“In the face of pressure to lower rates, they’re going to lower rates.
They are.
Again, the rapidity doesn’t seem harmful. This is, unfortunately, political pressure that has the potential to cause trouble.
We might look back five, six, seven, eight months from now and say, “Oh, the Fed should have never cut rates.”
What kind of scumbag are you? The Fed should have never cut rates after beating the economy into submission?
This is how it always goes: the Fed is treated as if it’s perfect — 100% perfect in achieving desirable outcomes for the economy.
They’ve NEVER BEEN WRONG.
The only way we imagine them making mistakes is because we have the luxury of playing Monday-morning quarterback —
watching from the sidelines and looking at things in hindsight. They have to make the call in real time. We don’t.
We don’t have to cut rates, raise rates, or do nothing. They do.
So we critique. We lambast. We denigrate them to our heart’s desire. And we do.
We’ve got the “get out of jail free” card. They don’t. But that doesn’t change the fact that they’ve “never been wrong” — which is why we always call on the Fed to come to the rescue, every-single-time!!
And yet, it always unfolds this way: when they’re found at fault, it’s pinned on stupidity, negligence, or ignorance — not of monetary policy, but of fiscal policy.
Because here’s the truth: no matter what the Fed does, it can’t overcome the size or direction of fiscal policy.
The effectiveness of monetary policy is determined by fiscal choices.
The only entity with the real possibility of being wrong is on the fiscal side, not the monetary side.
Think about the function here: we’re calling on the Fed to do what? Save us from what?
From what we broke!
We break it on the fiscal side, and then we reach for the life preserver of monetary policy.“
– Seth Golden, Chief Market Strategist at FinomGroup.com
(Contributor/Premium Members Only)
Mid-week Summary
Wednesday, September 17th, 2025
Welcome to Market Mania!
Where every Fed meeting is a high-stakes balancing act—and the only thing more entertaining than September volatility is Wall Street trying to time it.
This week, markets arrive at the latest crossroads: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have eased from record highs, investors are bracing for Powell’s next move, and the usual “September swoon” narrative has thus far been met with surprising resilience, once again. Noted, MR. Market! Fresh PPI data cooled rate-cut speculators only a touch, while hot retail sales added fuel to the fire, and jobless claims looms once again—yet underneath it all, debate rages as to just how fragile, or opportunistic, the current moment really is.
All eyes are on the Fed’s expected 25bps cut—the first since the 2024 cutting cycle began exactly a year ago—but, as highlighted in last Sunday’s research review, the question isn’t how much the Fed will move, but why? Is monetary easing meant to bolster a labor market that’s lost momentum, or aimed at countering growth drags from tariffs and tightening political risk? Powell’s guidance will help set the tone for rates, bonds, and risk assets well into Q4.
Last weekend’s research also rings in the background:
– Quant signals flagged how September’s OpEx period is often the “worst week” of the year—expecting a healthy market shakeout could be prudent, especially with fund flows stretched and technical over-extension evident in major indices.
– At the same time, breadth and earnings remain firm. Even as volatility perks up, NYSE breadth signals (A/D line at all-time highs) still confirm underlying strength, while corporate fundamentals and option flows point more to a temporary pause than a peak.
– The caution this week is about missing opportunity, not fearing a crash. When history sets up negative, and the market delivers strength, “AGGRESSIVE DISCIPLINE”—not prediction—must guide capital market allocations. PAYING ATTETION YET?
Think flexibility, not paralysis; dips, not collapses. (TIME > PRICE)
Political drama continues, with new FOMC voices like Stephen Miran in play and fresh tension over central bank independence as Powell was “TOO LATE” once again, according to DJT, of course… But for markets, the central premise remains: the long-term winners won’t be those who obsess over the latest dot-plot or next headline, but those who stay nimble, process-driven, and data-adaptive no matter the script.
Q3 closes with mega-cap tech still leading, small and mid-caps catching up, bonds realigning, and volatility stirring—but not yet boiling over. A modest correction, if it emerges, is more a reload than a red flag.
So cut through the noise, watch for probabilities over predictions, and remember: SCHEDULED fund flows, sentiment, and fiscal/monetary policy may shift—but discipline and process are what will survive in Market Mania.
Stay adaptive. Stay opportunistic. Let’s get after it.
It's just that simple:
The 1st rate cut in nearly a year will likely be a trial balloon rate cut aimed at supporting labor market. Should bond market prove adversarial to such monetary policy action, the 1st rate cut will likely prove the last rate cut. pic.twitter.com/p6xiliMxSQ
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) August 25, 2025
Markets only care about 1 thing at this stage of the bull market, and only 1 thing: Fed is NOT cutting! If your analytics don’t lend to a hike, markets don’t care 🤷♂️
All else proves inconsequential conversation and an exercise in mental gymnastics. 🛑
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) August 18, 2025
Chart(s) of the Week
🏆 Today’s Chart of the Week was shared by Seth Golden and Bluekurtic Market Insights (@SethCL & @Bluekurtic):
The probability $SPX bucks September curse has improved.
When SPX achieves ATH and first 9 trading sessions are positive in September, SPX has been positive for the month of September all but once (since 1957) or 94% of the time.$SPY $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $NYA $VOO $NVDA $AAPL
h/t… pic.twitter.com/EqvMBgeEfB— Seth Golden (@SethCL) September 17, 2025
September’s “Curse” Is the Exception—Not the Rule
Today’s Chart of the Week, shared by Seth Golden and Bluekurtic Market Insights, dismantles the old Wall Street September scare narrative with hard data and sharper perspective as we approach the most bearish two-weeks of the year, from a positivity rate AND avg. return standpoint.
Goldman Sachs:
“The 2nd half of September “is the worst 2-week period of the year with an average return of -1.38% looking back from 1928 .. Fund flows are dreadful, out of office en masse”
The key signal:
When the S&P 500 scores an all-time high and the first 9 trading days in September are positive, history’s odds tilt dramatically bullish. Since 1957, 16 of 17 such Septembers closed positive—a 94% win rate—with average monthly returns near 3%.
Market Asymmetry: Pricing Recessions Versus Expansions
It’s crucial to note that markets are not perfectly reciprocal. They tend to price recessions aggressively well before they happen (NBER typically lags) but do not price expansions or recoveries as promptly or efficiently. This asymmetry means markets can sustain momentum and climb amid headline economic softness until stronger fundamental signals arrive.
The Quants Only Failed for a Time—But Time Itself Is the Greatest Edge
Beginning of year quant signals stumbled temporarily due to exogenous shocks—policy unpredictability and external shocks that models cannot foresee. Yet failed bearish breakdowns have been the lifeblood of this market cycle, offering shakeouts and reset points. When one day those signals do definitively fail, it can’t be predicted, so waiting for that moment is futile.
Importantly, time matters more than price. Investors should think in terms of generations—consider your kids’ kids. Time heals, and the market’s resilience over the long run is unparalleled. The power and underlying strength behind the Duelling Zweig Breadth Thrust and DeGraaf Thrust signals accomplished in April 2025 remain too strong to underestimate. They provide a durable foundation for this market’s ongoing trend and point not only a technical strength but something bigger under the surface as well (💪 fundamentals)
Personal Reflection Illustrates This Reality
Bearish sentiment was heavy at 4,800 on the S&P, quickly surprised by the swift market resilience ever since. Chasing at the 50% retracement near 5,567 was uncomfortable and nerve-wracking for any of the brave souls who participated, as the double-bottom (April Lows Retest) echoed throughout Wall Street. Won’t name names… Yet here we are, almost 1,000 points higher. This journey underscores why data sequencing and patience—quants and process—remain the greatest tools in navigating markets.
What This Means Going Forward
– Positive momentum in September’s early days significantly improves the odds for the full month’s gain.
– Markets’ asymmetric pricing and the limits of modeling should inform humility and patience.
– The lasting impact of key breadth signals from earlier in the year supports optimism amid (to-be-expected) near-term volatility.
In Market Mania, remember: process beats prediction, time beats timing, and data nuances beat simple narratives.
BONUS:
September quarterly options expiration mixed, week after historically appalling. SP500 down 12 of last 13 September quarterly OPEX Fridays and down 27 of last 35 weeks after. https://t.co/xc9xWKLirL pic.twitter.com/pfBywR0NvC
— Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) September 15, 2025
Info Tech investment levels rise but still remain well below the Dotcom bubble level.
This does not deny or validate future ROI from such CAPEX, but it may deny a bubble. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $NDX $META $AMZN $MSFT $AAPL@TS_Lombard @darioperkins pic.twitter.com/ZJO6Syfk8y
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) September 15, 2025
See here … another great paper from AQR (this is from almost a decade ago) https://t.co/6HyduTj3UT
— Sonu Varghese (@sonusvarghese) July 18, 2025
Nasdaq 100 has had a strong year and sits just a few bps under an all-time high but only 40% of its stocks are above the 50-day moving average and the 3-, 6-, & 12-month new high lists peaked back in June. Something to keep an eye on. $QQQ pic.twitter.com/zpVFF03xd2
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) September 17, 2025
Every modern recession has been preceded by the same signal:
1. Falling Industrial Production
2. Falling advanced Retail Sales
3. Jobless Claims advancing 50K from prior 12-mn avg.None of which is present today. Please be sure to tip your waiter before leaving, but do leave!… https://t.co/SIM0S5hL3u pic.twitter.com/QU8yEluvaN
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) September 13, 2025
Quote(s) of The Week
The following quotes speak to themselves, I will now allow you to interpret them freely without any of my personal inputs.
Better to live life erring on the side of being optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right!
Be realistic, but, as Monty Python would say, always look on the bright side of life! https://t.co/ISdddxdpQl
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 17, 2025
“If there is anyone here whom I have not insulted, I beg his pardon.” Johannes Brahms
— Adithia Kusno ☦️🐂🚀💎🙌🎯 (@AdithiaKusno) September 12, 2025
Quote of the Day –
“Change before you're forced to change.” – Roger Goodell— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 5, 2025
Investing quote of the day: pic.twitter.com/KZz4tNEN74
— Meb Faber (@MebFaber) September 11, 2025
$SOFI h/t @LizThomasStrat pic.twitter.com/UdKS2wEWZ1
— Finom Group AYNI Luis Solórzano (@aynirealtor) September 16, 2025
Underrated life skill: Knowing when to stop. Stop arguing with people who don’t listen. Stop chasing people who run away. Stop forcing relationships that drain you. Stop grinding on things that don’t matter. Stop saying yes when you mean no. Stopping isn’t weakness, it’s wisdom.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) September 14, 2025
Top 10 Tweets of The Week
Each prior instance you say?
"I may not be a smart man…" but reading is fundamental.
Social media for ya kids! https://t.co/eG93ct6PHY pic.twitter.com/mymDvDrLgp
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) September 17, 2025
$ARKW – The largest trades tend to appear near swing highs and lows. #2 printed today. Image two shows how this $150-$170 zone has been peppered with large trades since August.
Top holdings include $TSLA, $BTC, $ROKU, and $RBLX. pic.twitter.com/aeycJ9viib
— VolumeLeaders (@VolumeLeaders) September 17, 2025
Never base your entire investment thesis on what someone else is saying/doing. No matter who it is. Albeit ‘David Hunter’ or ‘Mike Wilson’ or ‘Jim Cramer’ or ‘Savita Subramanian’, or ‘Marko… kolakaka 💩’ !
Can use to confirm your bias… (SCHRÖDINGERS MARKET)
Sven is back bear posting
Looks like we’ve got another two years+ of this bull market
I don’t make the rules https://t.co/q6h2pAKzvs
— Chris Dover (@ChrisDMacro) September 16, 2025
Do me a favor and bookmark/screenshot this post for later. Because who doesn’t like sounding smart and feeling even better about how wrong you’ve been?
‘RISK MANAGEMENT’ they call it.
Systematic investors are maxed out. Potentially an explosive situation (like this April) when volatility increases. https://t.co/1PTphOG47n
— Marko Kolanovic (@markoinny) September 17, 2025
When in doubt, just ‘Smart Money’ bro.
The Last Hour Indicator had risen 9 consecutive sessions, a streak seen in fewer than 1% of history.
After prior 20 occurrences, $SPX advanced 90% of the time over 5 and 6 months, with Technology showing consistent leadership $XLK $QQQ.$ES_F $SPY $NDX $AAPL $MSFT $AVGO $ORCL… pic.twitter.com/ZP6QnrTU8T
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) September 17, 2025
You don’t profit from avoiding downside, but rather riding upside. Buy and Hold, but when markets correct look for Finom Group bottom signals. They have called EVERY corrective botttom since 2016. Ride the Bull long enough you won’t fear down, but hope for it!
Bull markets are… https://t.co/saAiNKCf0o
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) September 16, 2025
DIG DEEPER. Behavior over Intellect.
Torsten Slok has been pumping out terribly underwhelming and fruitless economic analysis for well over a year now, most of which carried a recessionary or exceptionally weak economy-bias, within 12 months.
Attached is a Q & A ahead of September 2024’s first rate cut/FOMC… pic.twitter.com/6AuOR5q8Mj
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) September 16, 2025
What if i told you the stock market was more expensive in February, than where we are now even though price is absolutely higher. MATH 🧮 is weird right? Aren’t you entertained!!! ⚔️
The stock market isn't pricier than in February and seems healthier now. Back then, seven of eight key indicators signaled caution, but at Sep 4th top, only four did. Importantly, the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line and Equal Weighted SPX are backing the index's action.… pic.twitter.com/R1DWMr3wmE
— The Leuthold Group (@LeutholdGroup) September 16, 2025
But we HAVE TO be in a bubble bro! $GOOGL will go bankrupt due to OpenAI, search engine is DEAD they said… 😱 🔮
(DATA IS THE REAL DIGITAL GOLD, not Bitcoin, in my honest opinion).
Google is now trading above its average EV/EBIT over the last 10 years.
The search giant has gone from AI Loser to AI Darling in less than 6 months.$GOOGL pic.twitter.com/ciwvN3dyXE
— Fiscal.ai (formerly FinChat) (@fiscal_ai) September 16, 2025
I KEEP TELLING YOU EACH TIME IS DIFFERENT.
If human behaviors are the only constant. Which is the cause and which is the effect?
This seemed inconceivable back in early April…
The S&P 500 is now up the exact same amount during Trump 2.0 as it was at this point during Trump 1.0.
At 164 trading days into both Trump terms, the S&P is at +10%. pic.twitter.com/iZkkuCfOcy
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) September 15, 2025
Worth noting the current range of 10Y yield we are in provides the second worst median annual total returns for the SP500 (7-8% 10YR yields a 6% median total annual $SPX return vs 4-5% 10YR at 11%). 🙃
Still bearish, huh?
What are stocks $SPX valued vs risk free rate $TNX?
Who friggin' cares! Stock market surely doesn't.
As evidenced, there is no relationship between bonds and stocks. Regardless of the yield, stocks hold no consistent price relationship to bond yields.
Examples:
2020 yield… pic.twitter.com/VUNJJaF35Y
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) September 16, 2025
How is that stock picking going for ya?
ETF’s folks!!! These tools/instruments were made for a reason.
$GRNY $ETHU $IBIT $TQQQ $XLK $SMH $CIBR $XLC $TLT $MAGS $CURE, to name a few. 😉
Tom Lee said on @CNBCClosingBell today that if the Fed cuts, the biggest beneficiaries will be:
1. NASDAQ 100 (Mag 7 + AI)
2. Bitcoin & Ethereum — “could make a monster move in the next 3 months”
3. Small caps & financials pic.twitter.com/HoEW6VgdDt
— Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom) (@TomLeeTracker) September 15, 2025
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[Click here for a free Morning Market Setup sample from September 15th 2025!]
Finom Group – Recent Reports
September 14, 2025
September’s Op/EX And The Worst Week Of The Year Await Investors
September 7, 2025
August 31, 2025
April to-date Markets Float Like A Butterfly; Here Comes The September Bee Sting?
August 26, 2025
August 17, 2025
Reflation Concerns Prove Short-Lived
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!
If you have any questions, feel free to message Seth Golden or contact us support@finomgroup.com
Comment below or tag us on X (@FinXWeekly) with your thoughts—your feedback drives our innovation.
