Research Reporting

Cross-asset Strategy: Stocks and bonds continued to sell off last week on central bank hawkishness. The hawkish Fed outcome...

In roughly the last 10 trading sessions, the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMPQ) have lost 10% of their...

The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, and the greater the upside. ~George...

As the evidence builds around our more bearish earnings outlook, the stock market has traded lower again. While we...

Markets are firmly in the thrawls of another September swoon, which is all-too familiar and painful for many investors....

Bear markets are about buying value! Bull markets are about realized profits for value seekers! In other words: “INVESTORS...

Welcome back Finom Group traders and investors. As most are aware, the rollercoaster ride that is the 2022 investing...

From inside Oaktree Financial Services monthly newsletter, written by famed investor Howard Marks. Here’s an excerpt from an excellent...

1H22 was challenging for most risk assets as the Fed pivoted more sharply than most expected. The de-rating for...

Macro Strategy—QT Kicks into Second Gear: Financial conditions are likely to remain under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed)...

In 1987 shortly after Black Monday Peter Lynch was interviewed about the minimal hedging incorporated within the Magellan Fund:...

Chair Powell and the Fed make it crystal clear that their job fighting inflation remains unfinished. Ironically, while bonds...

With consecutive down weeks for the markets and the manner in which this past Friday played out for investors,...

In bull markets, investors are blind to the risks. In bear markets, investors are blind to the opportunities ~...

A 4-week winning streak has come to an end for markets. As reported in last week’s Research Report, this...

If this were a Bear Market Rally then the S&P 500 gain of +17.19% off the decline of -23.55%...

Welcome back to our weekly Research Report cycle (3-weeks on, 1 week off). The markets are expressing a very...

If we know that bad times are temporary and progress is undefeated, why is it so hard to stay...

The rise in inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it has been a real headwind for valuations this year....

Macro Strategy—Powell On A Mission: U.S. policymakers responded to the pandemic shutdowns with the most aggressive fiscal and monetary...

So this just happened: The S&P 500 gained 3.9% from the day of the Fed hike through the following...

“Waiting helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. If you didn’t...

Key talking points Aggregate retail inventories have been steadily improving as demand for goods moderates and supply chain bottlenecks...

It’s difficult to be too optimistic with another 75bps rate hike (almost certainly) coming next week, and especially given...

“Bear market rallies are labeled because things get so badly discounted they foster the idea that it has to...

While Defensives are the clear leader, most investors aren’t there, leaving more upside potential as earnings cuts begin. Counter-trend...

A big WELCOME BACK to all of our Finom Group members, as we kick-off another monthly cycle of Research...

A very strong US dollar provides yet another headwind for earnings. Meanwhile, from a historical perspective, this bear market...

Cross-Asset Strategy: While growth risks are elevated, our base case looks for an acceleration in global growth in the...

Macro Strategy—Volatile Times Ahead: Untethered money-supply fluctuations have created a new, more volatile environment for asset allocation. Until the...

Key talking points Bank of America aggregated credit and debit card spending was up 11% year-over-year (YoY) in June....

Fear dominates in times that are especially uncomfortable. Bear market, recession, yield curve inversion, whatever….Negative focus/thinking is a self-perpetuating...

The S&P 500 finished the month of June down -15%+ over the last 3 months and -20%+ over the...

Behavioral Finance tells us that you can broadly think of your happiness as just “Reality minus Expectations”. H =...

Key talking points We take a look at how consumers have historically adjust their spending during recessions and compare...

The S&P 500 (SPX) rallied sharply this past week, gaining 6.45 percent. This is the second 6%+ weekly gain...

When you feel like giving up, realize that at that very moment, you are at the same fork in...

With our view for lower multiples and earnings now more consensus, the markets are more fairly priced. However, it...

The great Q1 2022 earnings have proven the forward-looking nature of markets. I’m kicking-off this weekend’s Research Report with...

 Equity Risk Premium holds key inputs/ingredients  After major market sell-offs, it becomes increasingly difficult to achieve lower-lows. They are...

Cross-Asset Strategy: Friday’s strong CPI print that led to a surge in yields, along with the sell-off in crypto...

Macro Strategy—Inflation Dimming Economic Outlook: On multiple levels, including strong labor demand, decades-low household leverage, lack of excesses on...

“People who succeed in the stock market also accept periodic losses, setbacks, and unexpected occurrences. Calamitous drops do not...

Cross-Asset Strategy: The growth-policy tradeoff appears set to improve in 2H, and earnings revisions turned broadly positive in key...

The headlines were daunting and played out in price action this past week much as the first 100+ days...

  Due to a scheduling conflict, there will not be a weekly SOTM this week. We anticipate being back...

Many investors and traders were left feeling quite dejected the previous week, as a 6-week losing streak for the...

Trading this market can be quite frustrating, with historically high likelihood setups repeatedly failing. I keep myself sane by...

Welcome back traders and investors! I thought it a better way to kick-off this weekend’s Research Report, given the...

EVERY BEAR MARKET EVER FOMO turns into, GIDOT (glad I don’t own that), everyone claims they were raising cash...