“Investors are funny creatures!
Amazes me how #investors are anxious to buy when market is green & scared to buy when market is red.
What’s even funnier is investors will hedge in an uptrend, afraid of rising prices!
2 worst times to buy; price going up, price going down.”
– SETH GOLDEN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT FINOMGROUP.COM
(CONTRIBUTOR/PREMIUM MEMBERS ONLY)
MID-WEEK SUMMARY
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 26TH, 2025
📰 Market Mania #21 — The Dual Thrust & The Golden Window 🏃♂️💨
If the volatility of the last two weeks felt like a test of nerves, the market just handed you the answer key. Following a period of “economic malaise” and technical consolidation that we flagged as “normal and to-be-expected,” the S&P 500 has staged a ferocious reversal. We are no longer just looking to confirm a bottom; we are tracking the mechanics of a launch 🚀. As of today, we are witnessing improving breadth via rotation into Equal-weight (RSP) S&P 500 as well as a technically impressive move under the hood with a +2 STDEV 3-day Rate of Change (ROC) incline on SPX, the highest since May.
While the market’s recent surge has been fueled by strong breadth and favorable technicals, the bigger picture is defined by a crucial theme from our latest report: “Nearing The End of 2025: A Rebalancing of Trends”.
As we head into the final stretch of the year, investors are navigating a “Finish Line Ahead” environment. The volatility we’ve endured wasn’t a signal to flee, but a prompt to execute a time-tested discipline: rebalancing portfolios/cash levels to better reflect your own goals as a trader/investor and the shifting leadership between the “Magnificent 7” and the rest of the market as we head into the typically murky, and dreaded Midterm election year… the worst 😱 of the 4-year presidential cycle, averaging a -17.5% drawdown – almost a technical bear 🐻 market!
The Rare “Dual ZBT” Signal
We are currently tracking a potential Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) up leg, pending final confirmation by December 5th. This is not just any signal; it would mark a rare “Dual ZBT” event—meaning 2 such thrusts occurring in close proximity. Historically, we have only seen this specific dual setup twice before: 1962 and 2023. In both instances, the forward returns were even stronger than the already-bullish single ZBT averages, and of course, minimal drawdowns.
Mechanics of the Bottom: How We Got Here
This rally didn’t happen in a vacuum. It was born from a classic “washout” that cleared the decks for new leadership:
The Semiconductor Reset: Prior to the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings beat, the semi sector (SMH) was stretched to its limit with only 4 stocks trading above their 20-week EMA. This “rubber band” effect created the potential energy for the snap-back we are seeing now.
The “Fake Out”: The S&P 500’s dip below its 50-DMA scared many, but history shows this is usually a trap. On average, the index reclaims this level in just 8 days with negligible further downside.
The VIX “Dinner Bell”: While the crowd treated the recent VIX spike as a fire alarm, our data flagged it as a buying opportunity. When volatility accelerates this fast, it often marks a capitulation low—a signal that has been perfect in every bull market since 1990.
Entering the “Golden Window” of Flows
We have now officially crossed the threshold into the single most robust window for equity fund flows on the calendar.
The Holiday Quant: We have entered one of the most historically reliable windows for equity gains. According to our latest research, in the “last 6 trading days of November and the first 3 of December, the S&P 500 has risen in 24 of the last 26 years”. This isn’t just random noise; moves of 3% or greater during this period have “skewed strongly to upside”. While we are chasing the 6,840 level to keep our “June-Oct > 100DMA” quant perfect, the report reminds us not to be dismayed if we miss that specific number—several other “Turn of the Year” quants remain firmly in play with high positivity rates.
The 17-0 Whaley Barometer: Looking into the New Year, our “Turn of the Year” setup—triggered by strength in May, June, and July—is now active. Historically, this setup has gone 17-0 in the October 27 – January 18 timeframe, delivering an average gain of 7.1%.
📉 The VIX Playbook: Fear is Opportunity
DataTrek’s research in our report breaks down the “VIX Playbook,” reminding us that the VIX is essentially the cost of insuring a portfolio.
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The Buy Signal: History shows that buying the S&P 500 when the VIX closes between 27.3 and 50.8 has a “good track record of delivering solid gains” over the following 1, 3, 6, and 12 months.
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The Reality: We do not see anything on the horizon that would force the VIX into the “danger zone” (above 50.8), meaning recent volatility spikes should be viewed as productive entry points.
🏗️ The Valuation Reality Check (Vs. 2000)
Despite the noise about an “AI Bubble,” Wells Fargo’s analysis in our report provides a stark reality check.
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Not Like 2000: To reach the valuation peaks seen during the Dot-Com bubble, the S&P 500 Information Technology sector would need to roughly double, the top six tech companies would need to triple, and the largest tech company would need to quadruple its P/E multiple.
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The Verdict: The notion that current metrics are on par with 2000 is “demonstrably incorrect”.
🔄 The Great Earnings Rotation
Perhaps the most critical “rebalancing” signal comes from FactSet’s Q3 earnings data.
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The Mag 7 Slowdown: The “Magnificent 7” reported actual earnings growth of 18.4%, their lowest growth rate since Q1 2023.
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The “Other 493” Rise: Meanwhile, the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 reported earnings growth of 11.9%, marking only the second time in three years they have hit double-digit growth.
The Finish Line: To keep our “June-Oct trend quant” perfect, the S&P 500 needs to close above 6,840 on November 30th 😬. The “Market Winds” have shifted into a “Rebalancing of Trends.” The broadening of earnings growth, combined with favorable holiday seasonality and compelling valuation support compared to historical bubbles, suggests the finish line for 2025 is not just a stopping point, but a launchpad. With the “Dual Thrust” momentum at our back and seasonal tailwinds kicking in, that target is back in sight.
The winds have shifted. The headwinds are fading, and the tailwinds are howling. Hang in there—the data says the finish line is ahead.
📈 CHART(S) OF THE WEEK - Fundamentals Don't Lie 🤥
🏆 THIS WEEK’S CHARTS OF THE WEEK WERE SHARED BY SETH GOLDEN (@SethCL):
This week, we are cutting through the noise and letting the hard data do the talking. While the financial media chases shadows of a slowdown or a bubble, the actual numbers tell a story of broad-based strength, or as I like to call it… “Rational Exuberance”. Seth Golden puts it perfectly, “Fundamentals don’t lie, they are the truth-sayer of future EPS growth”.
Here is what the data from FactSet, Morgan Stanley, and Yardeni Research is signaling right now across five key charts:
1. The Growth Engine is Accelerating (Not Stalling)
9 quarters of accelerating revenue growth, which doesn't appear to be ending in 2025.
Didn't hear anything during Q3 earnings season to suggest a deceleration on the horizon.
Fundamentals don't lie, they are the truth-sayer of future EPS growth.$SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $AAPL… pic.twitter.com/15dZCvj6AL
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 25, 2025
According to FactSet, we aren’t just growing; we are accelerating. The S&P 500 has now logged 9 consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue growth, ramping up from a low of just +0.9% in Q2 2023 to a robust +8.4% today. Seth notes that the Q3 earnings season offered zero evidence of a deceleration on the horizon, suggesting this engine has plenty of fuel left for 2025.
2. The “Holy Bejebus!” Moment
Holy Bejebus!
Median Stock EPS growth, so not just MAG-7, not just Tech, not just large-caps, is trending and at the best level since 2021.
Have limb, will go out on and suggest this doesn't end in Q3, but continues into Q1 2026 (barring exogeny). $SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM… pic.twitter.com/xk4ma3kIJf
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 25, 2025
It’s not just the heavy hitters doing the pulling. Morgan Stanley Research highlights a critical breakout in the Russell 3000. The median stock in this broad index just hit 8% EPS growth in Q3—the best level since 2021. This confirms that the recovery has widened far beyond the “Mag-7” and Big Tech; the typical stock is now participating in the uptrend. But tell me more about the defensive rotation in healthcare and utilities please! Sounds scary 👻 right?
3. The “Bubble” Narrative is Offsides
If asset bubbles are characterized by outrageous valuation expansion, why is the P/E multiple down Y/Y?
Just askin', how offsides is the Wall Street narrative? But it's my first day, excuse the elementary question. $SPX $ES_F $NVDA $AAPL $MSFT $TSLA $QQQ $SOXX $BTC $VIX pic.twitter.com/Gu9FJRgII3
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 24, 2025
If we are in a bubble characterized by “outrageous valuation expansion,” someone forgot to tell the P/E ratio. Data from FactSet shows that the S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E ratio is actually down year-over-year, currently sitting around 21.5x. This contraction contradicts the euphoria narrative; valuations are currently digesting the massive gains in price through even stronger earnings growth.
4. The 91% Win Rate
When $SPX EPS growth is growing double-digits and Fed Fund Rate is down Y/Y, P/E multiple has expanded 91% of the time.
P/E is currently negative Y/Y (21.5X) in 2025 folks! Suggests back to all-time highs by year-end.$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NVDA $RUT $AAPL $BTC $TSLA pic.twitter.com/bpdsdD1X1p
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 24, 2025
History is offering a compelling probability signal. According to data from FactSet and Morgan Stanley, when the S&P 500 experiences double-digit EPS growth alongside a year-over-year drop in the Fed Funds Rate (accommodative policy), valuation multiples expand 91% of the time. With the P/E currently negative year-over-year, the odds overwhelmingly favor valuation expansion from here, which suggests the market could drive back to all-time highs by year-end.
5. Crossing the 80% Threshold
Percent of $SPX companies w/POSITIVE 12-mon change in forward revenues has inflected above 80 threshold.
Historically, bull markets do NOT end with such fundamentals (ex-Dotcom)$SPY $QQQ $NYA $RUT $NDX $IWV $VOO $SMH pic.twitter.com/2pt2WZMvNq
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 25, 2025
Finally, Yardeni Research shows that the percentage of S&P 500 companies with positive 12-month forward revenue estimates has inflected above the critical 80% threshold (hitting 81.5% as of Nov 21). Historically, bull markets simply do not end when fundamentals are this robust—this level of broad revenue strength is typically seen in the middle of a cycle, not the end.
🏁 The Bottom Line: The Plane is on the Runway
Think of the stock market right now like a jumbo jet on the runway. The passengers (retail investors) might be nervous because of a little turbulence (volatility) and scary announcements from the cabin crew (financial media headlines).
But look at the instruments in the cockpit:
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Thrust is increasing: Revenue growth has accelerated for 9 straight quarters.
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All engines are firing: Growth isn’t just coming from the “Mag 7” engines anymore; the median stock (Russell 3000) is powering up.
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The load is lighter: Valuations (P/E) have actually compressed, meaning the plane isn’t too heavy to fly.
While the passengers worry about a crash, the physics of flight (fundamentals) say we are cleared for takeoff. The data suggests we aren’t stalling out; we are just throttling up for the next leg of the journey.
BONUS:
How disconnected is Wall Street and Financial media?
It is astonishing to think that from today’s elevated levels, valuations would need to 2X for Tech sector, 3X for the top 6 Tech companies, and 4X for THE largest Tech company to reach Dotcom peak P/E multiples.$SPX $ES_F… pic.twitter.com/Rn9sfw6kle
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 23, 2025
Index-level revenue growth has been accelerating since its Q2 2023 lows of +0.9%, coming in at +8.4% in Q3. While not back to the late Pandemic Era growth of +11.0% in 2022, the most recent quarter is the best comp since Q3 2022 (+11.0%).
— Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) (@DataTrekMB) November 24, 2025
🇺🇸 EPS
Wall Street is leaning bullish on 2026 earnings, calling for a 14% jump in S&P 500 earnings, while small caps could deliver the year's biggest surprise with projections nearing 50%
👉 https://t.co/blMxcoG7WG@GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #EPS #earnings $rut $qqq pic.twitter.com/T3yyLTyJk6— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) November 25, 2025
QUOTE(S) OF THE WEEK
“Contrarian investing is way overrated. It is intellectual cool to not be with the crowd but the crowd makes money 80% of the time." – Stanley Druckenmiller pic.twitter.com/2Nj7OLzAM5
— Steve Burns (@SJosephBurns) November 21, 2025
"AN AI BUBBLE UNLIKELY WITHIN THREE YEARS."
— Eddie Wu, Alibaba $BABA CEO during earnings call pic.twitter.com/rjL56sx5Og— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) November 25, 2025
Quote of the Day –
“You have put me in here a cub, but I will come out roaring like a lion, and I will make all hell howl!” – Carrie Nation— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 25, 2025
Investing quote of the day: pic.twitter.com/OYPnUsu8OU
— Meb Faber (@MebFaber) November 25, 2025
Pessimistic
Suboptimal
Reasonable
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) June 30, 2022
1. Appropriate behavior
2. Appropriate expectations
3. Appropriate positioning
H/T @SethCL
— Finom Group AYNI Luis Solórzano (@aynirealtor) November 12, 2025
The people you hangout with play with your energy field 😳 pic.twitter.com/gmOl3QLKhM
— Mindset Machine (@Mindset_Machine) November 24, 2025
97% of problems in your life come from this: pic.twitter.com/snZXWMDkZY
— Mindset Machine (@Mindset_Machine) November 24, 2025
TOP 10 TWEETS OF THE WEEK
I don't know if I'd be in the business of suggesting Friday nothing more than a "dead cat bounce" when Small-caps $RUT $IWM demonstrated outperformance and the most 1-day volume in 4 years (up day).
Capitulation not always a down volume event!$SPX $RTY $SPY $QQQ $NDX $DIA… pic.twitter.com/1sVOhXKasa
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 23, 2025
From worst, to 1st!
Health Care achieved a 52-week high Friday
Health Care is now outperforming $SPX last 6 monthsThe opportunity was outlined after recognizing oversold conditions and a market flush (volume) in August. $XLV $SPY $IBB $LLY $UNH $PFE $AMFN $BIIB $MRNA $MRK https://t.co/MFpf6sFXEH pic.twitter.com/mKoockyL2L
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 23, 2025
First major test of support this past week, and so far a successful test.
Arrows indicate successful tests at 20-WMA are frequent during bull market cycle. This past week tested and closed above.
Combined with seasonal tailwinds…$SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $AAPL $NVDA $MSFT… pic.twitter.com/JOX4dkctpw
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 22, 2025
Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index has hit deeply oversold sentiment level and already bounced, despite $NDX $QQQ still diving. This bullish divergence could be harbinger of future bounce in Nasdaq/Growth/Tech.$SPX $SPY $COMPQ $META $AMZN $NVDA $AAPL pic.twitter.com/OQ420jAyfH
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 21, 2025
Summation Index typically dips in Q4 before rallying sharply into New Year.
Only 2024 did it not do so, in post-Covid era. If the market is to rally hence forth, the breadth of momentum will have to express the typical rally starting this coming week. Non-negotiable!$SPX… pic.twitter.com/8hPGMBRF8m
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 24, 2025
The leading sector/industry components of S&P500 $SPX were not able to find support at the October lows.
This will prove more concerning for the overall market if Tech and Semis can't turn up near-term. $ES_F $SPY $XLK $SMH $SOXX $QQQ $NVDA $AAPL pic.twitter.com/jVW57JR809
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 24, 2025
The Magnificent 7 are making $1.1 million in profits every 60 seconds.
The world has never seen businesses this robust. Comparing AI to the dot-com bubble is intellectually lazy. pic.twitter.com/Nplx27UYhV
— Phil Rosen (@philrosenn) November 21, 2025
Here's a look at the Nasdaq 100's rolling 5-year percentage change, which peaked just below 1,000% in early 2000 at the peak of the Dot Com Bubble.
Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/bPsUu61sA0
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 21, 2025
1999 -2000 Peak = +112% gain
March 2020 – March 2021 gain = +95%November 2024 to November 2025 gain = +17%
Worst bubble ever!… or not a bubble at all!$NDX $COMPQ $QQQ $TQQQ $SPX $SPY $VOO $VIX pic.twitter.com/0WbGWscYEK
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 21, 2025
Goldman's Vol Panic Index is back near highs 👀 pic.twitter.com/IT4JuRtM8n
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) November 21, 2025
Bitcoin has on average been in a 32% drawdown over the last five years. It's currently right at that average. pic.twitter.com/R6Gb3jf7tq
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 21, 2025
🇺🇸Margin Debt
While margin debt has been rising, its share of total US market value still sits at manageable levels. That keeps leverage risks in check and suggests investors could take on more borrowing if equities keep their momentum
👉https://t.co/blMxcoG7WG@dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/J1qtvMGHk1— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) November 20, 2025
The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF $RSP saw record volume today!
This is after we saw a huge spike in $SPY volume yesterday.
🤔 https://t.co/5Us7Ff2WNr pic.twitter.com/soAaCW1AF4
— Subu Trade (@SubuTrade) November 21, 2025
A reliable seasonal window is approaching.
Late November and early December have delivered steady gains for decades.• The period covers the last six trading days of November and the first three of December
• The S&P 500 has risen in twenty four of the last twenty six years
•… pic.twitter.com/NhGtkfn7EW— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) November 21, 2025
When they tell you High Yield Credit Spreads are a leading indicator, remind them of the chart.
Asian/Russia Debt Crisis, Great Financial Crisis, Covid, or 2022 Inflation Crisis, there was NO forewarning by High Yield Credit Spreads.
What Wall Street tells you vs. reality!… pic.twitter.com/R4m1Pec8dA
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 22, 2025
IF NOVEMBER WERE TO BREAK A FIVE MONTH S&P WINNING STREAK
With four trading days remaining in the month, the S&P is down 3.47% for November.
Hopefully the S&P will post a rip your face off Thanksgiving rally next week and avoid a negative November, but should the more likely… pic.twitter.com/rRu0JnjxmN
— Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) November 22, 2025
Current weakness in S&P 500 isn’t unusual. The market is closely tracking the average price path after past Zweig Breadth Thrust signals. The latest ZBT on 4/24/2025 shows similar seasonality, and it suggests the Q4 rally can resume soon. Excellent observation by @aynirealtor. pic.twitter.com/r40xLzOYMI
— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) November 23, 2025
WSJ analyzed 5,000 earnings calls: CEOs are FAR LESS negative on tariffs than earlier this year. Actual tariff rates paid (approx. 12%) are well below headline figures, new trade deals are easing pressure, & many firms are mitigating costs via pricing & supply-chain shifts. pic.twitter.com/jMs4RJp5Cz
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) November 24, 2025
Citadel's Rubner:
NVDA Earnings: A Macro Event, Not Just a Stock Story
Heading into the print, NVDA was down 12% from its all-time high — a $630 billion market-cap drawdown — with options pricing a ~7% move, implying nearly $315 billion in potential market-cap swing, larger… pic.twitter.com/oRjZNdMmRI
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) November 23, 2025
The $SPX could log its 2nd straight 1% gain today.
Since the April crash low, this has happened 3 other times:
4/11-4/14 – Three days after THE low
4/22-4/24 (3 straight) – right after the mid-April key HIGHER low
6/23-6/24 – right after a short-term sell-off pic.twitter.com/TD0zkeBR1P
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) November 24, 2025
🇺🇸 S&P 500
Goldman Sachs sees the S&P 500 climbing to 6,800 by the end of 2025 and pushing toward 7,600 in 2026, betting on an accommodative Fed and the staying power of big caps
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYp6ph/t @GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #equities #stocks pic.twitter.com/VpKSbPzoEU
— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) November 24, 2025
Feels like ~95% of investment ppl I follow are bearish on AI right now as it pertains to stock market expectations
Is it really gonna be that easy?
Is the market really that dumb?
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) November 25, 2025
Good reminder that if there isn't a recession during the year, the S&P 500 is higher 85% of the time.
Up double digits 68% of the time and down double digits only 5% of the time.
We don't see a recession in 2026 and this could bode well for this bull market to continue. pic.twitter.com/CQzAHOb9A1
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 24, 2025
December is the third best month of the year with average gains ranging from 1.2% from Russell 1000 to 2.1% by Russell 2000. In post-election years, December remains bullish, but average performance modestly softer for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ https://t.co/V1PFae347U pic.twitter.com/aTAUfWVb5i
— Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) November 24, 2025
SPX 10-day Moving Average Close Below 50-day After Above at Least 100 Days. pic.twitter.com/FCf9oM2Umo
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) November 25, 2025
If Mon & Tues close higher does that kill the Wed-Fri Thanksgiving bullish edge? Nope. I'll be discussing this study and more in tonight's letter. Also…Black Friday sale coming later this week so it might be a good time to take a free trial: https://t.co/K7UTsoIWwi $SPY $SPX pic.twitter.com/ntdzzagPWb
— Quantifiable Edges (@QuantifiablEdgs) November 25, 2025
Has SPX peaked versus rest of world? Not from a trend-following perspective. #WatchingPaintDry pic.twitter.com/lUsbPMLl0w
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) November 25, 2025
$NVDA vs. $GOOGL 🥊 pic.twitter.com/XpX3hYHDMw
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) November 25, 2025
If you invest long enough, you’ll live through drawdowns of every size:
–5%? Nearly every year.
–10%? Every other year.
–20%? Every 4 years.
The premium you earn from owning stocks is the reward for sitting through them. pic.twitter.com/sPA9nU2ijR— Peter Mallouk (@PeterMallouk) November 25, 2025
Mutual funds cash allocation down to a record low, 1.2% according to GS. pic.twitter.com/HWHLrX4BKX
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) November 25, 2025
Semiconductor stocks are getting hammered today, which makes this a timely chart to share. pic.twitter.com/4NKIuNFm3J
— Turning Point Market Research (@TPMRSignals) November 25, 2025
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