Hotter but shorter cycles persist — we continue to forecast an earnings recession this year that we don’t think...
Good Sunday Finom Group members. As previously mentioned and due to a death in the family, we are not...
Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down. ~Warren Buffett...
We know that historical analogs and averages can be overdone in market analysis, and our statistical approach (and maybe...
Cross-Asset Strategy: Equities rallied to YTD highs on optimism around a US debt ceiling resolution, a move that seems...
Pundits and gurus master the art of going out on a limb without going out on a limb. ~Philip...
Boom! It just got “real”, as the kids say. The boom is the equivalent of the S&P 500 (SPX)...
“Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice and most of all, love of what...
Interactions with clients suggest our 2023 earnings forecast is now very much out of consensus. This is a change...
There are a great many opinions on the market and the potential outcome/s for the debt ceiling that lay...
Just 10 days ago, the Federal Reserve signaled a likely pause in the rate hiking campaign to fight inflation....
There isn’t much ‘feeling’ on the part of bulls or bears these days. As discussed previously, with seven months...
Long-term trends and short-term emotions are both powerful. Former can build wealth, latter can sabotage that effort. ~Brian G...
Waking From A Slumber? We’re very skeptical that the rally from last October’s low represents the first leg of...
Technically Vulnerable? For this week’s segment of “Looking at the charts/quants”, we’ll lead with the most perfect of quant...
Soooooo… feels like the market is running in place, right? Since hitting its initial 2023 high on February 2nd...
“It’s one thing to have forecasts, but if you can’t get what’s going on right now correct, there’s no...
Investors’ belief in a 2H EPS recovery is growing amid a stronger than expected reporting season. Meanwhile, the recent...
By Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—The Calm Before the Storm? Economic indicators continue to support our view that U.S. growth...
The big money is made in waiting and simplicity. Not in overactivity and complexity. ~Brian G of Alphacharts You...
The coming week will prove a meaningful earnings week, as the Mega-cap Growth companies will be reporting their quarterly...
While we are forgoing our traditional State of the Market recording and process, please review our latest video (link...
It really feels like the markets have not traveled too low or too high since hitting their peaks in...
“It’s not that optimism solves all of life’s problems; it is just that it can sometimes make the difference...
By Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—Deep Credit Restraint Likely In The Pipeline: Rapid-fire Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes...
In recent years, we’ve supplemented our longstanding normalized earnings technique with the simpler method of referencing any past peak...
David Tepper was once asked about his thoughts on Gold and whether or not it has a place in...
by Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Company Recent increase in Fed balance sheet is not QE, in our view…Many...
What a quarter, right? The Q1 2023 period was a rollercoaster ride unlike any in recent history, as the...
If you came to the markets in 2008, that you likely will relate everything since and to come to...
By Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Team With bond markets questioning the Fed’s dot plot, bond volatility has increased...
Macro Strategy—Time to End Quantitative Tightening Fast Approaching: Quantitative tightening (QT) has reached its limits in the regional banking...
Avoid at all costs: If you’re bullish on the markets you are probably only digesting bullish data points. If...
With the back-stopping of bank deposits by the Fed/FDIC, many equity investors are asking if this is another form...
There is never a time to not be honest with oneself as an investor/trader. We should always remain objective...
The non-seasonally adjusted headline CPI eased for an eighth consecutive month to 6.0% in February (Chart 1). The seasonally...
By Ian Shephardson of Pantheon Macro Economic Slowing Wage Gains will Give the Fed Room to Pause, but not...
I don’t know that there were many investors/traders who anticipated the route in markets this past week, but there...
Critical Technical Support Holds This week’s note will be shorter than normal given the Tech playbook note we also...
Slower spending growth in February The growth in Bank of America credit and debit card spending per household decelerated...
To achieve long-term success over many financial market and economic cycles, observing a few rules is not enough. Too...
by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomic ADP and JOLTS are Unreliable Guides to Labor Market Trends The record of...
For those disappointed that February’s employment report won’t be released until March 10th, we have something to consider in...
Can’t say it hasn’t been an interesting Q1 2023, right? With the New Year getting off to a sizzling...
All intelligent investing is value investing, acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in...
by Ian Shephardson of Pantheon MacroEconomics The first indication that January’s warmer-than usual weather would boost economic activity was...
Humans are addicted to doomsday narratives. I’ve noticed that sometimes people WANT things to be worse than they are,...
Stepping back from the January noise, the trends in core economic activity data are discouraging. It’s unrealistic to think...
We only know what we know! In the future, we’ll know more through experiences or dedicated educational exercises, or...
