I call this test my New Opportunity Razor… Here are the two questions to assess any new opportunity: 1. Do I like the winning version of this thing? Imagine yourself five years in the future. This new thing you’ve taken on is crushing it. You’re up there with the best at it. Do you like what that looks like as it relates to your life, time, and energy? In other words, if you make it to the top, are you going to like the view from the summit? This is a critical first step, because too often in life we climb a mountain for years, get to the top, and realize that we never really wanted the view in the first place. If you don’t like the life of the person in the corner office, you may want to think about that before you sacrifice 20 years grinding away to get it (or figure out how you’re going to do it differently, at least). If the answer is no, stop here and say no to the opportunity. If the answer is yes, proceed to the second question… 2. Am I willing to do the losing version of this thing for a long time? To earn anything meaningful in life, it’s going to take a long, long time. Probably much longer than even your most optimistic initial assumptions. An American computer scientist named Douglas Hofstadter once coined the self-referential adage, Hofstadter’s Law, which states: “It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.” So, knowing this, do you have energy to do the losing, bad, ugly version of this thing for a long time in order to earn the winning version that you like? You may dive into something because of the appeal of the summit, but you’ll never make it there if you don’t embrace the mud you have to crawl through on the climb. The people who have reached those summits have one common trait: They loved the mud. They obsessed over the details. They had real energy for it. When asked about how he had sustained his high level play for so long, tennis legend Novak Djokovic had a simple response: "I can carry on playing at this level because I like hitting the tennis ball." The summit is the grand slam championships. Standing on center court, holding the trophy high in the air. Everyone likes that version. But the way you earn it is through thousands upon thousands of hours of hitting the ball. In the cold. In the dark. In the rain. When nobody’s watching. When nobody’s cheering. When nobody cares. The losing version is the cost of entry for the winning version. The New Opportunity Razor has been a major life cheat code. The best opportunities for your life will pass this test. You'll love the summit and the mud you have to navigate to get there. When you find those things, go all in. Say no to everything else. - Sahil Bloom (https://x.com/sahilbloom/status/2051997395827798274?s=46)

Market Mania – FinX Weekly Top Tweets #27

Weekly Articles

“How do you know when to double-down on a position? Only when you’re willing to triple-down on a position!”
“When the market does the opposite of your expectations, repeatedly, it is detailing through price that your understandings and assertions are wrong.”
“Some industries and sectors have entered the “it’s not what you make, it’s what you keep” portion of the cyclical conversation.”
– SETH GOLDEN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT FINOMGROUP.COM
(CONTRIBUTOR/PREMIUM MEMBERS ONLY)

Rip Roaring April Delivers A May Surprise?

Research Reports

Happy weekend, Finom Group investors and traders!
We invite you to review the following third party research from Rocky White at Schaeffers, Tom Lee at Fundstrat, Frank Cappelleri at CappThesis, The Team at Ned Davis Research, and Jen Nash at Advisor Perspectives.
We will be back on schedule with our full proprietary research report next Sunday. (2 weeks on, 1 week off)

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Buy & Hold Strikes Again

Research Reports

Happy weekend, Finom Group investors and traders!
We invite you to review the following third party research from Merrill Lynch, Leuthold Group, CappThesis, and Ned Davis Research
We will be back on schedule with our full proprietary research report next Sunday. (2 weeks on, 1 week off)

Quick note from Seth Golden, Chief Equity Market Strategist at Finom Group: Unfortunately, my X account was hacked as of this past Friday and we have notified X Support of the matter in order to remedy the situation. Until further notice, please do not engage the account and if time permits kindly contact support with a complaint under "imposter" account. Thank you for your time and indeed, we'll see you back here next week with our proprietary macro-market Research Report. With the markets rebounding strongly over the past 8 days and nearly back to breakeven year-to-date, there's no better time to catch up with our most recent data and analytics, by reviewing last weekend's proprietary report linked here. 

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Take a Deep Breadth…

Research Reports

Welcome to a special Intra-Week 3rd-Party Research Update!

Good Thursday to our investors and traders. While our proprietary reports typically drop on Sundays, the current geopolitical friction warrants an immediate 50,000-foot overview. As markets navigate the exogenous shocks stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, we insist on providing a high-level look at external insights to help frame the ongoing, and to be expected, midterm year volatility.

Today’s update features perspectives from Ed Clissold and Thanh Nguyen at Ned Davis Research, strategic analysis from RBA (Richard Bernstein Advisors), Pantheon Macroeconomics, Luke Kawa & David Crowther at Sherwood News, and a concise look at P/E multiple contraction from Matt Cerminaro at The Compound.

We’ll be back this Sunday, per usual, with our full Macro-Market Research Report and proprietary FINOM GROUP analytics! 📊 😉

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Better off economy than headlines and prices assume

Research Reports

Current geopolitical tensions add support to our high-conviction theme of aerospace and defense. But it is time to reframe and widen the lens when it comes to investing in defense. Modern defense is no longer just missiles, tanks and large defense contractors. Rather, it is an entire industrial ecosystem—ranging from rare earth minerals to semiconductor fabs to satellites and undersea cables to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digital infrastructure.

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NYSE High-Low Logic Index crossed above 1.65 threshold, whereby past readings of extremely bifurcated mkt found corrections w/in 6 months, if not a bear mkt. 2018: -13% and -20% 2019: -35% 2021: -25% Conditional, not causal. Difference this time is reading of New Highs is being led by small-cap weights and New Lows by larger-cap weights. The HLL reading has never occurred w/this dynamic. We question, therefore, how this gets resolved.

Concentration Risks Revealed In Many Ways In 2026

Research Reports

Welcome to a special Intra-Week 3rd Party Research Update! Good Thursday to our investors and traders. While our proprietary reports typically drop on Sundays, the current market “out of gear” phase warrants an immediate look at 3rd-party insights from Ed Clissold and Thanh Nguyen at Ned Davis Research, as well as the senior team at…...

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Market Mania – FinX Weekly Top 10 #26

Weekly Articles

“You only get paid to take risk, not to know there’s always risk about the markets.” “This dollar-cost-averaging exercise is why I often suggest there is no such thing as a bad market, only lost opportunity. It’s the lost opportunity that investors often accrue and compound, with great misfortune.” “I’m not competing for World’s Smallest Drawdown. I’ve never seen such a trophy ceremony; have you?”

January 2026 – Monthly Quant Recap

Weekly Articles

This recap provides a comprehensive synthesis of recent market analysis, focusing on the performance and validity of key quantitative signals monitored over the past several months and outlining the strategic outlook for 2026. The analysis reveals a high success rate for bullish quantitative indicators throughout 2025, which correctly forecasted positive market returns and the absence of a recession despite deteriorating breadth and pessimistic sentiment. The powerful Zweig Breadth Thrust signal from April 2025, in particular, has proven exceptionally reliable, with its forecast for positive 6- and 12-month returns and no recession holding true.

Market Mania – FinX Weekly Top 10 #25

Weekly Articles

“99% of bearish narratives are really metaphors explaining an inability to manage cash wisely.” “Simple doesn’t mean wrong anymore than complicated means right.” “Systems are mostly foolproof, until humans engage the system. Do it right or don’t do it at all… it demands proper dedication else there’s no possibility of cognitive retention of scale and practicality.”