Seth Golden – Finom Group

Seth Golden posted an update 1 day, 16 hours ago

Credit Suisse notes

Screen Shot 2019-10-18 at 8.15.50 AM

Seth Golden posted an update 3 days, 10 hours ago

JPM on the retail sales #s
we estimate that real consumer spending increased 2.6% saar in 3Q. This is a notable step down from the robust 4.6% increase reported for 2Q and a little softer than our earlier tracking of the 3Q data (2.8%), but it still represents a healthy pace for spending.

Overall, we now see modest downside risk to our 1.5%…

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Seth Golden posted an update 3 days, 16 hours ago

Goldman Sachs: I. This is the longest economic expansion in US history. 123 months (+) and counting starting in June 2009. The previous expansion record was 120 months (March 1991 to March 2001).

II. S&P had the best Q1-Q3 performance since 1997 . YTD SHARPE = 1.6.

III. This is the best year for the 60-40 stock bond portfolio since 1997 and the…[Read more]

Seth Golden posted an update 5 days, 17 hours ago

Chinese exports down further in September
Exports contracted further by 3.2% yoy in September, roughly in line with consensus expectations. Imports posted a larger year-over-year decline (-8.5% yoy). Exports and imports both contracted in month-over-month terms as well.

Screen Shot 2019-10-14…

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Seth Golden posted an update 5 days, 17 hours ago

JPM on the “mini-deal”
1. The mini-deal delivers another round of truce, a positive and welcome outcome that has been partially priced in.

2. However, the gap between a tentative truce and peace could be large, and US-China tension could escalate again, especially into the election period.

3. Macro impact of the mini deal is limited, in…

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Seth Golden posted an update 6 days, 10 hours ago

While shifted positively toward the end of the week, the S&P has still fallen 1% in the last month. Returns in earnings periods are good, but are even better when the S&P is negative into earnings. Looking back to 1990, the S&P has risen an average of 2% in the first 2W of earnings season when it’s been negative in the month prior to e…

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Seth Golden posted an update 1 week, 1 day ago

GOLDMAN: US growth was boosted after 2018 stimulus, and the waning boost this year “may be overstating the downward trend of growth in the underlying economy. Our findings argue for putting more weight on indicators of today’s growth rate, which are not sending alarming signals”

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