“I’m comfortable, despite the late year breadth and momentum consolidation underneath the surface of the markets, buying the dips hence forth and given the litany of quant data informing of higher prices by year-end. I can understand that many would not be as comfortable, given certain of the technical charts discussed, but do keep in mind that what is taking place is typical of strong bull markets initially executing a Zweig Breadth Thrust and everything rally to new all-time highs across almost all cap-tier levels and indices. That kind of bull market demands a breather, at least underneath the surface. There’s nothing ominous in the technicals, and just like a recession demands an exogenous/endogenous catalyst, I hold the view that such is the case with this bull market delivering a full 10% correction. Job growth has stalled, Mis are still below 50, yield-curve formerly inverted, Sahm Rule formerly triggered, Fed hiked at the fastest pace in 45 years and no recession. The demand for a catalyst to cause one is no different than what markets need to drive a full 10% or greater correction given the earnings strength and momentum trends. I’m not trying to tempt Mr. Market, but we had this same discussion to end October 2024, still yet without a full 10%+ correction on the year (-9.8%). That 10% correction didn’t come until the threat of severe tariffs in early 2025 ie an exogenous event.”
– SETH GOLDEN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT FINOMGROUP.COM
(CONTRIBUTOR/PREMIUM MEMBERS ONLY)
MID-WEEK SUMMARY
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13TH, 2025
Welcome to Market Mania #19— Riding Highs, Reading Signals: November and The Markets’ Balancing Act
November’s second act arrives with the market grinding higher, yet the narrative feels anything but complacent as we finish today near the 50DMA on both indices down nearly 2% in a single day. Could this be foreshadowing of a larger problem brewing under the surface to come in the future? Certainly, as the S&P 500 sits just below record territory, sustaining its year-to-date rally, closing today up roughly 14% YTD. But this advance is not as monolithic as the index level suggests—beneath headline gains, persistent sector bifurcation, defensive undercurrents, and technical hesitancy are defining the rhythm of this current Q4 phase as midterm year looms and we freshly come out of our longest ever government shutdown. (43 days) Would this be a tailwind? We think so. Just a matter of making time and cheaper prices your friend and “acting on local price weakness with a long term mindset”, as Finom Group Chief Equity Strategist, Seth Golden, often educates.
Earnings continue to provide ballast. The season’s close confirmed outperformance on both EPS and revenue, with the majority of S&P 500 companies beating estimates—even as the magnitude of those surprises now simply matches decade averages. Growth leadership remains firmly anchored by technology and capital-light mega caps, while cyclical breadth remains reluctant to stretch too far. The big surprise has not been the upside, but the resilience in both earnings and the real economy despite nagging policy and macro risks.
Meanwhile, a “friendshoring” wave of foreign direct investment is reshaping America’s industrial core, accelerating the boom in domestic manufacturing, R&D, and AI infrastructure. The result: capex cycles with the potential to boost not only productivity and margins, but also deepen the competitive moat for U.S. corporations. This isn’t bubble-driven exuberance—the volatility index and sentiment surveys reflect restraint, not greed, and valuation premiums are increasingly a story of strong balance sheets and structural earnings power rather than froth. Remember when I last mentioned “Rational Exuberance”? Could it really be, or am I too young, dumb, and naive…certainly could be the case. I like to say that I out-hustle my failures, and do not find concern in the downside risks to the bigger picture which I am frequently envisioning on a much longer time frame than most. Forrest thru the trees, so to speak.
85% of Worries Never Happen.
Fortunately, researches at Cornell University have given us some fascinating insight into worry. They conducted a study that followed people over an extended time and discovered that 85 percent of what people worried about never happened. Does that sound like good news? Wait, don’t answer; there’s more.It gets better.
Of the 15 percent of worries that came to fruition, 79 percent of the time, people handled those problems better than they thought they would. They even reported learning something valuable from the experience. Do the math, and you find that there was nothing to worry about fully 97 percent of the time.Let me reiterate, 97% of the things we worry about either never happen, or we handle them and possibly learn something valuable in the process. Only 3 percent of the time did peoples’ worries prove well-founded. Only, 3%! I get better returns on my stock market investments than I get on my worries — and one of those worries is, ironically, the stock market.
Tariff headwinds have eased, at least for now. The IEEPA saga with China has given way to a tactical détente, temporarily quieting recessionary warnings and lowering the temperature just as the holiday season approaches. Yet, cost pass-through remains a slow burn beneath the consumer surface, a risk not to be ignored should trade winds reverse.
how long before supreme court justices start getting accused of mortgage fraud https://t.co/B0IRqpzPBo
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) November 5, 2025
Seasonality and quant studies remain favorable. The famed “Turn of the Year” setup, along with positive trailing returns through October, keeps the odds stacked for more upside into December—and perhaps a “three-peat” of double-digit stock market gains. Still, the market’s gains are increasingly contested: breadth warnings, defensive rotation, and the shadow of “pullback math” (80%+ odds of a 10% retracement at today’s valuations) demand humility in both position sizing and expectation management.
The message into mid-November: Participation wins, but patience and preparation matter more than ever. Markets rarely melt up without periods of discomfort. If you’re waiting for perfect clarity before deploying risk, you’ll likely miss the most important moves. Ignore the allure of easy analogies to past bubbles; today’s cycle is being steered not by mania, but by capital, innovation, and—most importantly—systematic processes.
Stay disciplined, stay invested, and let data—not headlines—lead your next trade. The market’s relentless uptrend is real, but so is the need to manage cash wisely for what promises to be an eventful close to 2025.
CHART(S) OF THE WEEK
🏆 TODAY’S CHART OF THE WEEK WAS SHARED BY SETH GOLDEN AND JEFF WENIGER (@SethCL and @JeffWeniger):
Collective Free Cash Flow $AAPL, $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $TSLA and $META stopped rising 6qs. ago. Because they have had to ramp up their capital expenditures for AI build-out, their combined annual FCF has fallen from $339bn to $312.6bn
Would take 11yrs before FCF goes negative. I… pic.twitter.com/ej3900V7V4
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 8, 2025
🏆 CHART OF THE WEEK: Earnings Growth Momentum Powers On, but Valuations Demand Vigilance
Start with the Magnificent 7’s free cash flow story—a visual anchor for the “November to Remember” message Seth Golden has been emphasizing. The FCF chart signals a turning point: after years of relentless growth, the tech titans have seen their aggregate free cash flow dip nearly 8% from last year’s peak, a direct result of historic investment in AI, infrastructure, and global capacity expansion. This is not a warning sign but a signature of a different cycle: secular bull markets reach new highs because industry leaders invest ahead of their next growth opportunity, not by hoarding record cash. The era of asset-light margins is shifting as leaders prioritize durable competitive advantages. Even if current trends persist, projections show it would take another decade before FCF goes negative—reinforcing Seth Golden’s view that long-term leadership is built on reinvestment, not retrenchment.
If the recent dip in free cash flow among the Magnificent 7 was truly a fundamental crisis, then “Houston, we have a problem” would be an understatement—yet reality is far less dramatic. Thinking of FCF contraction as a reason to sell now, is like saying that because you previously have won the lottery, you should reinvest in the lottery until you win again, or else you are in trouble?… This comparison mirrors exactly the kind of flawed logic perpetuated by much of the financial media. The truth is, free cash flow for these mega caps has been declining for six quarters, and yet both earnings momentum and leadership have persisted without anything close to system-wide distress. To assume that this kind of spending would continue for a whole decade is simply ignorant of reality.
What really stood out to Finom Group on today’s down move was the lack of meaningful defensive flow: there was no measurable rush into gold, dollars, or Treasuries—reinforcing the interpretation that this was a run-of-the-mill scheduled selling program, not a flight from risk or a market in panic mode. Cash-rich balance sheets and disciplined capital allocation explain how these companies can weather—and strategically choose—a temporary FCF downtrend while reinvesting for long-term returns. Declining FCF in this context is not about the wheels coming off; it’s about funding the future, not cashing out today.
5 of 11 $SPX sectors are reporting double-digit (Y/Y) earnings growth for Q3, led by the Information Technology sector at 27%. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/d0Qf5MKqHR pic.twitter.com/2QUjiWwjWi
— FactSet (@FactSet) November 8, 2025
Shifting to the present earnings landscape, the FactSet chart shows the market’s wall of worry has not slowed down profit momentum. The S&P 500’s Q3 earnings growth rate stands at 13.1%—up from 10.7% a week ago and just 7.9% the day the quarter closed. This is the “November to Remember” in action: robust earnings upside, powered by constant bottom-up estimate revisions and led by sectors like technology, financials, utilities, and materials. Communication services and energy remain weaker, but the earnings expansion story is undeniable for the core pillars of the index.
Nowhere does this optimism meet more tension than in valuations. The S&P 500 forward P/E at 22.7 is well above historic averages—a key risk (for bears…😉) highlighted by both Finom Group research and market voices like Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel. Yet, this premium is not like dot-com era speculation; leverage across households and corporates is low, balance sheets are strong, and rising multiples reflect a world awash in certainty and forward cash flow—not systemic excess. In fact, valuations for the Magnificent 7 are near five-year averages, while elevated premiums have crept into the broader S&P 493. As Emanuel notes, this dispersion actually offers a backstop to any short-term mega-cap weakness as the bull market advances toward targets approaching 7,750 by 2026.
Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel: Weakest Bubble Ever
"… valuations for MAG-7 actually hover near 5-yr avg, in contrast to S&P493 which has seen NTM PE near record highs… that could provide a backstop to any potential interim MAG-7 weakness on the way to 7,750 in 2026"$SPX… pic.twitter.com/HVx0pY34y7
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 13, 2025
"3 pitfalls that can lead to financial ruin, even for intelligent and successful people… Ladies, Liquor and Leverage."
~ Charlie Munger
Average U.S. Household long-since got the message. Lowest leverage in almost… EVER!
Unfortunately, liquor and ladies… #economy pic.twitter.com/7gFqjKIkSv
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 11, 2025
Seth Golden’s “November to Remember” framework blends these cycle realities: structurally sound consumer and corporate balance sheets, non-restrictive monetary policy (so long as the Fed isn’t actively tightening), and a string of positive earnings revisions with low bars across sentiment, housing, and manufacturing all setting up easier comps into 2026. Recession risk, if realized, is likely to be shallow and short. Fiscal tailwinds, BBB rebate expansions, and supportive household policy mean consumers will have extra cash entering Q1 tax season—a structural buffer underpinning spending and retail sales growth.
The key for investors: this is a market at a pivotal crossroads where strong fundamentals and disciplined growth leadership keep the uptrend alive, but where it is essential to marry bullish conviction with proactive, “agressively-disciplined”, SAVVY cash management system. High valuations aren’t inherently dangerous—they are simply pricing greater certainty and improved macro stability. The trend is your friend, but heed Seth Golden’s timeless reminder: don’t fall in love with the trend itself. Set low bars, keep vigilant for risks, and let the secular story carry you—anchored by real data and historically resilient fundamentals.
BONUS:
Stocks are going up and to the right
And so are earnings and margins, driving returns 👇 https://t.co/rZ9sAXdVxl pic.twitter.com/ixiHDoNSCk
— Sonu Varghese (@sonusvarghese) November 11, 2025
From the @FT: “US companies’ earnings are growing at the fastest pace in four years…
Median earnings growth year-on-year across the Russell 3000 index — a benchmark for the entire US stock market — hit 11 per cent in the third quarter, up from 6 per cent in the previous three… pic.twitter.com/zFTKGbpVtg— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) November 8, 2025
This study is the answer, undeniably informs $SPX not likely to avoid a -10%+ drawdown in 1H 2026
Look at MAX Drawdown median column/row. "But I never heard of the HLL Index and you're the only one posting about it"… that's ALPHA.
Remember how I forecast the 2022 bear market… https://t.co/VSliDaTEbD pic.twitter.com/YJpKW9zlm2
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 12, 2025
And it’s not just the Mag 7. Stop it. pic.twitter.com/kucL1Teq93
— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) November 13, 2025
Hedging at ABSOLUTE WRONG TIME…🤯 Equity P/C Ratio jumps above 90 in a single day. Nail🔨 meet coffin ⚰️Reading above 90 has marked $SPX low over last 18, and within days of correction/pullback low every. single. time since 2022 bear market.$SPY $ES_F $QQQ $IWM $NYA $AAPL… pic.twitter.com/1Efj7OfO12
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 10, 2025
the US is pretty exceptional pic.twitter.com/ibZOppI3rF
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) November 9, 2025
This was an awesomely informative, quantitative piece of analytics from @Bluekurtic and played out to the day last Friday as $SPX $SPY bottomed on Day 5. You should be following him on X, and his works can also be followed via the https://t.co/RfhuhKho7v community.$NDX $QQQ… https://t.co/a5cEZRuGzG
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 11, 2025
QUOTE(S) OF THE WEEK
“It can be very expensive to try to convince the markets you are right.”
Another Ed
— Ed Bradford (@Fullcarry) October 2, 2024
Quote of the Day –
“We must go on, because we can't turn back.” – Robert Louis Stevenson— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 13, 2025
Investing quote of the day: pic.twitter.com/85loYWPn1s
— Meb Faber (@MebFaber) November 13, 2025
Via @SethCL:
At best, 40% of your trades are winners.
80% of your profits come from those 40% winners.
That means those 60% losers should be much smaller; that’s why you must cut losses.
It’s okay to have a lot of losses; just keep them small. (UNTIL YOU BELIEVE IT AND IT… https://t.co/iQKEi1R338
— Finom Group AYNI Luis Solórzano (@aynirealtor) February 7, 2025
Uncertainty about the future is a constancy. What changes isn’t the level of uncertainty, but level of people’s complacency.
President Clinton's State of the Union January 2000, before Dotcom bubble burst, 9/11, and 2001 recession
h/t @morganhousel pic.twitter.com/HNKc2ymTy2
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) May 27, 2022
"Being Right or Making Money"
Those that have clung to a strategy of questioning every market high because of this or that havent made much💰. Staying convinced that you're right when #SPX is telling you differently is a recipe for investing disaster. Dont let ego usurp trend
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) August 8, 2021
Anybody remember that big down day? 👇👇
This is how we keep our eye 👁️ on the big picture and take advantage of local price weakness with long-term perspective at https://t.co/d1ZOQBnh3d! https://t.co/IaelJWEhMC
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 14, 2024
What you do with what you know is more important than just what you know. Investing is the same way!
Emotional Quotient (EQ) over Intellectual Quotient (IQ)$SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA #investingtips
by Morgan Housel pic.twitter.com/Qk640Kusj6
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) July 25, 2024
You will never be perfect, but you can always be better. -WB🐐 https://t.co/r43Yt4eZtj
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) November 10, 2025
Everyone needs to remember this… pic.twitter.com/UFRBmvIfJT
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) November 8, 2025
In Terminator 3, when Skynet was activated, one of the lab personnel stated:
“Skynet is operating at 60 teraflops”
Which is less than the power of one RTX 4090 (82.6 TFLOPS) pic.twitter.com/S7Sk8gI7Gm
— Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann) November 9, 2025
TOP 10 TWEETS OF THE WEEK
Also, it is NOT unusual to see a choppy market up until Nov OPEX (next week). This probably due to repositioning from these poor momentum factor returns. ⤵️ https://t.co/SWsGfIKK3p pic.twitter.com/aAyODGmSD2
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) November 13, 2025
You can always find these examples if you look, but boy this one is something. https://t.co/lCgYIT0qaG
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 13, 2025
#Bitcoin despite popular belief is NOT digital #Gold
If it is not digital gold it is a risk asset. Because it is NOT digital Gold one might also question its utility as a store of value, again despite popular belief of an asset in its infancy, where many lay claim to… pic.twitter.com/vAenvK5TnQ
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 8, 2025
Average isn't so average when it comes to investing.
Only four times the past 75 years has the S&P 500 gained between 8-10% (so about avg). pic.twitter.com/DCNegBtTak
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 9, 2025
$ABNB , @aynirealtor nah, believe Wall Street and sell all your shares before the stock rises 1000 percent ‘ten bags’!,… https://t.co/GXVEdZ9YUb
— David H (@JIMROInvest) November 10, 2025
Wake me up when tech rolls over. pic.twitter.com/RG45Xg2XKW
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) November 7, 2025
In bubbles, companies rush to take advantage of frothy conditions.
We just arent seeing that? https://t.co/zTcDadh4vq
— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) November 10, 2025
Nasdaq 100 gained over 50% in 7 months. After similar moves, average 12-month drawdown was 27%, and average stock market drop from breakout date was 18%. But if one excludes dot com, drawdowns were less severe and 12M returns were always positive. $SPY $META $NVDA $TSLA #Economy pic.twitter.com/UPWVMcZds8
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) November 10, 2025
This is only 7th time the S&P 500 has stayed within 5% of its all-time high for 120+ days while RSI remained above 40. In the prior 6 cases, stock market was higher 3 months later 100% of the time. Over those 3 months, the average max loss was 1.5% with a 3.9% drawdown. $SPY pic.twitter.com/aYueJxvT4p
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) November 13, 2025
BTC and IBIT both at interesting place technically. Bitcoin is at the prior summer low and $IBIT is at its 1-year average, also where bulls stepped in back in April. pic.twitter.com/dadVClLH1s
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) November 5, 2025
On Friday, $SPX snapped its 137 day streak without 2 consecutive RSI closes below 50
Strong momentum is weakening? $SPX was up 100% of the time 9 months later, after these 100+ day streaks ended
H/T @DualityResearch pic.twitter.com/ZsaaYsDwkI
— The Market Stats (@TheMarketStats) November 10, 2025
Last week the market achieved something last seen in 1999: the S&P 500 beat the S&P 500 Quality index by 11.5% over the prior six months. When this happened 26 years ago, the snapback was violent. pic.twitter.com/kCjtVo2xFt
— Jeff Weniger (@JeffWeniger) November 11, 2025
One of my charts of the year is the average effective tariff rate via @bespokeinvest
But not for the usual reason 👇
Avg effective tariff rate ~ 11%, which was about the best case scenario pre-Liberation day (was ~ 2-3% in Jan).
Tells you about all the exemptions and… pic.twitter.com/fJGiHVAYiW
— Sonu Varghese (@sonusvarghese) November 1, 2025
Technology has been on a massive tear higher relative to the energy sector. But the slope of the relative trend is getting steep.
Not there yet but watching for when it begins to make a lower high, similar to 2000 and 2021 to suggest a reversal is taking shape. pic.twitter.com/Z1aBu8dhxS— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) November 11, 2025
A slowdown in the mention of slowdowns in earnings calls: pic.twitter.com/493t76l9mw
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) November 11, 2025
Where it may have proven popular to put a graphic of a falling knife when I was ADDING 1% for every -1% lower in $SPX $SPY back in Mar/April, is unfortunately the opportunity most denied themselves $QQQ
How you perceive investing opportunity reflects in behavior/performance. https://t.co/44XaOrXXid
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 11, 2025
The six-month stretch from Nov-Apr has proven an exceptionally profitable time for stocks. Historically, $SPX Equal-Weighted index returned an impressive +19.5% annualized from Nov-Apr versus a modest +4.1% from May-Oct. (Data 12/31/88 thru10/31/25) #InvestSmart #StockMarket pic.twitter.com/XcdkN1zgG2
— The Leuthold Group (@LeutholdGroup) November 11, 2025
Post-election years tend to favor year-end rally for the stock market. Whether under Democrats or Republicans, the S&P 500 has never ended November–December negative in the past seven post-election years and only once in the last twelve.#SP500 $SPX $SPY $META $NVDA pic.twitter.com/S1IoE1UTaY
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) November 12, 2025
Top 5 things that ruined investors mentality and cost people untold millions in the stock market.
⁰1. The Big Short
2. Zero Hedge
3. Pessimistic Gurus
4. Broad legalization of gambling (changed their mindset)
5. The Politicization of economic data— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) November 11, 2025
Purchase application data update:
+6% week to week
+31% year over year
Since rates fell below 6.64% and headed down toward 6%, this is the 3rd time since late 2022 that the forward-looking housing data has shown an improvement. Unlike last year, rates didn't spike above 7% pic.twitter.com/AikQiFVnEI— Logan Mohtashami (@LoganMohtashami) November 12, 2025
Medical devices primed to join the healthcare party pic.twitter.com/zoXPffDjGp
— Scott Brown, CMT (@scottcharts) November 12, 2025
What Eric is talking about https://t.co/fh7tE4PcnT pic.twitter.com/XItDhcz2CI
— Logan Mohtashami (@LoganMohtashami) November 12, 2025
The Fed has recently eased much more preemptively compared to the 2000 dotcom calamity making today's probable outcome far less damaging. See my latest report on why the current tech-led bull may be resolved by a leadership shift rather than a collapse. https://t.co/cmZvbGr0eN pic.twitter.com/Fkiz9WPxJ9
— Jim Paulsen (@jimwpaulsen) November 13, 2025
Health Care sector $XLV is the most overbought it has been in more than 2 years.
Closed more than $2 above Upper Bollinger Band
Closed with 14-day RSI 82
Closed with 8-day win streakHigh probability profit taking near-term with price consolidation proving opportunity!$SPX… pic.twitter.com/hgqUUnSU7V
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 13, 2025
We're just going to ignore the Challenger Grey hiring announcements and focus on the layoffs. Do I got that right?
No bias in the financial media? Nothing to see here?
283,138 hiring plans in October 2025, the most since September 2024.#economy #Jobs #Unemployment pic.twitter.com/QuGE8ixnL8— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 13, 2025
$NDX $QQQ posted its largest weekly drop (-3.1) last week since Liberation Day week. Only 13 such weekly declines over trailing 3 years.
Every. Single. Time. Nasdaq was higher 60-trading days forward.
Average return = +12.7%$SPX $SPY $COMPQ $NYA $AAPL $NVDA $META
(via… pic.twitter.com/hbolYBxgo2— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 11, 2025
JOIN THE FINOM GROUP FAMILY – CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE NOW!
Master the markets with Seth Golden and our “Finominals” community! For just $24.99/month, unlock weekly 5000+ word macro research reports packed with charts and actionable insights. Go Premium at $79.99/month for daily Telegram Traders Corner, myth-busting Zoom sessions, and live 1%+ scalp/swing trading with Seth. Don’t let market noise win—join our Contributor or Premium Membership to build confidence and achieve your financial goals.
[Click here for a free Morning Market Setup sample from November 10th 2025!]
FINOM GROUP – RECENT REPORTS
NOVEMBER 9, 2025
NOVEMBER 2, 2025
OCTOBER 26, 2025
OCTOBER 19, 2025
OCTOBER 12, 2025
YOU’RE ALL CAUGHT UP NOW. THANKS FOR READING!
If you have any questions, feel free to message Seth Golden or contact us support@finomgroup.com
Comment below or tag us on X (@FinXWeekly) with your thoughts—your feedback drives our innovation.
