new variant scare...
A new COVID variant started the ruckus for markets, but we view that as secondary to the real culprit—the...
Who needs a reset? Is it the S&P 500 (SPX), the forward price/earnings (P/E) multiple, the Nasdaq (COMPQ), the...
Spend 2 seconds on FinTwit and you’ll see why equities fell 5% in Sept, rose 10% in Oct and...
Macro Strategy—Businesses have responded to unprecedented U.S. consumer-demand strength and rising capacity utilization rates by bringing real equipment investment...
This week, we provide feedback to our 2022 Outlook—spoiler alert—there wasn’t as much as usual. Meanwhile, consumers are opening...
Since the S&P 500’s 8-day win streak ended on November 8th, I think we can say that the market...
“Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you...
With financial conditions tightening and earnings growth slowing, the 12-month risk/reward for the broad indices looks unattractive at current...
We’re back! It has been a couple of weeks since our last weekly Research Report, but we hope some...
Market participants can access data points; access is NOT the struggle. The struggle is in the SEQUENCING of data...
The US equity market continues to ride the wave of liquidity and seasonal FOMO. As we approach our bull...
With just 2 months remaining in the 2021 trading year, investors are gearing up for the typical seasonal tailwinds,...
“The speculator fights his own good sense, struggles against his own will … and is at odds with his...
Growth is slowing for both the economy and earnings and is unlikely to bottom until 1H2022. Meanwhile, earnings revisions...
Welcome back traders and investors. New highs, new highs and not quite new highs. What am I referring to?...
“One-half of life is luck; the other half is discipline — and that’s the important half, for without discipline...
Markets rallied again this past week, but finished on a high note unlike the previous week’s rally. The S&P...
Patient, tactical, resourced, and disciplined investors are always rewarded! Manage those characteristics and you will “massage” your returns higher!...
With the Fire portion of our Fire and Ice thesis playing out, we await the timing and magnitude of...
Welcome back traders and investors! It is still a tricky, and muddled trading landscape. We have entered the 4th...
Maintaining good disciplines during price consolidation periods: 1. Are the “yea buts” greater than a self-induced economic shutdown and...
Cross-Asset Strategy: As we indicated in a previous report, a combination of a strong recovery in demand, easy policy,...
“In this business, if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right...
Markets to continue following the path of COVID recovery Cross-asset Strategy: Risk markets recovered from the technical sell-off, as...
Scary prescient, scary! I’m referring to what our chief market strategist Seth Golden wrote in last week’s Research Report....
“We have to acknowledge that overall breadth is weaker than it was during the biggest market drawdown during Q1...
The significant breadth strength of the 2020-2021 bull market has provided investors with a tremendous advance since the March...
“I don’t think you can get to be a really good investor over a broad range without doing a...
Welcome back Finom Group traders and investors! Two weeks ago the markets struggled, but still managed to eek out...
Keep it simple and know your ABC’s of investing: Always, Buy, Corrections!! If you would like to watch...
Macro Strategy—Trends from around the world show supply chain bottlenecks have been holding back global growth to a degree...
The S&P 500 Index is up to a record 53 new all-time highs by the end August, topping...
With the S&P 500 up more than 20% YTD, alpha has been harder to generate this year. Having the...
“It’s easier to know what’s going to happen than when it’s going to happen” ~ Dan Rasmussen “Stop focusing...
Disappointing retail sales and consumer sentiment suggest the US consumer is fading. Most blame Delta but we think this...
That was some wild monthly Options Expiration week; was it not? While the S&P 500 (SPX) fell .60% on...
They say the trading hierarchy is 10% Technical analysis, 30% Risk Management and 60% Patience & Emotion management. If...
Following very strong 1H earnings, we raise our forecasts that leave us above consensus on 2021 but below on...
Welcome back to Finom Group’s weekly Research Report, as we kick-off our 3-week reporting cycle. Two weeks ago, during...
“A strategy is NOT bound by or tethered to luck! Find a strategy that works for you, incorporates your...
By Russell Rhoads As we approached August, market observers and commentators pointed to the danger that the months of...
STRATEGY: July/August “chop” morphing into full Missouri (aka “show me state”) –> tilting us further into “risk-on” view –>...
“Everyone has the brain power to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.” ~Peter Lynch To review...
The mid-cycle transition de-rating is advanced but unfinished. Falling earnings revision breadth this fall will likely complete that process....
Forty one! As of this past trading week, the S&P 500 has “clocked” 41 all-time highs (4,429) in 2021....
As a youth minister, I often find that much of what I’ve learned and preached can help us as...
Another week has passed and another week has proven the longstanding trend of dip buying activity. This has been...
The average length of the bear markets since WW II has been 16 months; the average length of the...
We remain constructive on equities and see the latest round of growth and slowdown fears premature and overblown. Even...
The market appears ready to take on a more defensive character as we experience a meaningful deceleration in earnings...
Good weekend Finom Group members. In this week’s Research Report, I am going to be flying solo as our...
“The difference between underperforming and outperforming often comes down to 2 simple variables: To review the weekly State of...
2021 has produced another year of above average returns for the major US indices. However, under the surface it...
Good weekend Finom Group members! This weekend is our “off reporting” weekend, but as always, we desire to offer...
“If you don’t profit from your investment mistakes, someone else will.” -Yale Hirsch Every trade demands a thesis, be...
The following Alibaba fundamental research reporting is delivered via the team at Fundstrat: Summary While political risk has significantly...
From the pandemic lows on March 23, 2020, the S&P 500 is now up more than 96% and nearly...
In this week’s State of the Market we take a look at what the market may produce for the...
STRATEGY: Stick with Epicenter in 2H2021. Strong markets stay strong. US COVID-19 deaths are “unvaccinated” Americans COVID-19 cases could...
This past trading week went exactly as investors/traders expected, after a ~2% pullback for the S&P 500 (SPX) the...
Investing takes time! When Jeff Bezos asked the 2nd richest man in the world… “Your investment thesis is so...
The Fed’s “surprise” move toward tapering that took markets lower last week is just the moment of recognition for...
Welcome back Finom Group traders and investors. Although last weekend was our monthly off-reporting week, the market did not...
“Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort, which...
Cross-Asset Strategy: Clients have asked about our conviction in the pro-cyclical trade given the recent decline in bond yields....
The Fed is likely to start discussing the tapering path, and over the next few meetings potentially indicate...
You can know everything there is to know about markets, technicals, fundamentals and still be a poor investor/trader… why?...
Last week’s Payrolls numbers were modestly disappointing but wage growth is showing real signs of upside pressure. In short,...
The S&P 500 (SPX) deviated from a decade-long streak of underperformance during the Memorial Day trading week this past...
Thank you for joining us on this journey through the markets in 2021. To review the latest State of...
Our discussions with clients are narrowing to two primary topics: Earnings and Inflation. On the former, we hear many...
Welcome back! Every week, Seth and I discuss all the facets of the market and what are the factors...
Top 5 Reasons We Hear From Investors for Being/Becoming Bearish on Equities “Wake me up when these are bigger...
While there is some sympathy for our mid-cycle transition, most think it’s too early, or not worth acting on....
The past trading week almost mirrored what we saw 2 weeks ago when the S&P 500 (SPX) fell in...
Mid-Cycle Brings More Risk than Reward We’re entering mid-cycle faster than normal. Rate of change on growth & policy...
“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and...
The Mid-Cycle Transition Over the past month, we’ve taken a different path than most equity strategists. Rather than getting...
After 3 full trading weeks, and an additional 3 trading days this past week, the S&P 500 (SPX) managed...
Some 90% of RIAs can’t analyze markets with any proficiency! Some 90% of analysts can’t advise clients in a...
Global Macro spotlight by Gary Schlossberg, Global strate We believe investors looking beyond this year’s expected economic boom can...
Nailed it! That must be what Fundstrat strategist Tom Lee is thinking at the end of the trading week...
US Equity Strategy Market Update, Impact of Higher Corporate Tax and Infrastructure Spending Plan For the last twelve months,...
At the end of the previous trading week, the S&P 500 (SPX) was enjoying its fourth-straight up week (its...
In this week’s State of the Market we review a couple of key breadth indicators that may help to...
By David Kastner: Sector rotation is perhaps one of the best known and widely implemented investment strategies within equity portfolios....
Welcome to this week’s State of the Market. In this week’s episode we take a look at robust and...
Strategy Equity and credit markets continue to grind higher, undisturbed by the recent rise in bond yields or...
Another week, another record high for the S&P 500 (SPX). This makes 20 record highs already in 2021. While...
Thank you for joining us for this week’s State of the Market. My voice is back, to a greater...
Weekly Warm-up: More on The Mid Cycle Transition to Quality; Staples over Discretionary Last week we argued for a...
The S&P 500 (SPX) bottomed in March of 2009 at 666, the Devil’s Bottom as it has become known....
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. This week’s episode will hope to find a video recording, but...
A hotter but shorter economic cycle has implications for asset allocation as well as equity portfolio construction. In the...
Everyday I read The Chart Report. It’s a mixture of charts and thoughtful quotes for what I find to...
No month-end equity selling but likely buying, what if ship breaks, Oil and CTAs Over the past few days,...
Cross-asset strategy: This week’s Fed reiteration that it won’t hike for about three years despite extraordinary fiscal stimulus...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s...
The derating of stocks is not over but may take a pause as stimulus boosts liquidity. Our cycle analysis...
Stocks danced higher this past week to produce their best week since February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we record live on...
Equity Strategy Market Update, Style Positioning − Where does the Momentum Unwind stand? The recent market volatility has been...
Much of the trading week was once again driven by fear of inflation, rising bond yields and a continuation...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we record live on...
Cross-asset strategy: Higher rates was one of late 2020’s most-consensus views, but higher rate volatility was not. Hence,...
Welcome back to Finom Group’s weekly Research Report cycle (3 weeks on, 1 week off). Investors have muddled through...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we catch up on...
Cross-asset strategy: Almost irrespective of macro tremors like the Texas energy shock, Bonds continue to telegraph confidence in the...
A strong US consumer setup at a time of economic reopening to unleash pent-up demand and drive growth. Our...
Many believe that bond yields will not be able to move up much, partly as there is no sustained...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we take a look...
When can the US achieve broad vaccination of its population: Using the current rate of daily vaccinations (red line,...
The strong start to the year for risk assets was upended in the final week of January, as the...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In this week’s episode, we take a...
Alpha over Beta. The wild price swings of the past month are a function of two things in our...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In...
Correction has arrived, positioning and leverage should do the rest. A combination of peaking rate of change in M1/M2and...
The ~3% drawdown in the S&P 500 this week took many by surprise. A key feature of this likely...
The S&P 500 (SPX) did exact what everyone expected it to do this past trading week. If you believe...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In...
A question facing most investors today is the outlook for equities, and more broadly market risk. This ties into...
Does the Rotation Need a Vacation? The new leadership in small caps, cyclical stocks and commodities is well established...
Finom Group’s official weekly Research Report will begin a new cycle (3 weeks on, 1 week off) on January...
With ten trading sessions of the New Year complete, January and 2021 are off to a modest start. The...
Last Monday, in our January Chartbook, we suggested that the Georgia runoff could be a wildcard for the potential...
The first week of a new year, and the markets continue to trend higher. We don’t know how long...
Wayne and Seth tackle the macro-market issues of the day as the New Year takes shape. Take some time...
Markets Are Discounting Machines.Financial markets look ahead and discount what humans often can’t see or even imagine. 2020 may...
We’re back, and we hope that everyone is prepared for another adventurous year in the markets. As we enter...
Please click the following link to be directed to our latest YouTube video where we discuss our concluding thoughts...
Don’t be late. Life often throws us curve balls and when it does,all we can do is adjust our...
OVERVIEW Following on our series that was produced this year called “The Book of Great,” which discussed 10 separate...
In this week’s video special report we discuss the environment surrounding the February-March 2020 bear market; the fastest bear...
12 month price momentum is a powerful driver of flows and performance. Over time, price momentum strategies aren’t mean...
As we wrap-up our third year of operations at Finom Group, we extend our gratitude to each and every...
Equities are facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains next year. After a prolonged period of elevated...
Market and VolatilityCommentary Equity Macro and Quantitative Outlook for 2021 Our outlook for 2021 is positive for equities and...
Please click the following link to review our commentary on Sentiment, Leverage, Is it Early 2018 Again or…? What...
There has been a punditry that has remained sidelined or angered by the markets’ surmising of the future, and...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s edition we take a look back...
The equity market, for which we’ll use the S&P 500 (SPX) as our guide, will always maintain varying degrees...
Welcome back to our weekend Research Report and look inside all the macro-market driving forces for which we analyze...
Investors are increasingly embracing the recovery. We laid out our bullish 12 month view in our 2021 Outlook (Show...
Goldman Sachs chief political economist Alec Phillips Goldman Sachs now offers that it’s “base case” for the next fiscal...
Show Me the Money! 2020 was all about beta and understanding how equity markets trade in and around a...
The S&P 500 (SPX) has surpassed its previous high among a global pandemic and an uncertain economy. The index...
The equity market is facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains in years. After a prolonged period...
We remain committed bulls over next 6-12 months. When bull markets simultaneously begin with a new economic cycle, they...
After a significant 1-week drawdown in the major averages 2 weeks ago, the market had an even greater resurgence...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In...
Correction right on schedule.2 weeks ago we called for a second 10% correction in as many months as we...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s...
Pfizer has not yet accrued the32 COVID infections for its 1st interim analysis: The fact that Pfizer’s first interim...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM....
Weekly Warm-up: ResistanceHolds; Earnings Upside vsMultiple for Stock Selection Last week’s failure to break through technical resistance for second...
Stocks inched higher this past trading week, digesting a slew of updates that suggest the global and domestic economic...
Cyclicals and small caps have gained more attention even as fiscal deal looks less likely because economic recovery has...
As one can see in the weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart below, the week started with significant upside stemming...
Equity markets are in the midst of a growth scare for reasons we think will ultimately be resolved by...
Cross-asset strategy: President Trump’s COVID-19 test revelation has accelerated his deterioration in the polls and betting odds that began...
Equity markets started the trading week with a strong Monday performance, but from there it became a roller coaster...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s...
Somewhere’s in the recess of my childhood memories I can now hear Count Dracula from Sesame Street saying, “1...
To kick off the MS Global Healthcare Conference, onSeptember 14, Risinger and Harrison hosted former FDACommissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb...
Corporate outlook continues to improve on stronger than expected economic and earnings recovery, constructive guidance, as well as positive...
One could make the argument that this is one of the more predictable market pullbacks in recent memory. The...
Weekly Warm Up: Big Drop Signals Changing Dynamics Last week’s decline was technical in nature but fundamentally triggered. We...
“The strong rise in equities from the March trough, coupled with bullish options positioning, makes a near-term setback likely....
After a 5-month long downtrend in market volatility and an exceptional rally off of the March lows, it has...
What is next for markets? Investors should position forrising odds of Trump re-election In March, we were the first...
Good Sunday to all Finom Group subscribers! This weekend is our 1 weekend of the month where we do...
Fed minutes disappoint with lack of inflation-targeting details or willingness to employ yield curve control. Meanwhile, the recovery is...
While markets continued to make new all-time highs this week, underlying breadth and momentum suggest caution in the near-term....
We’ve made it through another topsy-turvy week in the equity markets relatively unscathed. There was a good deal of...
IN THIS ISSUE • Macro Strategy—Housing activity and prices are currently picking up, supported by a convergence of cyclical,...
If the S&P 500 (SPX) chose to chide the permabears and even poke those in hibernation, it might do...
In some regards, an incumbent seeking reelection fits well into NDR’s historical analysis wheelhouse. The last presidentto not run...
Big week for the S&P 500 (SPX), depending on which side of the fence you’re leaning of course! The...
The J.P. Morgan View Growth versus virus now, vaccine versus virus later —an update on a conflict and a...
The S&P 500 (SPX) flip flopped this week, but spent the last few days hovering around a 40-point range....
This past trading week, the markets continued to look beyond the rising COVID-19 infection rate and toward a future...
Biotechnology | North America COVID-19: Increasing ConvictionMultiple Vaccine Candidates WillHave Pivotal Data Before YE20 While a pre-election result is...
US Equity Strategy Election Implications for Equities, Democrat AgendaWinners and Losers With US election only a few months away,...
Volatility Review Monetizing the convexity risk premium, US structuredproduct dynamics, Positioning update Implied convexity continues to exhibit very high...
2020 Mid-Year Outlook for Economies and Markets as the World Re-opens Summary and Replay of 2020 Mid-Year Outlook Virtual...
Has the COVID-19 reemerging positive case ratio finally caught up to what many have described as a market that...
After retreating some 4.7% in the previous week, the S&P 500 (SPX) took back some of the consolidation. For...
by Paul Christopher, CFA, Head of Global Market Strategy and Gary Schlossberg, Market Strategist Key takeaways We expect that...
Just one week ago, the S&P 500 finished higher for the week by 4.9%, which seems a lifetime ago...
Burgeoning ‘green shoots’ bring hope for an economic recovery The last time I used the term “green shoots” was...
The J.P. Morgan View Booming markets, disturbing protests and a collapsing dollar Cross-asset strategy: Risky markets are booming and...
This weekend is an off-reporting weekend, but we encourage our members to maintain a fluid understanding of the week-to-week...
During the holiday shortened trading week, the excitement was already anticipated and proclaimed by the bulls with strong market...
Another choppy, headline-driven trading week. Fortunately the choppiness resolved itself to the upside and further erased the previous week’s...
After a 1-point move in the S&P 500 (SPX) Monday, things got a bit more interesting through the remainder...
US Equity Strategy: Equity Risk Premium, Market Multiple, Zero Rates, Liquidity Boom, Long Duration, Sustainable Income. The sharp ~30%...
IN THIS ISSUE • Macro Strategy—Alongside a sharp contraction in economic activity, the equity market has already seen a...
Over the last 2-3 weeks, Finom Group has outlined our market outlook during the bear market saga, by forecasting...
Market and Volatility Commentary COVID-19 forecasts – providing updates and modeling details Given the unprecedented heath crisis and resulting...
The world is an imperfect place! Remember that as an investor, engaged in an imperfect marketplace with imperfect systems,...
Market and Volatility Commentary S&P 500 back to highs? Quantifying Fed impact on the multiple; Sunshine – a factor...
Through the first 4 days of the trading week, the S&P 500 (SPX) managed to gain 10 points; that’s...
Market and Volatility Commentary: COVID-19 herd immunity and importance of regional datasets – Gangelt, Faroe, Iceland and UAE; Fed’s...
On behalf of Finom Group, we want to wish everyone a happy and healthy holiday weekend. As mentioned in...
Two factors may help mitigate further volatility. BY JURRIEN TIMMER, DIRECTOR OF GLOBAL MACRO FOR FIDELITY MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH...
US Equity Strategy Style Positioning, Value Squeeze, Winner Takes All Rising odds of a sharp Value squeeze in the...
After a strong relief rally, the S&P 500 (SPX) once again suffered from selling pressure and ended in the...
On Tuesday the situation in Italy consolidated with growth in net active cases for Italy as a whole staying...
Over the weekend the COVID-19 situation improved all the EU5 countries. Not only did the growth in net active...
The trading week in review kicked-off with more whimpering and selling pressure before rallying some 17% over the next...
Over the past few days, economists and strategists are coming out with forecasts for economic growth, earnings, and asset...
For most investors and traders, last week was one of the worst weeks in market history that they experienced...
The equity market has been coping with the COVID-19 outbreak across developed markets for the last two weeks, forcing...
The bounce back in markets this past week was quite telegraphed in the historical data we presented in the...
The S&P 500 (SPX) closed a volatile, ugly week with a major correction and it’s largest since Q4 2018....
If you were asked to do nothing as an investor for the week to come, could you do it?...
Since displacing the gains from January, which we believe is the best term to use, the S&P 500 (SPX)...
Good Sunday to all of our Finom Group members. Due to this week’s engagement at The Money Show in...
It’s a new year, and come Monday, a new month as a typical February month is found for little...
The J.P. Morgan View Pandemics, climate change catastrophes and markets The J.P. Morgan View: Pandemics, climate change catastrophes and...
You see? It’s not all rainbows and unicorns in the markets as they say and last week wasn’t even...
Flows & Liquidity: Are there similarities to January 2018?. Fri Jan 10 2020 A wide range of institutional investors...
Let’s get this party started folks! If last week the market proved one thing it is this: Buying begets...
Eye on the Market Outlook 2020J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT Ghosts of Christmas Past. After a very positive year for...
The first couple of trading days of the New Year proved a mixed bag as stocks roared higher on...
This article first appeared in Financial Times: Jennifer Ablan, Colby Smith, Richard Henderson in New York and Joe Rennison...
Just 2 more trading days remain in 2019 and with that we are looking forward to the longest expansion...
Athanasios P. Fassas 1 and Nikolas Hourvouliades 2,* 1. Department of Accounting and Finance, University of Thessaly, Larissa 41110,...
IN THIS ISSUE Macro Strategy—A fundamental change in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) approach to achieving its inflation target means...
The trading week that was ended in a manner that many may have not anticipated. As we read this...
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Our view is that the market turmoil and economic slowdown over the past 18 months is not...
The S&P 500 (SPX) has been on a wild ride this past trading week and it remains a guesstimate...
ByMichael WursthornDec. 1, 2019 5:30 am ET The bears are circling retailers ahead of the holiday season. Short sellers...
Good Sunday and as a reminder, our weekly Research Report issuance will begin again on December 9, 2019. This...
MARKETS AND INVESTING: November 22, 2019 Read the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam. Key Takeaways Plentiful Jobs...
Good Sunday morning to all! I, Seth Golden, will be flying solo on this Research Reporting mission as our...
Authored by Thompson Capital Management Recently Forgotten Recency bias. Source: NY Times In psychology, “recency bias” is the term...
The S&P 500 (SPX) has run fast, furious and unabated in it’s journey toward the 3,100 level. The benchmark...
And oh what a week it was… if you went into the week under the impression that new S&P...
Coming into the trading week that was, the S&P 500 (SPX) completed two up weeks in a row, and...
Entering the trading week, we were of the opinion that the rally in the major averages from the previous...
It looked as though markets were on the precipice of breaking down earlier in the trading week, and as...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s episode we discuss...
If you enjoy roller coasters then you probably enjoyed the market action this past trading week. From peak to...
Good Sunday morning to all! As mentioned throughout the week, due to the birth of my nephew, we will...
At first glance, U.S. equities seem to be riding a bullish wave. The S&P 500 is up more than...
The market fell last week and snapped a 3-week win streak after the major indices danced around record highs....
This week, I had the pleasure of presenting our market outlook to clients at an event held at the...
That makes a 3-week winning streak for the major averages. The S&P 500 rose roughly 1% in the past...
Capital Market Outlook September 6, 2019 IN THIS ISSUE: • Macro Strategy—Central-bank easing and fiscal stimulus in a growing...
That was the longest, short trading week I’ve ever experienced (Seth Golden taking the helm of this week’s reporting,...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. Our emphasis in this week’s SOTM...
Now that’s how you bounce back from a sharp decline in the previous week. And why did markets bounce...
Given the state of macro-affairs that are bleeding into the market outlook, this week’s Research Report will discuss the...
The trading week that was proved confounding for many with twists and turns throughout the trading week. When it...
If you had anticipated a wild week via the FOMC rate announcement and press conference, you would have been...
The S&P 500 (SPX) spent the week rising, shy of a hick-up during the ECB rate announcement, and ended...
Even with better than expected earnings results from the big money center banks and early technology sector reporting, the...
Another record closing week for the major indices, with all 3 achieving new all-time highs. Additionally, the S&P 500...
In the week that was, the S&P 500 (SPX) found itself another leg higher, capturing new record-level highs and...
A quick review from some of our notes in the prior weekly Research Report before we get started, if...
Coming into the trading week, binary risks were looming amidst a rather strong June rally. With the FOMC standing...
I think the best way to describe the past trading week would be by using the word “funky”. NO,...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. In this week’s SOTM we...
Ahead of the opening bell on Friday, June 14, 2019, retail sales and industrial production data will be released....
Despite the constant news flow and tweets discussing tariffs on Mexican imports, the S&P 500 (SPX) and peer indices...
There are now at least 4 key ingredients drawing upon investor fears and which have resulted in a May,...
In the past trading week, investors/traders were once again at the mercy of trade headlines. It was only 2...
The fears of profound losses to the equity markets in the event that tariffs have been increased were overblown…...
Well, that was much to do about nothing given the anticipation that came ahead of the trading week. When...
Good morning fellow investors. This week’s Research Report will hit with greater brevity than you’ve seen with many of...
1Q 2019 Market Letter The bull market that began in early March 2009 passed its 10th birthday last month,...
For the S&P 500 (SPX) it proved to be the week that investors went to sleep, as the benchmark...
One of the issues with suggesting that the S&P 500 (SPX) over reacted to a growth slowdown in Q4...
Did anything change during the trading week to reinforce our bullish outlook on both the economy and equity market...
After a lackluster week for equities in the middle of the month and heading into the end of the...
It’s not the way bulls desired the week to end, especially after a strong Thursday performance, but when algorithms...
There are two more trading weeks remaining in the Q1 2019 period. The S&P 500 (SPX) is up some...
Coming into the trading week, most every index and index ETF was expressing overbought conditions. With all the major...
Leading up to the Friday trading session, the markets appeared to be expressing exhaustion and have been with overbought...
Volatility Review 19 February 2019 Equity Derivatives Strategy Bram Kaplan, CFA AC, Marko Kolanovic, PhD Positioning update, RTY and...
It’s not often that such a market rally, now nearly 2 months in the making, can frighten investors, but...
Why rising rates and a flatter curve signal a potential downturn: The U.S. economy has seen a prolonged period of growth without a recession. As the business cycle has...
Market and Volatility Commentary V-Shaped Recovery, Low Positioning = More Upside, Commodity Sector Trades The V-shaped recovery and Positioning...
When momentum develops, it can become a driving force greater than fundamentals and rational considerations. Such was the case...
It was a headline heavy week that drove the S&P 500 (SPX) absolutely… nowhere. In fact, after a strong...
This has been one heck of a market rally, but it comes on the heels of one heck of...
U.S. Equity Strategy: Buybacks to Remain Strong Amidst Uncertainty Buybacks have been a key theme through this cycle with...
In the following video, Wayne Nelson discusses the Technology Select Spider ETF (XLK). He offers some technical analysis that...
The trading week commenced with a degree of frenzied selling pressure on Tuesday and within the context of slowing...
The S&P 500 (SPX) and its peer indices have had quite the bullish move off of the Christmas Eve...
Narrative vs. Flows, Liquidity-Volatility-Flows Feedback Loop, QE/QT and Liquidity Narrative vs. Flows By Marko Kolanovic, PhD and Bram Kaplan,...
We are off to a spectacular year in the markets with the S&P 500 (SPX) up roughly 3.5% since...
Posted on January 3, 2019 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT There’s a saying that market tops are a process and...
Languishing over the 2018 market won’t do investors any good, but it is important to reflect on what made...
Market and Volatility Commentary December Post-Mortem, Signals from Fund Flows, Role of Systematic Flows and Reversion December Post-Mortem Over...
U.S. equity markets demonstrated another remarkable turnaround on Wednesday as investors returned from the New Year holiday. At its...
Good weekend to everyone and with the final trading day of calendar year 2018, we can’t help but desire...
J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Weekly Recap – Fri 12.21.18 Trading Desk Commentary; For Institutional Investors...
If you’re not hedged already, there is probably no better time than the present to start considering how to...
BofA Merrill Lynch 2019 Market Outlook: From Peak to Trough, the Market Unfriends Stocks and Bonds, Likes Volatility, and...
After a really poor performance in October, the S&P 500 (SPX) rebounded in November. It may not have seemed...
In the week that was, we had a rare 2018 example of market inefficiency. For much of the year...
Another roller coaster week in the markets has passed and with it dragging the major averages lower for the...
This past week was yet another turbulent week for the major averages, but they managed there best week in...
Let’s get right to the heart of the matter and as we look forward to the coming week, which...
Despite what has now been a near 10% S&P 500 (SPX) correction from it’s all-time high set in September,...
We were expecting a rather large move for the S&P 500 (SPX) last week and we sort of got...
Midweek, the markets took a turn for the worse in what is rapidly correlating to the spookiest month of...
There is a great deal to discuss in this week’s research report, but we would be remised if we...
Although we haven’t quite hit the earnings season stride, usually marked by the financials reporting results, investors will roll...
Welcome to our latest weekly research report where we’ll be discussing our usual topics surrounding the economy and financial...
Good Sunday morning to all Finom Group subscribers! This week’s research reporting is delivered to subscribers with an emphasis...
We’re going to take the lengthy edge of verbiage off of this week’s research report by focusing more narrowly...
Despite the noise surrounding global trade and correlated tariffs last week, the S&P 500 finished higher by nearly 1...
August is typically a lesser performing month for the S&P 500, only to be outdone by September. September is...
The chart below identifies the S&P 500 (SPX) movement through the trading week that was. And it was quite...
The S&P 500 (SPX) came within 9 points of reaching it’s all-time record high earlier in the trading week...
Posted on August 6, 2018 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT I’ve spent a great of time looking at and...
Week in Review In the face of drum beating bears and prior tech sector meltdown quarterly reporting from FANG...
Market and Volatility Commentary Upside for EM Equities and Value; Evolution of the Trade War; End of Cycle and Fiscal...
That was something for all the market pundits and critics to behold last week was it not? The mantra...
It was a big “nothing burger” for investors in the equity markets last week, as by and large the...
Barron’s: What’s the good word, if any, on the economy and the markets? Jeffrey Gundlach: We are more cautious...
Last week, the Q2 2018 reporting cycle kicked-off with some of the big banks reporting quarterly results. JP Morgan...
What Makes A Great Investor? Posted on July 12, 2018 by Andrew Thrasher, CMT There are many ideas to...
Investor Sentiment This year has been a year unlike more recent and years whereby the markets trended steadily higher...
In this week’s research report we are going to cover a few topics. The first topic centers on the...
In the latest week, the Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P lost 0.7% and the Nasdaq fell 2 percent. For...
By Stuart Barton, CFA Following the events of Feb. 5th, several volatility-linked products have been delisted or deleveraged. We...
Divergence! A one-word sentence used appropriately to describe last week’s trading action where the Dow was significantly lower than...
Written by Lance Roberts | Jun, 11, 2018 Crashes Matter A Lot In Part I – Buy and Hold can be...
In an investing world that is filled with various investment vehicles, strategies and practices, risk vs. reward usually plays...
Are you a short-VOL/VIX trader? If so you probably know what it feels like to have your trading style/strategy...
By Lance Roberts Part I: Buy and Hold Can Be Hazardous To Your Wealth One would think that following...
Admittedly, that was a trading week not worth forgetting. More importantly, it was a trading week that was very...
If you’re an investor or trader, you’ve probably heard the following words dozens of times: This time is different....
The major indexes posted slight weekly losses last week. The Dow and S&P 500 both fell 0.5% for the...
It’s funny what a difference a week can make in the markets. Up until last week, the equity market...
In the U.S. retail landscape, the strength seen this past holiday season continued into the first quarter of 2018....
We want to begin this week’s research report with a quick look back at what some might argue was...
Last week’s jam-packed earnings releases failed to excite investors even as most reporting companies beat analysts’ estimates. About half...
The prior week for equity investors and the major averages was shaping up to be a strong week that...
For this week’s tech report, we focus on that shiny precious metal: gold. Ever since the post-recession high in...
Closing out the 1st week of earnings season found the major averages higher last week. In the wake of...
Words carry meaning! As an investor, when contemplating those words in the geopolitical and macro realm, deciphering words and...
Investors are hopeful that April proves a better month for equities than did March and after closing out a...
Earlier this month, Target released its Q4 2017 results alongside 2018 guidance. The release brought with it selling pressure...
Long-term investing is largely about corporate earnings, sales and the ability of a corporation to deliver a reasonable return...
As the recovery from the 2018 correction continues, we evaluate price action through visual charts to determine what moves...
That was a pretty bullish end to an otherwise fear littered week that centered on two major points of...
After a rather rocky road traveled in the first half of 2017, J.C. Penney sales results improved dramatically in...
This week is likely to prove a considerably important week as equity markets have gyrated back and forth throughout...
On February 27, 2018, Macy’s reported its Q4 2017 and FY17 results. With some retailers and especially Macy’s, following...
Despite the recent level setting of market expectations and more recent equilibrium found in the major indices, I wouldn’t...
As we come into the final trading days of February, we’ve had some pretty technically responsive price action as...
In light of declining volatility – the VIX index and its term structure started to normalize Wednesday – where...
After an outside reversal trading day last Friday that found the Nasdaq going from up 1% to negative .23%...
Last week we took a look at the price action of the S&P 500 after a very volatile week....
Last week was a measured action against extremes. The downturn in U.S. equities last week ended a streak of...
As we enter the corrective phase of the market moves, we seek the guidance of technical analysis to provide...
The Grand Market Sell-Off: Is that what we’ll be calling the pullback in the indexes in the coming weeks?...
Starbucks is set to report its Q1 2018 results after the closing bell on January 25, 2018 and to...
While the U.S. Government is shutdown, corporate earnings will still continue to roll in as the tech sector begins...
What a week it was for the major averages. The meteoric rise would almost have to find perma-bears and...
Models are useful. They help us understand the world around us and aid us in predicting what will happen...
Today, as part of the Golden Capital Portfolio holdings update, I will be adjusting capital exposure minimally with iPath S&P...
Aggregate Estimates and Revisions by David Aurelio Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.9% from Q3 2016. Excluding the...
There is nothing wrong with unbridled enthusiasm when it’s correlated to the appropriate level of rationale. That’s the premise...
For volatility ETP (exchange-traded product) traders, there are a range of products from which to choose. Some are relatively...
Finom Group recognizes that a compilation of professional investment strategists and asset managers will benefit investors of all classifications....
There are a great many variables, correlations and precedence to consider heading into 2018, but in this narrative we...
Last Update: December 22, 2017 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 8.5% from Q3...
Since 2014, Bed Bath & Beyond has found itself in the precarious situation that has plagued many a brick...
Amazon (AMZN) bought Whole Foods Market earlier in 2017 throwing retail giants like Target (TGT) and Wal-Mart (WMT) into...
September 29, 2017 will mark the final trading day of the Q3 2017 period and with that may come...
Through no fault of my own I’ve recently found myself at the heart of the mainstream, short- volatility (VOL),...
The last few weeks have been quite turbulent for volatility traders with swings in the VIX of greater than...
Over the last few years I have become increasingly vocal and accurate with my prognostications concerning volatility and the...
While it may seem like a “broken record” statement it is also the reality and that reality offers that...
Fitbit (FIT) entered its Q2 2017 quarterly report with its stock performing at its lowest valuation since becoming a...
Retail sales have been a disappointment now for three consecutive months and as such this may lead to downward...
In 2015, I penned my first article on the subject matter surrounding VIX-leveraged ETF/ETNs. Back then, as if it...
With each passing week, month and year, Volatility ETPs have become more and more popular. This was no more...
If you’re a brick & mortar retailer, your business has been under siege for a lengthy period of time....
I leave the country for one week, one week and return to discover that volatility has remained relatively low....
The reality is far more innocuous than the reaction sometimes. When Amazon (AMZN) announced its acquisition of Whole Foods...
The summer doldrums are here, or are they. Last Friday’s market action or reaction to some minor headlines shook...
Concern! If there is one major theme fast approaching investors and traders as we blast through record levels for...
Back in March of 2017, I authored an article that focused on all that has been ailing Target Corp....
That was quite the interesting trading week was it not? Up until Wednesday, the markets looked as if it...
You’ve heard me say it time and time again, read it maybe a couple dozen times and possibly benefited...
J.C. Penney (JCP) reported an increasingly worrisome sales performance last week as the company put forth its Q1 2017...
Retail earnings and sales results will come into focus this week and remain in focus through the following week...
Fitbit (FIT) reported rather dismal Q1 2017 metrics last week, but even so shares of FIT rose sharply. Why...
Golden Capital Portfolio continues to outperform the benchmark S&P 500 Return On Invested Capital year-to-date. In my most recent...
On April 23, 2017 I informed readers, traders and investors alike as to the risks that lay before the...
It’s enough to make you close up shop and seek out a new career if you’re a portfolio or...
It was another ugly retail sales report for the month of March and with February’s retail sales being revised...
This week is going to be a very critical week for the retail sector. With many retail stocks expressing...
Late in 2016 and after Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) reported their Q3 2016 results I authored a detailed analysis of...
In my office I have framed the famous quote, “Know from whence you came. If you know whence you...
Rumors can be difficult to manage when they surface and center on an investment vehicle in your portfolio. As...
It was a good day for Fitbit (FIT) shareholders yesterday and one that could not come soon enough. In...
Fitness tracker or a smartwatch? Well, that’s a question that was asked a couple of years ago, but plainly...
On January 3, 2017 I offered readers and investors my plans for continued triple digit returns on capital invested...
Last week, Target Corp. (TGT) offered a rather gruesome outlook for 2017 that came on the heels of a very weak...
If you are invested in any major department store retail equity you are well aware of the absolute beating...
“You want the truth; you can’t handle the truth”! I have been covering Fitbit (FIT) since January of 2016....
They say there are only two certainties in life: Death and Taxes. Of course, as a colloquialism, it is...
It can sometimes be a little confusing to the average investor when the media and financial market communities throw...
A rumor has recently surfaced regarding the possibility, not the probability, but the possibility of Macy’s (M) selling itself....
What can you say about Fitbit’s (FIT) executive team other than “Wow”? After lowering FY16 guidance upon missing Q3...
Retail stocks were punished on January 27, 2016 as fear levels increased over the potential for a border tax.The...
Fitbit (FIT) is going to struggle with its metric results in 2017, be they financial or operational. This continues...
Three trading weeks have been logged in the New Year and with that… still no signs of increasing volatility...
Like many a retailer before Target (TGT), the big-box department store chain announced a dismal sales performance for the...
After several reiterations in the last week of trading, on January 18, 2017 Credit Suisse’s Christian Buss has downgraded J.C. Penney...
Like many retail names, J.C. Penney (JCP) has reported a disappointing holiday sales period. With the retailer’s CEO previously...
With only a week of trading under our belts in 2017, maintaining a core short position in ProShares Ultra...
Soon after both Macy’s (M) and Kohl’s (KSS) reported negative holiday sales comparisons of greater than 2%, J.C. Penney...
The situation at Macy’s (M) is as bad as it was when I began covering the company in January...
In 2016, the Golden Capital Portfolio managed to achieve a 167% return on capital invested. Capital allocation was largely...
You will hear plenty of commentary from Fitbit (FIT) fans and investors regarding the future of Fitbit with a...
If you want a misleading headline to take a stock higher, the recent power rankings in the Apple (AAPL)...
As I watch the famed AMC series “The Walking Dead” I can’t help but to consider Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY )...
While Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY ) is not in dire straits, the company’s consistent underperformance over the last couple of years...
If you have been following my coverage and analytics concerning volatility, VIX and VIX-leveraged ETFs you’ve probably done well for yourself...
They keep pushing and suggesting to traders the buying of volatility as a form of portfolio protection. Be it...
Do you remember when Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) acquired Palm for $1bn in 2010, likely just prior to Palm going bankrupt after several...
What’s the reality concerning Apple Watch sales?Notice how Apple’s CEO (AAPL) Tim Cook made no comment on the average...
Here we are only a few short days since offering to investors the potential with ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term...
Last week, Target Corp. (TGT) reported stronger than expected earnings and revenues. This sent shares of TGT higher as...
It’s not just that Fitbit (FIT) reported a miss on the top-line, but more so that the company lowered...
As the world begins to digest the future state of the Union or the United States of America under...
J.C. Penney (JCP) reported less than expected top-line growth for the Q3 2016 period while reporting in-line EPS expectations. Last week,...
The post-Trump election victory did not produce the widely anticipated and/or forecast downtrend in the equity markets. In fact,...
Costco (COST) reported 4th quarter results that showed a surprising beat on the bottom line. Initially, the stock reacted with a nearly...
“The retailers are reporting, the retailers are reporting”! Some of the biggest names in the retail sector have started...
Heading into 2016, I had positioned my portfolio for greater gains by increasing my exposure to volatility or VIX leveraged ETFs....
Fitbit (FIT) will report its Q3 2016 results after the closing bell on November 2nd and too much anticipation as both...
