“If there is such a thing as “up is bad”, it’s when the HLL Indexes are doing this and break into warning levels. Both are currently at their respective “high alert levels” (NYSE HLL is a warning above 1.50). It is important to keep in mind, however, warnings can survive many, many months before the indices actually render a larger correction/pullback/bear market.”
Wall Street: “Valuations are a poor timing tool.”
Look, nobody goes to a construction site with a spoon to screw in drywall. Either the tool works or it doesn’t; there are no degrees of difficulty!
Don’t let Wall Street mumbo-jumbo fool ya!
– SETH GOLDEN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT FINOMGROUP.COM
(CONTRIBUTOR/PREMIUM MEMBERS ONLY)
MID-WEEK SUMMARY
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5TH, 2025
Welcome to Market Mania—November’s Opening Act: Bullish Signals, Cautious Undercurrents
Entering November, the market finds itself riding the momentum of a six-month S&P 500 winning streak, defying both seasonal statistical odds and an ongoing parade of macro headwinds. October’s finale was marked by resilience: the S&P 500 quietly logged yet another all-time high and closed out the month with another monthly gain—just as prevailing quant studies warned that should SPX retreat under 6791 by November 3rd, you should’ve remained a buyer! 👇
How did Finom Group members know to buy yesterdays market retreat down to $SPX 6766 with an opportunity back over 6791 at least?
Quantitatively speaking, that's what our analysis showed as the highest probability outcome, 6,791+.
Subscribe; that was EASY MONEY, not luck!$SPY… pic.twitter.com/KQUBfJKe1k
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 5, 2025
What’s commanding attention now? Not central bank policy alone, but how the market continues to dictate terms. The much-anticipated FOMC move lowered rates by 25bps, but equity price action and earnings strength have overridden the signal of the rising 10-year yield—which, once again, has little correlation to forward returns. Instead, robust double-digit earnings growth and a series of upside surprises have driven multiples to levelss not seen since COVID, while even headline disappointments in Mega Cap tech (Meta, Microsoft, Netflix) were offset by stellar showings from names like Amazon, which gapped higher with historic magnitude.
Beneath the bullish exterior, however, fragility is building. Breadth and momentum have been deteriorating under the surface; technical warnings like persistent bearish divergences, a fresh Hindenburg Omen, and increasingly high readings in the High-Low Logic indices spotlight a narrowing leadership and an increasing risk profile. These are not timing tools for imminent correction, but they do remind investors that any exogenous shock—whether from heightened IEEPA tariff talk, persistent labor slowdown, or another unexpected, inflationary fiscal policy twist—could quickly unravel the consensus and trigger deeper volatility, to the downside just as much as the upside.
It’s the sequencing and weighing of data that matter most: economic expansion continues without recessionary signals, as the post-WWII Zweig Breadth Thrust remains undefeated in forecasting continued expansion cycles. Claims data and real consumer spending hold steady, even as job gains slow and policy drama lingers. Most investor mistakes come from misreading these signals, or by acting on narrative hype instead of disciplined process.
As always, seasonality sets the stage. November kicks off the “best six months” for equities, with historic quants from Wayne Whaley highlighted high-probability upside which was recently achieved on Monday ✅, especially now that hedge funds which lagged performance are forced to begin chasing risk. The trailing 12-month S&P 500 price trend reinforces this optimism: whenever gains top 10% at October’s close, the follow-through into year-end is nearly universal.
Still, don’t confuse uptrends for invincibility. The healthiest portfolios continue to favor disciplined dip-buying, large-cap growth, and defensive rebalancing as the cycle matures. Time remains the best ally, but only for those who respect market signals, avoid over-leverage, and keep their emotions in check when volatility strikes. If you’re worried about lower prices, chances are you’re stretched too thin. Permabull postures are justified only when backed by quant rigor and sharp cash management.
So as November unfolds, let the market’s tape—not policy rhetoric or yield curve noise—lead your investment process. The backdrop remains “probably bullish, possibly bearish,” but for the data-minded, disciplined investor, the probabilities continue to favor higher prices as 2025 draws to a close.
CHART(S) OF THE WEEK
🏆 TODAY’S CHART OF THE WEEK WAS SHARED BY SETH GOLDEN (@SETHCL):
If it is a bubble 🫧, it's the cheapest one in history.
Forward EPS today is less than 1/2 of the Dotcom bubble
The bigger risk may be in cap-weight concentration, not valuation, even as history is actually favorable for concentration.$SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NDX $META $AAPL… pic.twitter.com/gbsY8KcFfg
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 30, 2025
🏆 CHART OF THE WEEK: The Concentration Paradox—Earnings Fueling Fragility
The convergence of recent market data reveals a crucial market dynamic: the S&P 500 rally is powerfully underpinned by robust, accelerating corporate earnings, yet this success has created an unprecedented, structural concentration risk. The current market environment demands that investors respect the fundamentals while actively managing the index’s reliance on a select few stocks.
1. Fundamentals: The Unquestionable Engine of the Rally
The data decisively argues against a speculative bubble, confirming the current bull run is fundamentally justified by corporate profits.
Record Earnings Beats: The frequency of S&P 500 earnings “Beats” (roughly 64%) is near historical peaks, demonstrating that companies are consistently outperforming conservative consensus estimates. This widespread success provides a strong foundation for current equity valuations.
Accelerating Momentum: The estimated Q3 2025 EPS growth rate has surged from 7.3% to over 10.7% year-over-year. This upward revision during the reporting period signals strong, deepening momentum, supporting the thesis that the market is rising due to EPS growth, not merely P/E multiple expansion.
"…only halfway through the quarterly earnings schedule. We think it safe to assume that before the earnings season concludes, Q3 2025 $SPX EPS will have grown closer to 14% Y/Y" ~Seth Marcus
And this week's upward revision has come well ahead of $NVDA $AVGO earnings release https://t.co/WcEzg6H1Lg
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 3, 2025
Valuation Sanity: The Magnificent 7 aggregate forward P/E (23.0) is less than half the multiple of the 2000 Tech Bubble Leaders (52.0). This confirms that, relative to their projected earnings power, today’s leaders are significantly more reasonably priced than their Dot-com predecessors.
2. Structural Risk: Unprecedented Concentration
While the fundamentals are sound, the distribution of this success introduces a critical structural flaw for the broader index.
Extreme Market Weight: The MAG7 now constitutes 32.0% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization. This level of concentration is historically unique and far surpasses the 19.0% peak held by market leaders during the 2000 bubble.
Disproportionate Impact: The index’s performance is disproportionately tied to the sustained success of these seven companies. Their superior earnings are driving the market’s headlines and overall returns, but any localized downturn (e.g., regulatory changes, technology shift, or competitive pressure) affecting this small group would carry an outsized, negative impact on the entire S&P 500 benchmark.
S&P500 earnings surprises are now the highest in history (ex-Covid).
This has been a fundamentally guided bull market, with only a 1% Y/Y multiple expansion.
If the P/E had expanded 2%, $SPX would be 7,200+ presently. Count your blessings bears🧸, on each paw.$ES_F $SPY… pic.twitter.com/47einn6R32
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 3, 2025
Investment Mandate: Manage Success-Driven Risk
The prevailing investment strategy must shift from seeking market entry to managing index fragility through proper sizing and aggressively disciplined cash management skills.
Remain Exposed, Acknowledge Skew: Investors should remain long to capture the confirmed earnings momentum and Q4 seasonal strength. However, they must acknowledge that standard capitalization-weighted index exposure is inherently unbalanced and highly dependent on a single sector. Feature, not a bug! 🐛
Diversification buffers drawdowns, concentration offers outperformance (Think $SPX vs $NDX): Prudent portfolio construction demands mitigating this concentration risk. Strategies such as increasing exposure to S&P 500 Equal-Weight ETFs, diversifying into high-quality ETF’s like CIBR, or selectively allocating to sectors like XLV outside of core technology can help hedge against idiosyncratic MAG7 volatility without abandoning the bullish thesis.
The Key Trade-Off: The market is now defined by a simple trade-off: Fundamentally sound growth versus historically high concentration risk. Discipline requires utilizing the momentum while proactively defending against the structural imbalance.
BONUS:
The S&P 500 was down more than 15% YTD in April, but will likely close up double digits.
2025 will join 1982, 2009, and 2020 as the only other years to do this.
Turns out, slingshots are quite powerful, as the next year has been up double digits every single time. 🐂🎯 pic.twitter.com/lM4zxyajfX
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 3, 2025
There’s a lot of bubble talk out there, but in my view it’s still early days. Below I show my 1998-2000 analog with the valuation of CSCO back then overlaid on the valuation of NVDA today. Those are the then-and-now poster children of the internet and AI booms. As you can see, we… pic.twitter.com/jV5NeUut91
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) November 3, 2025
Worried about Tech concentration in the S&P 500? Yes, Tech makes up 44% of the index. But it also generates 35% of total profits. Its net income to market cap ratio is 2.8%, broadly in line with other sectors. Concentration exists, but so does earnings power. #SP500 $NVDA $META pic.twitter.com/KUreJFaRhQ
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) November 5, 2025
Hindenburg Buster: The signal flashed 5 time when Fed cut rates within 2% of ATHs. Despite noise, 3M $SPX returns were positive in all cases between 3%-9%! Also 100% positive after 12 months. Don’t fight the Fed. Don’t fight the trend.
inspiration: @RyanDetrick @SubuTrade pic.twitter.com/635u4QSHRO— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) October 30, 2025
QUOTE(S) OF THE WEEK
Investing quote of the day via @behaviorgap: pic.twitter.com/QQdUvNV0Pa
— Meb Faber (@MebFaber) October 31, 2025
Everyone needs to hear this… pic.twitter.com/cVU172jnR0
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) November 4, 2025
The smartest people I know aren't the most knowledgeable.
(they have something else entirely)…
They adapt faster than everyone else.
I spent my 20s collecting credentials. Degrees. Finance roles. The "right" path. I thought intelligence meant having all the answers.
Then… pic.twitter.com/jxeCwhyKHx
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) October 30, 2025
The older I get, the more I realize the people you admire are just the ones who had the courage to start. The ones who didn't overthink it. The ones who put their ego aside. The ones who embraced uncertainty. The ones who kept showing up. The answer is found in the action.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) November 5, 2025
Futures are dirty filthy liars
Via @SethCL: “Fact vs. fiction: futures are of the most illiquid markets. To suggest that illiquidity has a reliable price discovery function is less than logical.” $SPX #ES_F $NYA $QQQ $NDX $NQ_F
— Finom Group AYNI Luis Solórzano (@aynirealtor) October 24, 2025
Quote of the Day –
“It would be a mistake to think something is wonderful just because it looks great.” – Anna Wintour— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 3, 2025
As Warren Buffett has always said, “ I have never met a rich economist “
Why then do so many investors listen to them 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/cfhAUD0AgD
— Adam Khoo (@adamkhootrader) November 3, 2025
“Status quo, you know, is Latin for ‘the mess we’re in.’” – Ronald Wilson Reagan
cc: @AdithiaKusno https://t.co/3Kmsc01NDZ
— Finom Group AYNI Luis Solórzano (@aynirealtor) November 1, 2025
What make you valuable is not success but mistake to learn. You remember mistake more. Mistake motivate you to work smarter better not harder. Let your mistake marinate. Jesus was crucified naked. Paul was beheaded. Isaiah was chainsawed. Mistake is success concealed not failure. https://t.co/LktM7GVKFG
— Adithia Kusno ☦️🐂🚀💎🙌🎯 (@AdithiaKusno) November 1, 2025
“Valuation doesnt matter. What matters is whether or not youre anchored to the richest valuation during Dotcom bubble or every other year prior and since. Prior and since it never mattered. Dotcom is the only reason we even discuss P/E. Otherwise, its not a thing!”
~Seth Marcus
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 5, 2025
“What matters most is how well market continues to handle intermittent pullbacks. Thus far, every drawdown has been bought & the sell-offs have been contained. Each setback has resulted in a new bullish pattern being formed, which has kept this uptrend alive.” @FrankCappelleri
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) November 5, 2025
“Since 2002, increases in price-to-book ratios have been matched by comparable increases in return on equity. During the 2000 tech bubble, by contrast, growth valuations surged without any fundamental support.”
— @JanusHenderson— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) November 2, 2025
TOP 10 TWEETS OF THE WEEK
This is an insane chart (not really)
[Link to explanation in replies] https://t.co/SxA0xLMpYq pic.twitter.com/OnkWWuyMMo
— Guy Berger (@EconBerger) November 2, 2025
S&P 500 gapped up +1% to an all-time high
This is the first time since Oct 2024 and 15th time since 2017.
Higher 100% of time 3-months later. January 2026 is gearing up for higher prices.$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $NYA $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT
h/t @optuma pic.twitter.com/YvPWJlFVHF— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 30, 2025
Yesterday had the most 6-month lows in the S&P 500 since April, despite the Index being just 0.004% from an all-time high.$SPX pic.twitter.com/nTMTb35Yyr
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) October 30, 2025
How has $NVDA price moved after hitting market cap milestones?
$1, $2, and $3 trillion each saw price consolidate for a few weeks. Will we see the world's largest company do the same this time too? pic.twitter.com/byEFif3zEO
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) October 30, 2025
121 day streak above 50-DMA is actually 3rd longest streak since 2007. The 2011 streak ended 130 days
Either way, indeed, both streaks would end with at least -20% declines (2011 intraday) thereafter
When we look for excess in markets that ALWAYS mean revert, this is one$SPX… https://t.co/hc6IQSS7T0 pic.twitter.com/mUTXK4XjC0
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 24, 2025
$SPX has been above its 50 dma for 126 consecutive days
This saw the S&P go up 100% of the time 1 month later$SPY pic.twitter.com/1qAokehSNS
— The Market Stats (@TheMarketStats) October 30, 2025
$SPX 's 6 month Rate-of-Change exceeded 22%
This saw $SPX go up 95% of time 6 months later
H/T @RyanDetrick pic.twitter.com/jFoTeqKgDK
— The Market Stats (@TheMarketStats) October 31, 2025
Time in the market beats timing the market. In 2025, #SP500 Buy & Hold outperformed both intraday and overnight strategies. Intraday returns were stronger than overnight, signaling buyers are stepping in during the day. A healthy sign of a bull market #SPY #SPX $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/j3v35REzbT
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) October 30, 2025
#Bitcoin is 10% below its all time high while #SP500 is within 1% of its ATH. Seems bearish for $BTC. But since 2024 this setup occurred 40 times and #BTC made a new ATH after 38 so far. Median drawdown was 15% and median days to new ATH was 53. $IBIT $SPX
Idea: @L1amBellamy pic.twitter.com/rkClCTjQj5— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) October 30, 2025
This is only the 7th time #SP500 stayed above its 100-day moving average from Jun to Oct and made new all-time highs in both September and October. In prior 6 cases, Nov was positive every time, with an average gain of +5.4% and an average max drawdown of just -1.9%. $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/V1MuHJ113e
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) October 31, 2025
November Best Month of the Year for DJIA & S&P 500. November has twelve bullish days based upon S&P 500, with a string of six in a row starting on its first trading day. https://t.co/V4epRoKAbl pic.twitter.com/cvYkfb9JyZ
— Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) October 30, 2025
We are looking at the very best return ever during Sell in May and Go Away (May – Oct).
Up more than 22% right now.
Looking at the top ten Sell in May periods showed the next six months were higher 9 times and up nearly 14% on avg. pic.twitter.com/ATWHE8lLIT
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 31, 2025
Starbucks, Chipotle…
Restaurant Sub-Industry is at it's lowest relative performance to $SPX since Great Financial Crisis.
Some will see a breakdown, some will see a supportive bounce and long-term value opportunity.$SBUX $CMG $CAVA $SPY $QQQ $EATZ @_rob_anderson pic.twitter.com/hKvVpy84Vi
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 31, 2025
MarketWatch: Almost 9% of the S&P 500 saw a 52-week low on Wednesday, sending an “ominous signal” as it’s tough for bull markets to persist when stocks are falling in that way, according to Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG's chief market technician.
“Since 1990 there have only been four… pic.twitter.com/2vJeR1UwGw
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) October 31, 2025
From the archives… pic.twitter.com/PFWf9om468
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) October 31, 2025
Nope…
Finally crossed 100… Sentiment extremes work at lows; at tops, not so much.
Historically $SPX is higher 1 – 2 months forward nearly 75% of occurrences, 3 – 4 months forward ~86% of occurrences.$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $RUT $BTC $AAPL $NVDA
h/t @TheMarketStats… https://t.co/jRA04oNlbE pic.twitter.com/363nwZuCXA— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 31, 2025
The S&P 500's 22.8% gain from May-Oct is the best since 1942. Most sell-in-May studies start in 1950. When $SPX has gained >10% May-Oct, in Nov-Dec it has risen 12/12 times by a median of 6.3%.
Studies with a few cases aren't an investment strategy, but history is clear:… pic.twitter.com/ezVhRsSg0A— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) November 1, 2025
A "POTENTIAL" THIRD CONSECUTIVE S&P DOUBLE DIGIT YEAR
As of the end of October, the S&P is up 16.3% for 2025 and if she is fortunate to hang on to 10% of those gains until year end, it would be the third consecutive year the S&P has posted a double digit gain which gives one… pic.twitter.com/nroBH3US5S
— Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) November 1, 2025
In 2050s 8 largest companies are all Space Exploration and Asteroid Mining Business. Life is arbitrage opportunity. Once you understand the cycle is real your perspective on investing be different. You only invest in things that have relevancy. 1980s it was energy vs 2020s tech. https://t.co/b6J8Nvbp4C
— Adithia Kusno ☦️🐂🚀💎🙌🎯 (@AdithiaKusno) November 1, 2025
Consumer Discretionary seasonal Boom💥💥
9 straight yrs of positive returns November.
Avg. return +5.6%Is Tech leadership reaching an end?
6 straight years of positive returns Nov.
Avg. return has a whopping +7.6%.$AMZN $SPX $XLK $AAPL $SPY $QQQ $NDX $NVDA $SOXX pic.twitter.com/NCwhk0ZNMN— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 2, 2025
Since 1950, the #SP500 has most often bottomed within first 5 trading days of November 29 out of 75 times. In those cases, the average month-to-date drawdown was only -0.1%, showing a strong November wouldn't be unusual. pic.twitter.com/lSNn4g5MDH
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) November 1, 2025
S&P 500 just had a massive 6-month rally of 22.8% (and Oct-Nov supposed to be weak!)
In top 4% of historical 6M returns since 1950 🔥
After 6M rallies of 20%+, median returns 👇
3M later: +3.4%
6M later: +4.8%
12M later: +9.7%Momentum a powerful thing 💪 @CarsonResearch… pic.twitter.com/X09T3xqQgB
— Sonu Varghese (@sonusvarghese) November 3, 2025
This graph has been floating around every couple months, arguing that the top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumption.
Anyone familiar with economic statistics should intuitively feel it must not be right.
So I dug into it a bit, and indeed, it's (mostly) not. https://t.co/wnYpZJ3fcY
— Antoine Levy (@LevyAntoine) November 2, 2025
Food costs finally rolling.
Commodity Cost Index just turned negative, the first sustained dip since 2020. Historically that’s been a tailwind for restaurant margins.
Labor pressures are also easing, with hourly wages flattening after three years of +5–10% Y/Y growth.
Pair… pic.twitter.com/Ep7KjgDnjQ
— Sean D. Emory (@_SeanDavid) November 3, 2025
Midterm years bring bears 🐻 out of hibernation, due to recency bias of 2018 $SPX (-6%) and 2022 (-20%) performances.
I’ll remind you, however, both those Midterm years Fed was hiking rates.
Assuming Fed doesn’t hike 2006, 2010, and 2014 all gained 13%+
Pray 🙏 for hikes… https://t.co/xLlET0Ue8s
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 3, 2025
SPX 3-year analog update – a few folks requested this. pic.twitter.com/NsorxqN9kh
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) November 4, 2025
Leave it to @SubuTrade (sourced via the @dailychartbook nightly email) to put numbers to Ed Yardeni's observation that the SPX is 13% above its 200-DMA.
Historically, consistent with Ed's note, it's meant a short term pullback with negative returns in the next one and two… https://t.co/bhIF5Uezt9 pic.twitter.com/yji43ao8H6
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) November 4, 2025
The best and worst days for the S&P 500 often occur close together. Since 1950, the index’s biggest single-day gain and biggest single-day loss happened within just 10 days of each other 26 times. #SP500 $SPX $SPY #SPX #SPY pic.twitter.com/e3eici66gn
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) November 4, 2025
S&P 500 has closed below the open for 6 consecutive days. This is only the 15th time since 2000. These streaks have often marked inflection points for the #SP500. $SPX follow-through tends to be sharp, up or down. $SPY #SPX pic.twitter.com/MWY87qIyE0
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) November 5, 2025
S&P 500 has finished November in positive territory in 52 of the past 75 years. The average November gain is 1.9%, with an average max drawdown of 3.6%. pic.twitter.com/oRN4tTbNb3
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) November 5, 2025
What each year looked like WHEN $SPX gains >15% thru October.
💰Nov-Dec avg +4.7% and bulls that turn 3
💰Every single one since 1950 saw further gains next 12 months also.$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $NVDA $AAPL $TSLA
h/t @neilksethi pic.twitter.com/YJEvMkfNY9— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 5, 2025
$SPX Is it different this time? pic.twitter.com/alI07Phv6c
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) November 4, 2025
In bull mkts, you buy-the-dip$SPX gapped down over 1% at open yesterday. It's the 18th time since beginning of bull market. 2-month returns were positive 15/17 times after similar gaps, averaging +6.7%.
Very possible this time given Q4 tailwinds.$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $NYA… pic.twitter.com/kP8EChsJ9D
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 5, 2025
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