A “soft landing” for the economy in the US seems increasingly possible, so we look back at previous similar episodes to get an idea of what might be ahead for equities there. Despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle over the past year and a half, it looks increasingly likely that the US economy will avoid recession, and therefore that the Fed…
Capital Economics: Soft landings, immaculate disinflation, and US equities
A financial market resource for the every-day investor and trader.
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The S&P 500 Plotted Course Has Been Prepared
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
The S&P 500 (SPX) came within 9 points of reaching it’s all-time record high earlier in the trading week...
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Leuthold Group: The Job Market Just Rescinded A Recession Signal
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
For those disappointed that February’s employment report won’t be released until March 10th, we have something to consider in...
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Morgan Stanley: Weekly Warm-up: Punxsutawney Phil Says 6 more Weeks of Winter. Stay Defensive
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
We continue to be more focused on what growth is going to do rather than rates and believe investors...
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BofA GPS: Global Proprietary Signals The weight of the evidence
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Key takeaways Soft landing (47% Bearish signals vs 58% in Sep-22), but still below-trend outlook; mfg take-off unlikely before...
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The Leuthold Group: Technical Picture Improves Late Year
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
The Major Trend Index moved up to the neutral zone in the week ended November 17th, winding up a...
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Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley: At Year-End
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
12 month price momentum is a powerful driver of flows and performance. Over time, price momentum strategies aren’t mean...
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Coronavirus Correction
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
The bounce back in markets this past week was quite telegraphed in the historical data we presented in the...
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March Retail Sales May Signal Further Economic Slowing
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
It was another ugly retail sales report for the month of March and with February’s retail sales being revised...
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