Pessimists Sound Smart, Optimists Make Money

Research Reports

Happy U.S. Semiquincentennial Anniversary weekend, Finom Group investors and traders!

🇺🇸 ❤️🤍💙 🙏 

"Remember…America was built on optimism and your life should be built on the same.

There will always be challenges but Americans rise to them."

- Michael Antonelli

We invite you to review the following third party research from Nikhith Mudhasani at Bluekurtic MI, Rob Anderson at Ned Davis Research, Jim Paulsen at PaulsenPerspectives, and Jessica Rabe & Nick Colas at DataTrek Research.

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Bounce With Breadth, To New Highs?

Research Reports

Happy weekend, Finom Group investors and traders!
We invite you to review the following third party research from BofA Securties US Equity & Quant Strategy Team, Ned Davis Research, David Bush at REKTelligence, and Frank Cappelerri at CAPPThesis.
We will be back on schedule with our full proprietary research report next Sunday. (2 weeks on, 1 week off)

We’ll see you back here next week per usual with our proprietary macro-market Research Report. Please don't forget to review last weekend’s proprietary report linked here.

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Line chart of the S&P 500 with shaded periods showing when each sector had the highest RSI. Technology (XLK) leads the strongest forward returns at ~54% annualized, while utilities and energy show weaker outcomes. Bottom panel maps sector leadership over time.

Sold in May and Semis Going Cray

Research Reports

Happy weekend, Finom Group investors and traders!
We invite you to review the following third party research from Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe at DataTrek, The CMT Association, London Stockton at NDR Research, Dan Rosenberg at Charles Schwab, Jen Nash at VettaFi Advisor Perspectives, and Ben Carlson at A Wealth Of Common Sense.
We will be back on schedule with our full proprietary research report next Sunday. (2 weeks on, 1 week off)

We’ll see you back here next week per usual with our proprietary macro-market Research Report. Please don't forget to review last weekend’s proprietary report linked here.

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Macro-Market Nifty 9 Must Knows For Investors

Weekly Articles

Each week I (Seth Golden) write a macro-market Research Report at finomgroup.com, for thousands of investors, strategists and portfolio managers around the world. The following excerpts are taken from this weekly report, for which is title the Weekly Nifty 9 Must Knows! Check it out below, and for access to the full report, subscribe to our Contributor or Premium membership plans and receive access to our full-scale and best-in-class analytics each week.

I call this test my New Opportunity Razor… Here are the two questions to assess any new opportunity: 1. Do I like the winning version of this thing? Imagine yourself five years in the future. This new thing you’ve taken on is crushing it. You’re up there with the best at it. Do you like what that looks like as it relates to your life, time, and energy? In other words, if you make it to the top, are you going to like the view from the summit? This is a critical first step, because too often in life we climb a mountain for years, get to the top, and realize that we never really wanted the view in the first place. If you don’t like the life of the person in the corner office, you may want to think about that before you sacrifice 20 years grinding away to get it (or figure out how you’re going to do it differently, at least). If the answer is no, stop here and say no to the opportunity. If the answer is yes, proceed to the second question… 2. Am I willing to do the losing version of this thing for a long time? To earn anything meaningful in life, it’s going to take a long, long time. Probably much longer than even your most optimistic initial assumptions. An American computer scientist named Douglas Hofstadter once coined the self-referential adage, Hofstadter’s Law, which states: “It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.” So, knowing this, do you have energy to do the losing, bad, ugly version of this thing for a long time in order to earn the winning version that you like? You may dive into something because of the appeal of the summit, but you’ll never make it there if you don’t embrace the mud you have to crawl through on the climb. The people who have reached those summits have one common trait: They loved the mud. They obsessed over the details. They had real energy for it. When asked about how he had sustained his high level play for so long, tennis legend Novak Djokovic had a simple response: "I can carry on playing at this level because I like hitting the tennis ball." The summit is the grand slam championships. Standing on center court, holding the trophy high in the air. Everyone likes that version. But the way you earn it is through thousands upon thousands of hours of hitting the ball. In the cold. In the dark. In the rain. When nobody’s watching. When nobody’s cheering. When nobody cares. The losing version is the cost of entry for the winning version. The New Opportunity Razor has been a major life cheat code. The best opportunities for your life will pass this test. You'll love the summit and the mud you have to navigate to get there. When you find those things, go all in. Say no to everything else. - Sahil Bloom (https://x.com/sahilbloom/status/2051997395827798274?s=46)

Market Mania – FinX Weekly Top Tweets #27

Weekly Articles

“How do you know when to double-down on a position? Only when you’re willing to triple-down on a position!”
“When the market does the opposite of your expectations, repeatedly, it is detailing through price that your understandings and assertions are wrong.”
“Some industries and sectors have entered the “it’s not what you make, it’s what you keep” portion of the cyclical conversation.”
– SETH GOLDEN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT FINOMGROUP.COM
(CONTRIBUTOR/PREMIUM MEMBERS ONLY)

Rip Roaring April Delivers A May Surprise?

Research Reports

Happy weekend, Finom Group investors and traders!
We invite you to review the following third party research from Rocky White at Schaeffers, Tom Lee at Fundstrat, Frank Cappelleri at CappThesis, The Team at Ned Davis Research, and Jen Nash at Advisor Perspectives.
We will be back on schedule with our full proprietary research report next Sunday. (2 weeks on, 1 week off)

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Buy & Hold Strikes Again

Research Reports

Happy weekend, Finom Group investors and traders!
We invite you to review the following third party research from Merrill Lynch, Leuthold Group, CappThesis, and Ned Davis Research
We will be back on schedule with our full proprietary research report next Sunday. (2 weeks on, 1 week off)

Quick note from Seth Golden, Chief Equity Market Strategist at Finom Group: Unfortunately, my X account was hacked as of this past Friday and we have notified X Support of the matter in order to remedy the situation. Until further notice, please do not engage the account and if time permits kindly contact support with a complaint under "imposter" account. Thank you for your time and indeed, we'll see you back here next week with our proprietary macro-market Research Report. With the markets rebounding strongly over the past 8 days and nearly back to breakeven year-to-date, there's no better time to catch up with our most recent data and analytics, by reviewing last weekend's proprietary report linked here. 

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Take a Deep Breadth…

Research Reports

Welcome to a special Intra-Week 3rd-Party Research Update!

Good Thursday to our investors and traders. While our proprietary reports typically drop on Sundays, the current geopolitical friction warrants an immediate 50,000-foot overview. As markets navigate the exogenous shocks stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, we insist on providing a high-level look at external insights to help frame the ongoing, and to be expected, midterm year volatility.

Today’s update features perspectives from Ed Clissold and Thanh Nguyen at Ned Davis Research, strategic analysis from RBA (Richard Bernstein Advisors), Pantheon Macroeconomics, Luke Kawa & David Crowther at Sherwood News, and a concise look at P/E multiple contraction from Matt Cerminaro at The Compound.

We’ll be back this Sunday, per usual, with our full Macro-Market Research Report and proprietary FINOM GROUP analytics! 📊 😉

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Better off economy than headlines and prices assume

Research Reports

Current geopolitical tensions add support to our high-conviction theme of aerospace and defense. But it is time to reframe and widen the lens when it comes to investing in defense. Modern defense is no longer just missiles, tanks and large defense contractors. Rather, it is an entire industrial ecosystem—ranging from rare earth minerals to semiconductor fabs to satellites and undersea cables to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digital infrastructure.

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NYSE High-Low Logic Index crossed above 1.65 threshold, whereby past readings of extremely bifurcated mkt found corrections w/in 6 months, if not a bear mkt. 2018: -13% and -20% 2019: -35% 2021: -25% Conditional, not causal. Difference this time is reading of New Highs is being led by small-cap weights and New Lows by larger-cap weights. The HLL reading has never occurred w/this dynamic. We question, therefore, how this gets resolved.

Concentration Risks Revealed In Many Ways In 2026

Research Reports

Welcome to a special Intra-Week 3rd Party Research Update! Good Thursday to our investors and traders. While our proprietary reports typically drop on Sundays, the current market “out of gear” phase warrants an immediate look at 3rd-party insights from Ed Clissold and Thanh Nguyen at Ned Davis Research, as well as the senior team at…...

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