Authored by Thompson Capital Management Recently Forgotten Recency bias. Source: NY Times In psychology, “recency bias” is the term that describes our tendency to use the recent past as the baseline for what will happen in the future. While recent action in markets might suggest that 20 is a ceiling for the VIX Index, that idea is absolutely not supported…
Market veterans know there’s just one thing more probable than a recession after the yield curve inverts: Yield curve...
Our discussions with clients are narrowing to two primary topics: Earnings and Inflation. On the former, we hear many...
Cross-asset strategy: Almost irrespective of macro tremors like the Texas energy shock, Bonds continue to telegraph confidence in the...
IN THIS ISSUE Macro Strategy—A fundamental change in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) approach to achieving its inflation target means...
Last Update: December 22, 2017 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 8.5% from Q3...
Macro Strategy—Soft Landing in Progress?: U.S. economic growth remains sturdy, and favorable recent inflation dynamics give the Federal Reserve...
Narrative vs. Flows, Liquidity-Volatility-Flows Feedback Loop, QE/QT and Liquidity Narrative vs. Flows By Marko Kolanovic, PhD and Bram Kaplan,...
The chart below identifies the S&P 500 (SPX) movement through the trading week that was. And it was quite...
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