Seth Golden – Finom Group

Seth Golden posted an update 2 days, 1 hour ago

Morgan Stanley: “The problem is that last month’s consumer confidence reports suggested consumers took the first cut in a decade as a potential signal of an oncoming recession which may lead to more frugal behavior. …. a 50bps cut may throw them into a buyer’s strike.”

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Seth Golden posted an update 4 days, 15 hours ago

Using the wide/narrow button we can see that term structure remains extremely flat.

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Seth Golden posted an update 4 days, 19 hours ago

Goldman Sachs on Risk Events
1. The sharpness of the rally has swung our tactical options-implied positioning indicator (OPI) from neutral to close to overbought territory.

2. This switch in positioning metrics is occurring just as UST 10s are hovering around our 1.5% overshoot level.

3. Bonds could of course stay overbought for a while,…[Read more]

Seth Golden posted an update 5 days, 1 hour ago

Bread and butter housing is coming back. Single-family housing starts hit their best level since January. Single-family housing permits hit their best level since November 2018. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/us-housing-starts—july-2019.html

Seth Golden posted an update 5 days, 1 hour ago

Weekly flows from BofAML
1. Cash: biggest 13-week flows into MMFs since Jan’09 ($319bn)

2. ICI money market fund assets ($3.4tn) at 10-year high.

3. Weekly flows: $16.0bn into bonds; $4.7 out of equities.

4. Bonds: 9 biggest ever inflows to govt bonds ($4.7bn).

5. Credit: 5 biggest ever IG inflows ($10.7bn), tiny into HY ($0.2bn), small out…[Read more]

Seth Golden posted an update 1 week, 2 days ago

J.P. Morgan’s Mislav: “At the overall market level, while we remain positive on stocks for the year, we are in the short term advocating a pullback, lasting perhaps a few weeks, similar to the May experience, of a high-single-digit weakness. We look to step in after the poor August seasonals pass, and as positioning overhang improves. The…[Read more]

Seth Golden posted an update 1 week, 2 days ago

“we have increased our estimate of the growth impact of the trade war. In our baseline policy scenario, we now estimate a peak cumulative drag on the level of GDP of 0.6%, including a 0.2% drag from the latest escalation. The drivers of this modest change are that we now include an estimate of the sentiment and uncertainty effects and that…

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Seth Golden posted an update 2 weeks ago

Bernstein US Economist discusses the increased risks to the cycle with the trade war entering a new phase. He still sees the direct linkages of trade wars as too small to derail the US cycle and also don’t think the trade war can be used to justify inflation concerns.

The real question is the impact on the economy though the confidence…

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