“I don’t use volume very often. The only really good use for volume is to identify washouts. It’s the main thing it helps you with. You know, you’ll always hear people say, “Oh, the market went up, up, up on light volume.
That’s all it ever does. That’s called a melt-up. That’s what markets do — they generally have lighter volume on the upside and heavier volume on the downside.
It’s what investing is all about. You get lighter volume on the upside because buying is a process — it’s slower and takes more consideration, so it doesn’t happen all at once. Selling is quite the opposite — it usually happens all at once because something is scaring investors.
It’s an emotional response. It doesn’t take a lot of time; you’re scared, so you sell. So, there’s almost always greater volume on the downside.
I was looking at that chart and recognizing that this is very big volume — not as much as April 2nd, probably —
but still, man alive, that’s more volume in a bull market than we’ve seen since the bear market of 2022, which also established a low here.
That’s why I’m saying this may be telling us something. And the fact that we didn’t have a closing price this low —
we may have set the low from which a new bull market in Health Care can start.
“How can you say that just on a couple of stochastics, Seth? An RSI and a volume indicator?” Because I just did. It doesn’t mean I’m going to be right.
They are — I agree with you — just a couple of stochastics. They don’t have to tell us the future; that’s all they are. But that’s technical analysis for you, folks —
it doesn’t predict the future but simply renders the past.”
– SETH GOLDEN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT FINOMGROUP.COM, regarding $XLV on August 14th, 2025.
(CONTRIBUTOR/PREMIUM MEMBERS ONLY)
MID-WEEK SUMMARY
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 22nd, 2025
WELCOME TO MARKET MANIA #17! – Blocked by Headlines, Driven by Tape
The market enters late October balancing on a razor’s edge—rebounding from headline-driven volatility, digesting ongoing policy risk, and primed for the pivotal third-quarter earnings season. Investors have spent the week warily watching the tape, as a fractured government shutdown clouds visibility and tariff tremors keep markets on high alert.
This cycle’s defining message: ignore the hyperbole, trust the data. Nowhere has that been clearer than in the global ripple sparked by the latest crypto panic, which erased over $370 billion in market cap almost overnight. Bitcoin’s sharp plunge and a coinciding spike in hedging demand tested risk appetites across asset classes, briefly undermining investor confidence before markets refocused on fundamentals.
Adding fuel to the anxiety, early Q3 reports from large-cap leaders haven’t soothed nerves. Netflix and Tesla have both stumbled at the starting line, sending ripples through mega-cap growth sentiment and triggering defensive hedges across portfolios. In any other context, you might expect such a markdown to be met with opportunistic buying—a “Macy’s sale” moment. But this isn’t about panic; it’s about fund flows, as liquidity, rotation, and hedge rebalancing—not fundamentals—have dictated the latest price action. This is simply the market taking a deep breath before resuming its data-driven advance.
Remember, there’s no such thing as seasonality; fund flows are SCHEDULED, not seasonal and not random!
Your Public Service Announcement has ended. We’ll now return to our regularly SCHEDULED program! $SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $VIX $NVDA https://t.co/9llE2L9Ttr
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 22, 2025
October’s seasonal volatility peak has historically preceded best 3-month span. From November through January, NASDAQ has advanced 6.2% on average and S&P has gained 4.4%. https://t.co/FcX7AGiWXe pic.twitter.com/3GVYQpTStn
— Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) October 15, 2025
Because here’s the rule that matters most: the difference between an exogenous/endogenous shock and a VAR shock lay within the data. If every systematic framework—quant models, earnings trend lines, correlation structures—starts breaking down, something has truly changed. But that is not this. The data still points to positive earnings growth, strong productivity, and resilient consumption. The signal hasn’t failed; only the sentiment has failed.
Now, with the narrative reset and Q3 earnings broadening, the path to a data-fueled Q4 rally looks intact. Macro gloom is overblown, volatility is simply rebalancing, and every fearful rotation leaves disciplined investors with better positioning ahead of what remains a structurally bullish setup.
Lean into the data. Manage cash and sizes wisely. Leave feelings to the headlines.
Volatility may cloud the moment—but beneath the noise, the roadmap hasn’t changed. Earnings are still the North Star. And as always, when the tape leads, follow it. The rest is just static.
Ready to dive into the full Q4 research, trade signals, and macro context? The key evidence and actionable ideas follow 👇.
CHART(S) OF THE WEEK
🏆 TODAY’S CHART OF THE WEEK WAS SHARED BY SETH GOLDEN and BLUEKURTIC (@SethCL and @BLUEKURTIC):
Apple and Nvidia have exchanged performance in each of last 2 decades.
What will the next decade look like between the 2 heavyweights?
Will Apple resume Outperformance over next decade? $SPX $NDX $QQQ $NVDA $AAPL $NVDL $SPY $SOXX pic.twitter.com/4drQ8qt62G
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 22, 2025
Should you buy Apple?
Apple hits a new ATH for 1st time since Dec 2024. Only the 12th time it’s taken over 6 months to do so.
In 11 prior cases $AAPL was positive 10 times a year later, 91% positivity rate w/median gain of 32%.
A 32% gain = $350+ per share
I'm a dip-buyer!… pic.twitter.com/udkMAhUTPJ— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 22, 2025
🏆 Chart(s) of the Week: The Magnificent 7 — The Shift in Market Sovereigns—Apple vs. Nvidia and the History of ATHs
This week features a pair of timely, narrative-rich visual deep-dives from Chief Equity Market Strategist at Finom Group Seth Golden and Bluekurtic Market Insights, both shining a fresh light on how performance cycles, regime changes, and new highs shape market leadership—and investment returns.
Decade Swaps: Apple vs. Nvidia’s Tug-of-War
Seth’s first chart slices two decades of comparative performance between $AAPL and $NVDA with surgical precision. In clear relief, we see how the torch of market outperformance passes back and forth: Apple absolutely ruled the first decade (2004–2014) with relentless leadership, but then Nvidia stole the show, running away with the conversation in the following ten years (2015–2025).
At the close of this second regime, the question becomes essential: after a full cycle of Apple underperformance, does history rhyme with another reversal? Will Apple reclaim its throne—just as Nvidia did a decade ago—or is the new order here to stay? With market cycles so heavily influenced by innovation, capital flows, and macro factors, today’s “underdog” is never long out of the spotlight. The market continuously rewrites who leads and who follows.
The Power of All-Time Highs: Apple’s Statistical Edge
Right on cue, the second chart from Bluekurtic highlighted by Seth Golden drills into Apple’s latest all-time high, offering clear, actionable context. Apple’s breakthrough in October marks only the 12th time in history it’s taken more than six months to revisit uncharted territory after December 2024’s previous ATH. According to the data, this setup boasts an impressive track record: in 11 prior cases, Apple was up a year later 91% of the time, serving up a median gain of 32%. In today’s market, that translates into a projected move to over $350/share if history—and dip-buyers—hold true.
The supporting table traces every similar episode, underscoring Apple’s durability and the value of context when headlines turn chaotic. With a massive 48% average return a year later, and more than 10 out of 11 occurences of positive performance in the 2, 6 months, and 12 months ahead, this isn’t just a momentum chase—it’s a statistically grounded thesis for capital allocation and risk management.
Context and Narrative
Recent weeks have tested nerves—crypto cracks, large-cap stumbles, and defensive rotation haven’t been Macy’s-style bargains. But the tape, not headlines, continues to dictate. Apple’s potential regime change and historical edge call for tactical optimism. Nvidia’s story proves that market duration matters; leadership rotates, and the patient, data-driven investor wins.
The lesson: look where the cycles calibrate, not just where the headlines point. Manage risk as carefully as you manage conviction. As always—welcome to Market Mania, where history and quants set the guideposts, and superior preparation means being ready for the next market sovereign to emerge.
BONUS:
2nd worst 3-yr stretch Defensive Sectors vs $SPX ever! Defense has trailed by 52% in 2025, more than run up to DOTCOM top. Only trailing 2021
This kind of "risk appetite" eventually resulted in severe RISK OFF behavior thereafter. Dotcom bust SPX fell -49% and 2022 at -25%… pic.twitter.com/GoZwntpXi0
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 22, 2025
“Loan balances at banks look historically low compared to deposits they hold, which should tell you they have more than enough cushion to handle unpaid loans…"
If youre worried about bank credit, loan-loss reserves… "Practice, not a game, you're talking about practice…"… pic.twitter.com/9belpqI8hb
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 22, 2025
#SP500 has stayed above its 20-day moving average for only 141 days so far in 2025 compared to 169 in 2023 and 200 in 2024. Historically, positive years spend far longer above the 20DMA, strengthening the case that $SPX might resume its Q4 rally. $SPY #SPX pic.twitter.com/ONt9oItOTQ
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) October 20, 2025
In just 2 weeks, markets will enter the Best 6 Month Period to own stocks, November – April.
No more "Sell in May"
Positivity rate = 78%
Average 6-month return = +7% $SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM $NYA $ES_F $SMH $NDX pic.twitter.com/AoqLLBCHDm— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 19, 2025
QUOTE(S) OF THE WEEK
Investing quote of the day via @EddyElfenbein: pic.twitter.com/1ldQxOO3ED
— Meb Faber (@MebFaber) October 17, 2025
Being afraid something you own will go down is scary
Being afraid something you own won't stop going up is even scarier
— 🏴☠️ (@calvinfroedge) October 17, 2025
Nobody can force you to stay the course and everyone will try to convince you to avoid every drawdown.
You don't achieve a return on capital by avoiding drawdowns; you get a return on capital buying drawdowns and selling at higher prices. Down is good, up is simply better!
— Finom Group AYNI Luis Solórzano (@aynirealtor) October 14, 2025
Yep, 🇬🇷,… https://t.co/6zqN7sb7ho
— David H (@JIMROInvest) October 17, 2025
We often overlook the beauty of simplicity. Some of the most profound insights are found in the elegant and uncomplicated.
— Prof. Feynman (@ProfFeynman) October 18, 2025
Imagine in 1925 you told someone that in 2025 we'd have
– Self-driving cars,
– instant communication with anyone on the planet for free in hi-res video,
– Infinite encyclopedias in our pockets
– self-landing rockets,
– treatments for ~all common diseases of that time,
-… https://t.co/jPlvLBsXWk— Atman (@atmanpandya) October 19, 2025
"The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily."
-Charlie Munger pic.twitter.com/D3bTu78DN3— Peter Mallouk (@PeterMallouk) October 20, 2025
Elon Musk: Most people don't grow because they lie to themselves. pic.twitter.com/3847Y4T3Vn
— mitsuri (@0xmitsurii) October 20, 2025
— Finom Group AYNI Luis Solórzano (@aynirealtor) October 17, 2025
“The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge.”
— Aristotle
— Reads with Ravi (@readswithravi) October 19, 2025
cc: @aynirealtor pic.twitter.com/5L0kGa50TX
— Knowledge Is Money 💰 (@knowledgeimoney) October 22, 2025
TOP 10 TWEETS OF THE WEEK
He's right.
Historically, a rising $RSPD / $RSPS ratio has coincided with stronger S&P 500 ( $SPY ) performance than when the ratio was falling. https://t.co/tD0Z7NpzKm pic.twitter.com/LzZsVNEm25
— Randy Dunham (@itmrandy) October 21, 2025
Key price point for Silver in play this quarter!$SLV $GLD $SIL $SILJ pic.twitter.com/AJRMAqp21s
— Chris Kimble (@KimbleCharting) October 21, 2025
Unlike equities, gold tends to be the most volatile during periods when it's price performance has been the strongest. $GLD pic.twitter.com/bXFl4HPjM7
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 20, 2025
Tech jobs starting to pick back up after global tariff pause at start of year. pic.twitter.com/z5rm9T8p2f
— Sean D. Emory (@_SeanDavid) October 21, 2025
Another potential downleg before the year-end #chase begins. October is the largest calendar year-end for mutual funds, which could lead to month-end selling pressure. pic.twitter.com/H0gBu0cPHU
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) October 21, 2025
The Tech sector’s weighting in the S&P is now at record highs, eclipsing its early 2000 peak: pic.twitter.com/grl0O8VglS
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 21, 2025
While counterintuitive, economic expansions often see periods of declining oil prices. Such is the case now, with the price of WTI 20 pct lower than a year ago.
— Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) (@DataTrekMB) October 21, 2025
NASDAQ’s astonishing yearend rally, up 88.9% of the time from its October closing low to yearend. Average gain +9.6%. Single post-election year loss was in 1973, when Arab oil embargo began. https://t.co/R9vB1Ajwky pic.twitter.com/M0R4KBViP5
— Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) October 21, 2025
#bitcoin vs. #gold Is it finally go time? pic.twitter.com/QDUDfK4Jaw
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) October 21, 2025
Near the lows in April, Harry Dent told us a crash was coming and stocks would fall 99%.
To quote bob Uecker, "Just a bit outside." pic.twitter.com/wnSITKOySw
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 21, 2025
10-day P/C Ratio has proven a most reliable mrkt regime indicator of complacency or fear. 2021's overly complacent/bullish regime led to one of the more fearful/bearish regimes in 2022
Lower quadrant levels likely achieved Q4 can presage 2026 fearful fund flow revival, lesser… pic.twitter.com/V6ENrp132N
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 21, 2025
Someone, please… "I'm sure it's nuthin', right?"
Read the former post…
Let's hope 👃we're wrong…#GOLD #SPX500 #Macro #economy #China #Taiwan https://t.co/svFLmL3NNs pic.twitter.com/ExF8b5cMRj
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 21, 2025
Im old enough to remember when they were screaming 😱 for even lower prices in ‘22 because no bear mrkt had ever trough with P/E > than 15X
Like price, P/E volatility is the Earnings you pay for a higher P/E over time. Dont shoot the messenger, literally what chart outlines.… https://t.co/pPsf5UQvee
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 19, 2025
May all your cows, by Hol-e-cows (Phil Rizzuto)
A true breakout in Nasdaq 100 P/E (~29X)
💎Rule of 3:
🔷Knock on the floor 3 times and cascade lower
🔷Bang on the ceiling 3 times and bust through 🚀$NDX $SPX $QQQ $COMPQ $XLK $SPY $SMH $TQQQ pic.twitter.com/B3C9Vx4Do9— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 20, 2025
SLOWLY BUT SURELY 👇👇
Schwab Trading Activity Index (STAX) 46.12% – Schwab Clients still subdued since 2022🐻market.This is what they've been buying $NVDA $OPEN $CRWV $BMNR $ORCL $PLTR $AMZN $MSFT $AMD pic.twitter.com/WEGftH4aMK
— Sman Cometh (@STaylor76084368) October 21, 2025
Who remembers those Fed balance sheet / S&P 500 charts? You don't see those so much any more pic.twitter.com/MbvGoRiUPP
— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) October 20, 2025
October still has 10 trading days to go, but if it ends positive, NASDAQ 100 would have gone up for 7 straight months
This was BULLISH for $NDX in the past pic.twitter.com/9Dd3FBSHoV
— The Market Stats (@TheMarketStats) October 20, 2025
According to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.. it’s too early to give stocks the all-clear as trade tensions, slowing EPS revisions & credit cracks keep near-term risk elevated. He warned that $SPX could drop up to 11% if U.S.-China tensions persist into Nov. pic.twitter.com/HMlwCJxv9W
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) October 20, 2025
When #VIX falls below 20% after 40%+ spike in 10 day period, 12-month returns were positive 83% of the time with median gain of 14.4%. Last signal was on 10/13, signaling the bull market may be far from over. $VIX #Volatility $SPX #SPX $SPY
h/t: Modified @SethCL's fav indicator pic.twitter.com/f9nsRQVKQD— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) October 19, 2025
#Ethereum has been outperforming #Bitcoin since around the time @fundstrat announced $BMNR. Many believe $ETH is having its “Bitcoin 2017 moment” and could continue to outperform $BTC in the long run. The ratio still shows room for further upside.#Crypto #ETH #BTC $ETH $BTC pic.twitter.com/2vee56F9LX
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) October 19, 2025
On average, the S&P 500 gained 9.21% over the next three months when the intraday VIX drawdown exceeded 25% from its highs. https://t.co/CZP9jt5pom pic.twitter.com/hx1ogGesrg
— Duality Research (@DualityResearch) October 17, 2025
Regional #banks ( $KRE) underperformed #SP500 by over 8% in 2 days. Only the 9th time since 2008. This doesn’t signal weakness in $SPX. In prior 8 cases, $SPX rose 7 of 8 times a month later with a median gain of 4.2%. On a relative basis, it gained 6.2%. $SPY #SPY #SPX #KRE pic.twitter.com/31Dm9L6uLn
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) October 18, 2025
Just a reminder https://t.co/QAEcsjPjxy
— Jenny Horne (@J_B_Horne) October 17, 2025
May – Oct are worst 6-months to own stocks since 1950. But when $SPX gains 5%+, Q4 has NEVER been negative.
Some give back in Oct sets up compounding returns in Nov. and Dec. Avg. Q4 return +6.64%. That's 6.64% from Sept 30th close (6,688)‼️
I don't know who your Daddy is, but… pic.twitter.com/RzLW9aQYDV
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 17, 2025
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