JPM: risk of a wave of heavy hedge fund redemptions low
1. Risk of a wave of heavy hedge fund redemptions causing a double dip in equity markets similar to March 2009 is low in the current conjuncture.

2. The anecdotal evidence we have from our conversations with our colleagues in Prime Finance business as well as investors and fund…[Read more]

Tony P sees S&P500 coming down again to 2000-2300 range
Tony Pasquariello, macro guru at GS does not think market has bottomed.

1. Positioning much cleaner than a month ago, but not yet “fully clean”…

2. corona news (from a US perspective) still not at peak awful

3. market propped up by month-end rebal flow

4. market will trade lower as…[Read more]

GOLDMAN: “.. we believe it is likely that the market will turn lower in coming weeks, and caution short-term investors against chasing this rally.” History shows bear markets “are often punctuated by sharp bounces before resuming their downward trajectory.” (Kostin)

MS communicating bullish tone on Sunday´s cross-asset call. Remember that they switched to “constructive” last Sunday, which in hindsight was a perfect bottom-picking call.

1. Monday lows will hold

2. will not get an equally “fat pitch” again in this cycle

3. Fiscal & Monetary response better than expected and will be enough

4. the…[Read more]

Notables from last week:

1. NDX lagged
2. Correlations tightened
3. Failed to fill gap 2711(SPX)
4. VIX ROC remained elevated
5. VIX -.76% while SPX 10%+
6. No peak in epidemic curve to-date
7. Italy epidemic curve improved
8. Jobs jobs jobs
9. DXY weakened
10. Spreads tightened

Goldman Sachs: 1. Nets are high again as it would appear a lot of the shorts have been lifted

2. LO community seems hesitant to add, we know that their aggregate cash position coming into this was low…

3. quarter end/month end rebal flow always pre-traded – so probably ends today

4. very little visibility on redemptions

5. medical -…[Read more]

Nomura: “We are finally seeing the return of over writers in the equities vol space, which day-by-passing-day of incremental price stability will eventually tilt the dealer gamma profile back towards ‘long’ insulate the market from large swings in either direction, as their hedging flows tend to buy weakness/sell strength.”

Paul Tudor Jones sees Coronavirus peak between April 4th – April 10th; sees 300,000-400,000 cases in the US.

During 2000-2003 the US economy was impacted by multiple negative forces including a recession, a 49% decline in the S&P500, and the shock of 9/11, but US house prices grew at a 9% annual rate during this period. Thus, macro-economic distress needn’t always lead to falling home prices. However, we think the present situation differs from that of…[Read more]