“Never base your portfolio actions on actions of others. You don’t know when they began their investment, you don’t know their motivation for selling/taking profit etc.” – Seth Golden via X on August 8th, 2021
Mid-week Summary
Wednesday, May 14th, 2025
Indices:
QQQ closed at $507.85, up +1.52% | SPY closed at $586.84, up +0.66% | IWM closed at $208.63, up +0.37% | DIA closed at $424.23, down -0.64%.
Sectors:
6 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher. Information Technology led, rising +2.25%. Health Care lagged, falling -2.97% to a 52-week low.
Currencies:
The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued its decline and found support around $101.00.
Crypto:
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently at $104,139.
Ethereum (ETH) is currently at $2,640.
Commodities:
Crude Oil (/CL) closed at $63.67 per barrel.
Gold (/GC) closed at $3,247.80 per oz.
Silver (/SI) closed at $32.87 per oz.
Copper (/HG) closed at $4.68 per lb.
Volatility:
The Volatility Index ($VIX) fell -0.92% to 18.22.
The VIX Volatility Index (VVIX) rose +4.16% to 87.93.
U.S. Treasuries:
The US 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) fell -1.16% to 4.402%.
The 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell -0.41% to close at $85.89.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Week
$VIX is telling you something. pic.twitter.com/flsrnxAjKo
— Linda Tang (@LindaTangUSA) May 9, 2025
🏆 Today’s Chart of the Week was shared by Linda Tang (@LindaTangUSA).
The VIX Index, often called Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” is hovering near prior resistance at roughly 20 as of May 9, 2025, will this level prove of any support? Doesn’t seem so, yet. Despite looming market catalysts like the Fed meeting on June 18 and the tariff deadline on July 8. The chart shows a (now breached) downward trendline from 2017 to 2025, reflecting a recently prolonged, period of declining volatility.
Historically, the VIX tends to be mode-reverting, fluctuating around a long-term average of $15-$20, as noted by Cboe. Sub-20 VIX levels, often signal market complacency, which can precede sharp volatility spikes—especially during uncertain events like those upcoming. For context, the VIX spiked to 57.96 earlier in April 2025 before dropping to 33.62 after a tariff pause, per Reuters.
Linda’s chart, while criticized for its (now breached) trendline approach, highlights a key tension: the VIX is at a level where it has often found resistance before significant market moves in the past 5 years, such as during the 2020 Covid crash or the 2022, Ukraine-Russia War, bear market.
The Takeaway: The VIX’s current low reading of now $18.39 suggests market complacency, but its historical mode-reverting nature and upcoming catalysts like the June Fed meeting and tariff deadlines set the stage for a potential volatility spike in the shorter term.
Quote of The Week
Investing quote of the day: pic.twitter.com/BHwZkshFh5
— Meb Faber (@MebFaber) April 7, 2025
Top 10 Tweets of The Week
Nothing good happens below the 200dma.
Except market bottoms. $SPX pic.twitter.com/5U4YUyVcED
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) May 12, 2025
“IF THE GRASS LOOKS GREENER ON THE OTHER SIDE, STOP STARING. STOP COMPARING, STOP COMPLAINING, AND START WATERING THE GRASS YOU’RE STANDING ON”
Yesterday saw a DeGraaf Breadth Thrust (55%+ of S&P 500 stocks hit a 20 day high).
3 weeks ago we got a Zweig Breadth Thrust.
Here's what happens when we get both Thrusts within a month of each other: pic.twitter.com/xGvgb5HJck
— Subu Trade (@SubuTrade) May 13, 2025
Yes, I’m sure it can always get worse?
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is released on Friday. Whether it will go higher or lower than the current 52.2, I don't know. But I do know that 52.2 is super-duper low. Look at how the S&P 500 did after prior sentiment plunges. Pretty good. pic.twitter.com/GMUSgWiC1Q
— Jeff Weniger (@JeffWeniger) May 13, 2025
Do you really need the President to tell you its a good time to buy stocks, in order to be long U.S. stocks? The 3 below posts will prove to you that the answer is clearly, NO! All I see is missed buying opportunities when thinking about the 3 best traders I know; Shoulda, Coulda, and Woulda.
Obama reminds us the stock market has nearly tripled since he came into office. Related: https://t.co/DddfKvToBS pic.twitter.com/FSZKoPso7A
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) December 16, 2016
When in doubt, ZOOM OUT!
Taking about a thousand steps back, we can see that in the grand scheme of things, the current 22% correction is just a bump on the road. Yes, a 150-year timeframe is longer than we will be alive, but nevertheless it’s useful to zoom out to gain perspective. pic.twitter.com/OhVK9DydXy
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) May 13, 2025
BTW, International Stocks are not outperforming the SP500 on any time frame above “YTD”
That’s it. 1Y or more and they are still crushed by US stocks.
— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) May 13, 2025
The most liked tweet of our entire publication,… you wonder why? 😉🗑️
Oh my …. https://t.co/k065XBZoHK pic.twitter.com/4MHKdSKC20
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 13, 2025
“How many times Fed cuts rates is ALWAYS the wrong consideration. What matters is the economy. Why the Fed cuts fewer times is what markets vote on!”
-Seth Golden via X on 1/5/2025
#FedWatch: Summer rate cut expectations cooling. pic.twitter.com/pe59iaq45e
— CME Group Interest Rates (@Interest_Rates) May 12, 2025
Last but certainly, not least!
If, if…? this is technical bear mkt rally, it will have proven the greatest of all time, rallying 17.3% off the closing basis low.
Next closest was 1957's nearly 16% rally from low, ultimately delivering a real bear market. $SPX $SPY $ES_F $QQQ $NYA $IWM $VOO $VIX pic.twitter.com/JPfRy8px3Q
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) May 13, 2025
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