The ECI is the best measure of wage growth, but you still need to look under the hood, not at the headline… …Private sector wages, ex-incentive pay, is the key metric, and it likely slowed further in Q4. If wage growth really is slowing to a sustainable pace, the Fed will find it hard to justify a March rate hike….
Mid-Cycle Brings More Risk than Reward We’re entering mid-cycle faster than normal. Rate of change on growth & policy...
Cross-Asset Strategy: Clients have asked about our conviction in the pro-cyclical trade given the recent decline in bond yields....
The J.P. Morgan View Pandemics, climate change catastrophes and markets The J.P. Morgan View: Pandemics, climate change catastrophes and...
Equity Risk Premium holds key inputs/ingredients After major market sell-offs, it becomes increasingly difficult to achieve lower-lows. They are...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review this week’s SOTM. In...
By Merrill Lynch Macro Strategy—The Calm Before the Storm? Economic indicators continue to support our view that U.S. growth...
The chart below identifies the S&P 500 (SPX) movement through the trading week that was. And it was quite...
While the U.S. Government is shutdown, corporate earnings will still continue to roll in as the tech sector begins...
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