So, what does everyone think the Fed will announce tomorrow? I’m of the opinion they will hike by .25 bps and suggest a pause in future rate hikes based on data dependency and inflation beyond well under control. My outlier is that they also discuss the quantitative tightening aspects from rolling $50bn in treasuries off monthly, possibly hint […] View
So, what does everyone think the Fed will announce tomorrow? I’m of the opinion they will hike by .25 bps and suggest a pause in future rate hikes based on data dependency and inflation beyond well under control. My outlier is that they also discuss the quantitative tightening aspects from rolling $50bn in treasuries off monthly, possibly hint at…[Read more]
Mortgage applications to purchase a home drove much of the volume, rising 3 percent for the week and 4 percent from a year ago. Buyers are usually scarce in December, when the supply of homes for sale is lean and the idea of moving in winter is not particularly appealing in much of the nation. But this year may be an outlier. https://www.cnbc.com/2…[Read more]
Term Structure is still in backwardation which has persisted through much of this correction period. Keep in mind, m2 is the focus as m1 will expire next week Wednesday morning. m2 has only 1% backwardation presently so if all things remain status quo into Dec 19 expiration, we should see backwardation ease. This assumes VIX comes off the 22…
Always analyzing the market: Some things just not adding up in favor of a continued market decline if the VIX is indeed being utilized as it has been for institutional fund managers and individual investors hedging risk. On average there are 256 trading days in a year, so when the VIX is at 16 (started the day), the square root of 256, the…[Read more]
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent on December 3, up from 2.6 percent on November 29. The nowcasts of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth and fourth-quarter real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.2 percent and 4.1 percent,…
2018’s median VIX is right around 15.50 as we kick-off the final month of the year for traders. We are essentiall back to levels expressed in 2015, when rate hikes first began during this expansion cycle.
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