https://zoom.us/recording/play/uLKp7zYwIfSYc33D1VLDzLwakfwsdbn73SZTEz-qBjqGtSeUR4UGzADv5ZYFgDpp?continueMode=true

Outline

  1. Market Headwinds: (23 minutes)
  • Apple (AAPL) share price
  • Crude oil price/demand/supply
  • Trade Truce i.e. U.S./China: Corporate uncertainty and investor uncertainty
  • (14 minutes in) FOMC rate hike path, turned dovish, data dependency brought back
  • (16 minutes in) New Home sales, housing commentary
  • (21 minutes in) FedWatch Tool: rate hike probability

2. Government shutdown? (24 minutes in)

  • Trump/Pelossi/Schumer
  • Border wall, border security debate
  • Shutdown proposed without CFR
  • Manmade crisis that is avoidable/new consumer demographics inhibiting housing market
  • (30 minutes in) Strong economy, strong consumer, retail sales, labor market strong
  • (31 minutes in) What if we get trade resolution, pressured trade resolution

3.  Market Crash (33 minutes in)

  • Market decline: S&P 500 “box”, breaking the box, triple top & triple bottom break down
  • (35 minutes in) What are the conditions for bear market, the probabilities
  • (36 minutes in) Volatility in the market vs. Implied Volatility
  • (38 minutes in) Historic volatility
  • (40 minutes in) Not enough market trading volume, hedging volume absent/SKEW Index

4.  Risk Management (43 minutes in)

  • Hedging with cash. Hedging is insurance for your portfolio
  • (48 minutes in) 3 weeks left in calendar year, outlook for EOY
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2 Comments
  1. Ricardo Reisdorfer 3 months ago

    What a great video! Very useful to have a timeline index with well defined topics to scroll the video back and forth. Watched 3 times in a row!

    • Author
      Seth Golden 3 months ago

      Yea, I tried to give an outline so people could skip portions and refer back to the portions of the video they wanted to listen to again.

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