Biggest errors I’ve (Seth Golden) made:
✅waiting too long long to realize ETFs are Godsends
✅waiting too long to downplay stock picking
✅spending 5yrs studying Technical analysis
✅not spending those yrs primarily on Quants
✅not holding $COST after ’17
✅ Selling $META after 100% gain
Mid-week Summary
Wednesday, June 4th, 2025
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TLDR: We hunt, you read, you decide 🤝
Here’s what’s catching the eye of the sharpest minds in the market today!
Chart of the Week
S&P 500 target of 6,555 from @FrankCappelleri in his note this AM.
To me it is likely, not because of some magic voodoo in price, but the US simply plays catch up with the rest of the world that is already up a lot this year. pic.twitter.com/R99FbrQbuU
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) June 2, 2025
🏆 Today’s Chart of the Week was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick).
My (Luis’) thoughts on the 6,555 target: In 2024 Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) had a price target from an extension of a head n’ shoulders pattern of 6,150. While it was not achieved in 2024, we all know it was roughly achieved (6,147) in February 2025. Given this achievement we would not dismiss this latest price target designated by Frank Cappelleri’s technical works. Having said that, Finom Group’s chief market strategist Seth Golden asks investors/traders to consider that the cyclical work does not herald such an achievement by the S&P 500 in 2025. Why? Simply put, the cyclical fund flows are unlikely setup for such a gain in 2025, as stated by Seth. In fact, there are no cyclical fund flows to support a price objective above 6,400. This does not mean that the price target objective of 6,555 is an impossibility, but rather a very low probability based on alternative analysis. To achieve such a price objective, markets demand some form of endogeny (fiscal or monetary policy tailwind). Let’s be “frank”; we hope Frank Cappelleri is right and Seth Golden is wrong!
Most strategists on or off-Wall Street know a great deal about the economy and markets. What you know, however, doesn’t always benefit ones portfolio. As always, it’s how one behaves that has an overwhelming impact on portfolio performance.
Quote(s) of The Week
How to live a life of happiness…
The Surfer Mentality: pic.twitter.com/ufvygRvoPH
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) June 3, 2025
“The surfer mentality is the idea that when a surfer gets up on a wave, they enjoy the present moment. Even though they know that wave is eventually going to end and maybe even crash down on top of them. They’re able to actually just enjoy this wave with the knowledge that there are always more waves coming in the future. And they know that the most important thing is that you can’t catch any waves sitting on shore. You have put yourself in the water.
That idea as it applies to your life is essential because the knowledge that there are always more waves coming is what allows you to just embrace whatever wave you’re currently on. You may find yourself in this wave of grief, a wave of struggle, a wave of challenge; you may find yourself on a wave of growth, a wave of creation. This wave of incredible things happening.
That wave is eventually going to end, whether it’s good or bad. And recognizing it, and being able to just appreciate it for what it is rather than trying to struggle against it or fight it. Is such a calming and peaceful mentality for just navigating these natural seasons that your life has.“
~ Sahil Bloom
Top 10 Tweets of The Week
Is technical analysis really this good? Or should I rather say, this useless?
I’m not sure I would go so far as to suggest it is useless, but amongst the 3 analytical disciplines it ranks 3rd. 🥉 Don’t forget folks: The markets are at their greatest entertainment value when your boring disciplines prove repeatably profitable!
Reminder, you follow charts because they are more simplistic in artistry, not because they prove practically effective in delivering above avg. results.
1. Quants 2. Fundamentals 3. Technicals
But do have working understanding of all 3 investing disciplines.”
~ Seth Marcus
(yes, in that order!)
My target for the $SPY is $613. Afterwards I’d expect a 38% correction to ~$575. Then we will head higher again for wave 5. pic.twitter.com/lNzVoM2f5y
— dmac (@dana_marlane) June 3, 2025
As a Premium Finom Group member, you are able to experience the 1% for 1% strategy daily/weekly/quarterly/annually. We keep a spreadsheet of every single trade within the strategy, which is also executed precisely in the Golden Capital Portfolio. Trading can be difficult, especially in the era of social and financial media, which often demonstrate and disseminate faulty trading and investing disciplines. For this reason, if not a litany of reasons, we use the 1% for 1%+ strategy as an educational tool and/or resource for Premium Finom Group members. Lastly, and as is always the case, long-term investing is the ideal and best proven approach to investing capital. The Buy and Hold strategy has historically proven the best investing strategy. We simply encourage our Finom Group members to recognize that the 1% for 1%+ strategy is nothing more than an improvement/vertical of the Buy and Hold strategy, for more active portfolio managers/investors.
A powerful idea I can't stop thinking about…
The Power of Tiny Gains:
– Thread – pic.twitter.com/yRjyhkpFwS
— Mindful Maven (@mindfulmaven_) June 3, 2025
June is the 3-yr anniversary of peak #inflation and 2nd calendar year of the achieved soft landing, and yet still nobody can find themselves lauding #FOMC’s ability to deliver this outcome. You are still hearing punditry doubting #Fed ability to achieve what has already been achieved 3 years after 1st hike.
I don’t know the truest definition of what being an a-hole is, but when all the facts are there and one continues to deny and lambast… sounds like it should be included in the definition. It’s like telling someone the sun has risen this morning and they reply with “nope.”
📢It's officially a SOFT LANDING
Avg. duration from 1st rate hike to recession = 27mn Avg. duration from last hike to recession = 9mn
Avg. duration from 1st rate cut to recession = 3mn Consensus data estimated #recession Apr. 2024$SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA $NDX $TLT pic.twitter.com/pHXsASPgMa— Seth Golden (@SethCL) May 3, 2024
2025 Post-Election Year $SPX Cycle
Early Summer Consolidation (red) may prove just ahead and before a Summer Rally (green).
Remember, the Cycle is a representation of the average!
The #PresidentialCycle has long been a key driver of market behavior and 2025 – being the first year after a U.S. election – is no exception.
After a challenging first quarter, markets tend to stage a strong second-quarter recovery, driven by renewed investor optimism and… pic.twitter.com/OM1cIFftGm
— WallStreetCourier (@WallStCourier) May 22, 2025
ISM manufacturing has been in #recession for 2.5 yrs. Industrial Production is also in multi-month decline.
With aforementioned in mind, show me the recession/problem? The goods producing side of the economy is slightly contracting, no need to yell fire in a crowded theatre.
ISM Mfg on tap… still below 50, early cycle @fundstrat @fundstrat https://t.co/bhyZZcJsr2
"This remains the 'most hated' V-shaped stock rally." pic.twitter.com/J9VpAZKWuj
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 2, 2025
A third very hated rally. ATHs in sight and on target.
Retail is stepping up. via @fundstrat @fs_insight
Stocks have entered a new bull market says Fundstrat's Tom Lee pic.twitter.com/wUwIERmArz
— Barchart (@Barchart) May 31, 2025
Smart Money bearish divergence has presented itself.
Can retail (dumb money) carry the market higher?
Looking forward to seeing if a true transition in categorization of smart vs. dumb money takes hold.
Update to the popular BoA client 4-week net flows chart, and it's hard to see but hedge funds have flipped to small net buyers (+$0.2bn four-week avg) to join retail (+$0.8bn) which though has fallen by more than half from the peak.
Institutions though remain big sellers… https://t.co/GyDAJW07vw pic.twitter.com/5jFIjdcSYv
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) June 3, 2025
Risk/Reward setup for bonds is growing the longer it remains in correction.
Now the longest bond bear market since 1976. In fact the current correction in the bond market is more than 3X longer than any prior and with the largest drawdown during the stated period.
$TLT – Anyone else bottom fishing bonds here?
Bullish RSI Divergence.
Failed Breakdown with well defined risk. pic.twitter.com/aZrhUHIr30— Larry Thompson, CMT CPA (@HostileCharts) June 3, 2025
“When traders complain about manipulated markets they are usually not complaining about the manipulation, but rather, they are not able to do the manipulating!” – Seth Marcus
In order to avoid stock manipulation of this sort that is nothing more than a pump and dump to scam retail, many countries automatically suspend trading for the day once a stock raises 8%-10% in a single day (not only when it goes down of a big amount) and then investigate.. https://t.co/gpPCGkiciX pic.twitter.com/MRwfGTR7dW
— JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) June 3, 2025
Don’t let yourself become prisoner of the moment. Easy to placate and succumb to the environment, embellish and amplify the trending price action more than need be and latch onto hypothesis that often prove to be momentary and fail to generate anything constructive.
If use case and transactions don’t materially increase with less of everything else stated, what is crypto? What’s the use then? I mean can only halve to an end game practically because at some point miners know their probabilities per/rig cost operation to achieve Bitcoin mined and decide the cost is too high based on the probabilities.
Do we not think halvings have a finality. Do the math folks. If lesser bitcoins, lesser rigs, lesser miners…. What’s the end game here supposed to be without incremental transaction increases?
Always be mindful of position size, bad position size is the root of all discipline. Fail the discipline and the portfolio performance often follows.
Here is a story that got overlooked last week.
Google now has a quantum computing chip that could crack the Bitcoin/crypto algorithm 20x faster than previously anticipated. Which means that in a few years someone could decipher crypto and steal $3 trillion:
Blackrock is… pic.twitter.com/lU5vNqOVm1
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 2, 2025
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Finom Group – Recent Reports
Are Fund Flows Back To Their Regularly Scheduled Programming
