“Act on local price weakness with a long-term mindset 🧠!
Make time ⏰ your best friend.”
Rule of thumb 👍
I don’t worry about a down day/market $SPX $QQQ when crap 💩 retail like $M and $KSS are higher in the same tape. I worry wether or not I’m recognizing the tells as opportunity!
– SETH GOLDEN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT FINOMGROUP.COM
(CONTRIBUTOR/PREMIUM MEMBERS ONLY)
MID-WEEK SUMMARY
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 15TH, 2025
WELCOME TO MARKET MANIA!
We have arrived at one of the most pivotal stretches of the year, “OCTOBERPHOBIA”. Per AlmanacTrader, a period defined by volatility, opportunity, and the relentless tug-of-war between risk and reward. If Friday’s steep pullback rattled nerves, it delivered the volatility that Finom Group’s latest macro-market research report anticipated all quarter long.
These swings are not outliers; they are a feature of the October landscape, and the data-driven approach remains unwavering: use short-term fear as LONG-TERM fuel 🔥.
Quantitative models and historical precedent paint a clear picture: while there’s a heightened probability for a deeper correction—potentially exceeding -3% but unlikely to breach -9% barring a true macro shock—the underlying odds still favor higher prices by year-end. Every significant drawdown has proved buyable for disciplined investors, and unless faced with an exogenous event, any near-term retreat should be treated as a tactical re-entry point rather than a reason to panic.
Technical signals continue to flash mixed warnings. Breadth and momentum have deteriorated since recent all-time highs, and volatility—the VIX—jumped above 20, consistent with the season’s reputation for wild swings. Fragility is apparent in overheated leadership (Tech, Semis), low dispersion measures, and credit spreads that have begun to widen; all these demand respect but not retreat.
BUT WAIT, could a dueling ZBT (Zweig Breadth Thrust) be on the horizon? History says no, as 1962/2023 are the only 2 years where a dueling ZBT has actually been satisfied within a 12 month rolling period, none within all time highs. This time would have to be different… 😉 💯
Fundamentals offer a counterweight. Earnings growth expectations have been revised higher across sectors heading into Q3 reporting, with big banks and money-center stocks set to anchor results in the coming days. Each shallow dip remains supported by real consumer spending, ongoing retail demand, and manufacturing orders continuing to rise—even as payrolls and real income show early signs of peaking. The economy’s problems are persistent, but so is market resilience.
The message for traders and investors? Stay disciplined, focus on the probabilities, and leverage volatility rather than fear it. Dollar-cost averaging, portfolio rebalancing, and tactical ETF positioning are your tools for staying ahead as the market digests gains and resets for its next leg higher. Don’t chase, don’t flinch—manage cash, seek value, and let quant discipline guide your game plan.
As Q4 unfolds, expect continued volatility, stronger earnings, and new opportunities for the well-prepared. Steer clear of market noise, step on the gas when conditions warrant, and remember: time is the long-term investor’s best ally, and compounding works best when fear is at its peak.
Get ready—the finish line is in sight, and the race will reward those who invest with conviction and discipline.
Ready to dive into the full Q4 research, trade signals, and macro context? The key evidence and actionable ideas follow 👇.
CHART(S) OF THE WEEK
🏆 TODAY’S CHART OF THE WEEK WAS SHARED BY RYAN DETRICK AND SONU VARGHESE (@RyanDetrick & @SonusVarghese):
Looking at MAG 7, we see some clear multiple expansion the past 3 yrs, with all Tesla gains coming here
The others have seen earnings growth as big parts of the story
NVIDIA is an amazing story. Up 1500% the past 3 yrs yet 1435% came from earnings!
Great data @sonusvarghese. pic.twitter.com/n5F0kjELbf
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 15, 2025
Love this from @sonusvarghese.
S&P 500 up about 90% the first three years of this bull market and many claim it was all Mag 7.
Turns out 39% of it came from the Mag 7 and the other 50% came from the 493.
Yes, it was a top heavy market, but not as much as you'd think. pic.twitter.com/xYwJvBRlJW
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 15, 2025
🏆 Chart of the Week: The Magnificent 7 — Earnings Are Driving Explosive Returns
This week’s Chart of the Week spotlights a powerful testimony to the underlying strength fueling the market’s biggest leaders—the MAG 7. As highlighted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese from Carson Investment Research, shown in this detailed return breakdown, earnings growth has been the predominant driver of performance, far outpacing multiple expansion.
Over the past three years (October 2022 to October 2025), NVIDIA stands in a league of its own—delivering a staggering 1500% total return, with roughly 1435% attributable directly to earnings growth. This exemplifies the importance of fundamental profitability behind market gains, beyond bouts of sentiment-driven multiple expansions.
Other MAG 7 constituents like Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Meta also show significant earnings-driven returns—underscoring that sustainable, profitable growth remains paramount for long-term wealth creation in a market filled with headline noise.
Tesla’s unique profile shows a negative earnings growth contribution but positive multiple expansion, highlighting how differing business cycles and expectations play out even within mega-cap dominance. Amazon’s story also reflects a complex interplay between earnings and multiples.
Why This Matters Today
• The clear lesson is that chasing price alone—multiple-driven momentum without earnings support—is a higher-risk proposition and demands proper storytelling.
• NVIDIA’s earnings dominance signals that focus must remain on cash flow, profitability, and innovation leadership to predict industry positions—and investment winners.
• As markets navigate elevated volatility and periodic pullbacks, the MAG 7’s earnings resilience continues to be the anchor for the broader market’s health.
• This chart validates why long-term investors should be focused on earnings trends, not just “bubble-ish” price action or thematic Gen-AI/Tech hype.
The chart offers rich perspective on how earnings fuel leadership, differentiate growth styles, and create the structural backdrop for coming quarters. As the market evolves through 2025’s volatile finish, this analysis is a critical reminder to ground investing in fundamentals—not just momentum.
BONUS:
While it may feel more conservative to cast the broader net of the S&P 1500, the difference to the S&P 500 is negligible in most ways that matter. This is largely a function of a highly concentrated US equity market, something we don’t see changing in the coming years.$VOO… pic.twitter.com/Ac6rgBD3LS
— Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) (@DataTrekMB) October 15, 2025
The only reason stock prices have risen is because of buybacks. Ummmmm, NOPE!🚫
Since 2001 buybacks account for .2% of EPS growth, otherwise known as NO contribution whatsoever. Revenues and profit margin, there's your beef! $SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $NDX $DIA pic.twitter.com/BJAUiFBl00
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) September 10, 2025
“Study in depth how people boil frogs slowly 👀 If too hot frogs jumped out 🫣 By keeping it warm frogs would invite more to join jump in thinking it would be others who would sink down first 😂 Wait until frogs realized pots have an invisible cover 🤭 This is not a bio lab advice.”
Harvard Business School
This is so sad, if not for #tariffs we would have continued the disinflation process. 4%+ price increases since March/April #TrumpTariffs #economy #inflation #CPI pic.twitter.com/DszlVq8rBd
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 15, 2025
I was told China was going to pay the #tariffs…
Goldman Sachs:
51% of tariffs consumed by U.S. enterprise and 37% by U.S. #consumers pic.twitter.com/dBQfGaqkoW
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 14, 2025
QUOTE(S) OF THE WEEK
Quote of the Day –
“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau” – Irving Fisher96 years ago today.
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 15, 2025
Quote of the Day –
“Pessimism never won any battle.” – Dwight Eisenhower— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 14, 2025
“Don’t be that person who is scared of the headlines. It will get you absolutely nowhere.
The market doesn’t reward those who are fearful, it rewards those who are disciplined!” – @SethCL https://t.co/A5Hr7MgVRA
— Finom Group AYNI Luis Solórzano (@aynirealtor) November 19, 2024
Humans are wired to pay more attention to threats than to good news.
Someone warning about bubbles or crashes sounds rational, helpful, looking outside the box. A bullish insight often gets framed as naive, even when correct.. because “anyone can ride a bull market," right? pic.twitter.com/PQbpu6SlBk
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) October 13, 2025
A setback is just a SET-up for a comeBACK.
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) October 14, 2025
There are two types of people in life.
People that do things.
And people that talk about people that do things.
— Mark (@markbuildsbrand) October 13, 2025
Don't rush to build empires. Build a weapon no one can take from you. A skill so sharp that even if life stripped away all your wealth, you can rebuild faster than before. 💯😤💪
If you took away a self-made wealthy man's money, he'd make it back within years.
cc: @aynirealtor
— FrankyThePlunger (@FrankyDaPlunger) October 14, 2025
— Mindful Maven (@mindfulmaven_) October 10, 2025
— Reads with Ravi (@readswithravi) October 10, 2025
— Reads with Ravi (@readswithravi) October 10, 2025
A ton of insightful charts to cover in this weekend's video. pic.twitter.com/M2Vm48QGvN
— Chris Ciovacco (@CiovaccoCapital) October 10, 2025
The older I get, the more I realize your standards decide your future. Every time you let something slide “just this once,” you train yourself to accept less. That’s how goals erode. That's how principles slip. Set your standards. Hold the line. Especially when it’s hard.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) October 10, 2025
TOP 10 TWEETS OF THE WEEK
In recent years, the S&P was weak over the next few days: pic.twitter.com/gVhOsMeZR7
— Subu Trade (@SubuTrade) October 15, 2025
Market gets a freaky Friday this year on the 24th
CPI will be released next Friday whether the US government opens or not, since it’s critical for the work of the Social Security Administration
Per Barclays, expect the term structure to reflect higher forward volatility there pic.twitter.com/8qqDOPPblf
— VolSignals (@VolSignals) October 15, 2025
Friday was the biggest call buying day EVER on Citadel platform!
Retail flow +11% vs avg +4%
Options flow +73% vs 3M avg. https://t.co/lKY9a3EPya— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) October 15, 2025
5th highest rate of inflows to single stocks since 2008! $4.1B 👀 pic.twitter.com/Ja5fPVEjw0
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) October 15, 2025
The cost to hedge tech stocks is climbing fast! Protection for $QQQ over $SPY is now the highest since April!! Traders are clearly paying up for downside insurance in big-cap tech, a shift worth watching. 👀 pic.twitter.com/7wnXbDMojJ
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) October 15, 2025
📌 Gold
$4,000 gold isn't just a headline—it's the latest move in a powerhouse rally that has left equities in the dust since the millennium
👉 https://t.co/fAILhp13MO@markets $gold #gold $gld #gld $spx #spx #MSCI pic.twitter.com/ivYOiUFTUo— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) October 9, 2025
How bearish are we when $ARKK < 5% from 52wk high's?! pic.twitter.com/XLsRYTV93w
— Randy Dunham (@itmrandy) October 15, 2025
$SPX Friday's 2.7% decline was the biggest since loss 4/10/25…
… but the peak to trough move of -3.2% doesn't stand out at all. pic.twitter.com/btf7nwZeIx
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) October 14, 2025
BofA Global Fund Manager Survey:
FMS cash levels at very low 3.8%, liquidity conditions rated best since Sep'21, investors are the most UW cash since Dec'24 pic.twitter.com/YzNknBBwfl
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 14, 2025
BofA clients 10% in caseh – lowest in 7 years pic.twitter.com/eqKp9kMQW2
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) October 10, 2025
Company guidance looking strong heading into this earnings season per @Bloomberg index
@biancoresearch pic.twitter.com/dQ29Uh8Esh— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 15, 2025
The S&P 500 is expensive but also unusually profitable, which wasn't true in the dot-com days.
That profitability drives growth, and as long as companies feed the market the growth it wants, it will continue to shake off concerns about politics or the broader economy.
My… pic.twitter.com/jcrnokc9kt
— Nir Kaissar (@nirkaissar) October 14, 2025
Since 1950 there are only 9 yrs when $SPX fell 15% or greater and still made a new ATH in same year.
In every. single. occurrence. the next biggest drawdown from ATH averaged -6%.
Average annual return was +24%. Be a dip buyer?$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $SMH $NVDA $VIX
h/t… pic.twitter.com/X6MwF3PYCK— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 14, 2025
one of the all-time great stats via @bespokeinvest. only owning on days after down days smokes only owning on days after up days https://t.co/2iCcSrgZEF pic.twitter.com/YW91g0GgPq
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) October 13, 2025
The fourth year of the bull market starts right now.
Only once did year four see a bear market and end to the bull market (1966).
The past four year fours saw stocks up double digits and higher six out of seven times. pic.twitter.com/e9UuNONlEV
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 13, 2025
Today is October 12th.pic.twitter.com/54yo7fp6rZ
— Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) October 12, 2025
Inverse ETF volume (as % of total spec volume) moved from mid-20s to low-30s on yesterday's selloff.
Still reflecting retail enthusiasm.
For perspective, in recent years, modest corrections stop around 40% (see "yen carry")…more severe cases require >50% (liberation day). pic.twitter.com/CS6LZehuNx
— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) October 11, 2025
S&P 500 has been up 15 of the last 17 October monthly options expiration weeks. Average gain of 1.05% in all 17 weeks. https://t.co/Jv2ZpT1gGa pic.twitter.com/RJ0RPf8erv
— Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) October 10, 2025
How to not lose money in the stock market:
1: Wait longer pic.twitter.com/6eri7FRyPN
— Brian Feroldi (@BrianFeroldi) October 9, 2025
All-time high in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024, 2025
Now omit Dotcom boom/bust cycle and you would literally be able to claim all-time highs every year but GFC period. It's why Charlie Munger… "just because Warren mentioned it 30 years ago doesn't mean it is relevant today."… https://t.co/wpuQhqgvA0
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 5, 2025
S&P 500 has achieved 33 ATHs in 2025. Only 1 other time has $SPX achieved 33 ATHs in a calendar year (2020) and stopped there. Every other time it has achieved at least 1 more ATH (1968)
Our quant indicates SPX has a 89.5% probability there is at least 1 more high in 2025.… pic.twitter.com/uyRE3NHXkn
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) October 15, 2025
Let my track record speaks for itself 🙏 Please utilize Twitter search function to find my tweets on dual $NYSE $NDX Hindenburg omens ✍️ If weekly confirmed then recession 1Q26 but if weekly fail then might be delayed to 4Q26 midterm 👀 Clear thought process with invalidation NFA https://t.co/Bk0QFTpPGL
— Adithia Kusno ☦️🐂🚀💎🙌🎯 (@AdithiaKusno) October 15, 2025
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FINOM GROUP – RECENT REPORTS
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At 6,600+ There Are Too Many Wallflowers At The Stock Market Dance
SEPTEMBER 14, 2025
September’s Op/EX And The Worst Week Of The Year Await Investors
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