Seth Golden – Finom Group

Seth Golden posted an update 11 hours, 43 minutes ago

So, what does everyone think the Fed will announce tomorrow? I’m of the opinion they will hike by .25 bps and suggest a pause in future rate hikes based on data dependency and inflation beyond well under control. My outlier is that they also discuss the quantitative tightening aspects from rolling $50bn in treasuries off monthly, possibly hint at…[Read more]

Seth Golden posted an update 16 hours, 35 minutes ago

CNBC Rapid Update for Q4 2018 GDP https://www.cnbc.com/rapid-update/

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Seth Golden posted an update 17 hours, 12 minutes ago

The SKEW Index has climbed about 9 points in last few trading session. This is inline with what we’ve seen in recent VIX rise as well as VVIX.

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Seth Golden posted an update 6 days, 9 hours ago

China preparing plans to open its market to overseas companies https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-madeinchina2025/china-preparing-plan-to-increase-access-for-foreign-companies-wsj-idUSKBN1OB22H

Seth Golden posted a new activity comment 6 days, 14 hours ago

Haven’t been a lot of hedgers really. More of a general correction with limited implied volatility. Normal corrections we should be in7-10% backwardation

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Seth Golden posted an update 6 days, 18 hours ago

Term Structure is still in backwardation which has persisted through much of this correction period. Keep in mind, m2 is the focus as m1 will expire next week Wednesday morning. m2 has only 1% backwardation presently so if all things remain status quo into Dec 19 expiration, we should see backwardation ease. This assumes VIX comes off the 22…

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John Simpson replied 6 days, 15 hours ago

We have to be getting near the top of the list of number of days in backwardation… feels like its been months….. The hedgers bidding up spx options are going to run out of money soon.
Seth Golden replied 6 days, 14 hours ago

Haven’t been a lot of hedgers really. More of a general correction with limited implied volatility. Normal corrections we should be in7-10% backwardation

Seth Golden posted an update 1 week ago

China may reduce auto tariff back to previous 15% level https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/gm-ford-shares-jump-on-report-china-is-moving-toward-auto-tariff-cut-trump-hinted-at.html

Seth Golden posted an update 1 week, 4 days ago

CNBC discusses latest NFP report https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xo_Q1umQoEY

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Seth Golden posted an update 1 week, 5 days ago

ADP comes in at 179K jobs created. NFP will be out at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/payroll-growth-slows-in-november-as-labor-market-tightens.html

Seth Golden posted an update 2 weeks ago

Always analyzing the market: Some things just not adding up in favor of a continued market decline if the VIX is indeed being utilized as it has been for institutional fund managers and individual investors hedging risk. On average there are 256 trading days in a year, so when the VIX is at 16 (started the day), the square root of 256, the…[Read more]

Seth Golden posted an update 2 weeks ago

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent on December 3, up from 2.6 percent on November 29. The nowcasts of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth and fourth-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.2 percent and 4.1 percent,…

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Seth Golden posted an update 2 weeks, 1 day ago

Continue to monitor XLF and XLE, financials and energy which may serve to unlock the sustainability of a market rally above S&P 500 2,820, until then we are still vulnerable to declines.

Seth Golden posted an update 2 weeks, 1 day ago

2018’s median VIX is right around 15.50 as we kick-off the final month of the year for traders. We are essentiall back to levels expressed in 2015, when rate hikes first began during this expansion cycle.