The Leuthold Group: Putting The “Sahm Rule” To The Test

In January, the “inventor” of the yield-curve indicator—Campbell Harvey of Duke University—suggested that the inversion of the 10Y/3M spread was “flashing a false signal,” and a U.S. recession would be avoided. But as the inversion deepened, Harvey abandoned that view, moving squarely into the recession camp. We respect his flexibility. Today, we have another economist…