““Chronocentrism” is the belief that the current period is more important or significant than others, past or future. Frequently and often tragically, that view culminates with an investor boasting that “this time is different.” – Leuthold Group via April Macro-Market Mashup
Mid-week Summary
Wednesday, May 21st, 2025
Welcome to Market Mania!
“Sell in May and Go Away”—sound familiar? As we head into the historically tricky summer months, markets are buzzing with mixed signals: the Nasdaq is up 20% off the lows, but whispers of volatility are growing with the Fed meeting and tariff deadlines on the horizon. What’s the smart move? We’ve got you covered.
Market Mania is your daily digest of the most actionable insights you won’t find in your usual scroll—curated for thousands of market pros, asset managers, RIAs, and expert investors. We dig through the noise to bring you the best charts, articles, and ideas shared across the web each afternoon.
TLDR: We hunt, you read, you decide 🤝
Here’s what’s catching the eye of the sharpest minds in the market today!
Chart of the Week
Latest on the Conference Board’s LEI from @LizAnnSonders and me: https://t.co/3VMuQGeizM pic.twitter.com/ooi1gWKAEq
— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) May 20, 2025
🏆 Today’s Chart of the Week was shared by Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon).
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) is signaling caution, with widespread weaknesses across its components as of May 19, 2025, yet no recession has materialized. The chart breaks down the LEI’s ten components, showing five as weak (e.g., average workweek, consumer expectations) and three decelerating (e.g., unemployment claims, leading credit index), despite some bright spots like new orders for consumer goods (+). In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) remains robust, with all four components—payrolls, personal income, industrial production, and manufacturing/trade sales—rated as strong, though three are decelerating.
The LEI’s negativity might suggest an impending downturn, but as some observers note, the CEI is often more economically sensitive, reflecting current conditions more accurately. The CEI’s strength, up 1.1% over the six months from October 2024 to April 2025 per Conference Board data, explains why recession fears haven’t materialized. Historically, the CEI’s components, like payrolls and industrial production, are key in defining U.S. recessions, and their resilience aligns with recent economic stability despite global uncertainties, such as the tariff debates earlier in 2025, per Reuters. However, the LEI’s six-month growth rate has dipped deeper into negative territory, hinting at potential risks if trends worsen, as noted in the Conference Board’s diffusion index analysis.
Kevin’s chart highlights a critical tension: while the LEI warns of future challenges, the CEI’s strength suggests the economy remains on solid footing for now. Replies like @AlternateTrader’s question about unemployment claims reflect confusion over mixed signals, but the CEI’s dominance in current data offers clarity. With upcoming events like the Fed meeting on June 18, 2025, and tariff deadlines on July 8, 2025, the balance between these indices will be key to watch.
The Takeaway: The LEI’s negative signals are concerning, but the CEI’s strength, driven by robust payrolls and industrial production, explains the absence of a recession, though upcoming events like the Fed meeting and tariff deadlines could shift the economic trajectory in the near term.
Quote(s) of The Week
“First rule of investing is to take risk! Every other rule is a derivative of the first rule!”
~ Seth Golden
Paul Tudor Jones: "…market will hit new lows"
Steve Cohen: "…market could test April lows"
Katie Stockton: "…market could see a new low"
Michael Bury: "…short NVDA"
Seth Golden: "…shut up; still waiting on Dimon's
economic hurricane"… pic.twitter.com/Kz1zf7ifZv— Seth Golden (@SethCL) May 16, 2025
“If it makes a difference to you whether your stocks are down 15% or not, you need to get a somewhat different investment philosophy. The world is not going to adapt to you. You’re going to have to adapt to the world.”
~ Warren Buffett
Top 10 Tweets of The Week
In my opinion, Frank is an exceptionally skilled technician. He accurately predicted the $6,100 SPX target, similar to Seth, another uniquely exceptional individual in this field. Based on these observations, it is increasingly probable that the inverse H&S pattern will continue to resolve to the upside. I believe Ryan would also concur. Could millions of investors be wrong? Price action would argue otherwise. (absent endogeny/exogeny)
Interesting chart from @FrankCappelleri in his note this morning.
Potential S&P 500 target of 6,555. That would be fun 😁 pic.twitter.com/lTKZmufFhD
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) May 20, 2025
Another tweet I think might be worth timestamping along with Katie Stockton’s 5,125 ‘Fibonacci Zone’ S&P 500 PT we watched her disseminate, along with 5,500 bull case, in the Trading Room yesterday morning. Make sure to also save this below post for later! 😉 📸
$JPM CEO Jamie Dimon: "Forward P/E ratios are around 20 or 21 today. And you know, tariffs do affect the E…Earnings forecasts will come down. We started the year expecting earnings to be up 12%. Now it’s more like 6–7%. My guess? In six months, that could be zero. So earnings…
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) May 19, 2025
Every now and then he gets it right‼ 💪
Ignore the near-perfect analogue at your own risk if pessimistic/bearish. I choose optimism/bullish…$SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $SMH $NYA $IWM $VOO
h/t @DataTrekMB pic.twitter.com/RFEMMO079e— Seth Golden (@SethCL) May 8, 2025
Two months later SPY was higher 83% of the time, median 2% gain, 1-yr later only 1 negative return occurring in Nov 2021, resulting down -20%. Avg/median double-digit gains otherwise. If you’ve been reading any of our public Finom Group research at all, I would urge investors to consider that since 1885, the ONLY 5th year in a decennial cycle that has ever produced a negative return was 2015 at -0.7%. Anyways… enough rambling. Anyone still tracking those 1995/2009 analogues we’ve been following?
How about that BEAR MARKET RALLY aka dead cat bounce? You sure you’re doing that whole investing thing right?
Both SPY and QQQ are on track for perfect weeks.
Rising every day for an entire 5-day calendar week.
This doesn't happen during bear markets. pic.twitter.com/rw3pvhcJqk
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) May 16, 2025
Are you one of those folks still waiting for S&P500 to make a new low and double bottom around $4,000 or even lower? Bears 🐻 have absolutely ZERO shame!!! Literally the exact opposite of Fernando’s path has played out, yet many seem to flock to this users post, because it offers a SENSE of protection. A harsh reminder that as an investor you should ALWAYS MANAGE CASH WISELY. If you want to hedge for a possible downturn and a break of new lows as many claim, why not employ the DCA strategy in dribs and drabs with some of the cash we have been accumulating since the start of Q4/2025?
Anyways since we are on the topic of hedging,… VIX calls anybody??? We still laughing?
We Still laughing?
Update on sp500
4000 then 15000 thats my take
Crash until summer then bottom summer for new bull run
Tarifs Will hurt the market short term but long term big bull https://t.co/6KDrSCSWkX pic.twitter.com/JozGz3bYAQ
— Fernando (@fernandowavesfx) March 13, 2025
“There’s a BIG difference between being informed and being fearful.
Especially when it comes to investing, one should have healthy discipline, not a fear-driven mindset!”
– Seth Golden
Should you have known Utilities would prove the top performing sector in 2025? YES!!
In my 2025 Outlook Report, we highlighted that typically Year 3 of bull markets are led by Utilities. $SPX $SPY $ES_F $XLU $VZ $QQQ $IWM $DUK pic.twitter.com/kn0buePkQE
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) May 11, 2025
2M views because this is somehow value-added?
It’s happening ⏰🔔 pic.twitter.com/dJryfw6z1j
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 19, 2025
It’s happening AGAIN
Buckle up.
A thread 🧵 pic.twitter.com/6rC7jaRZfb
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) May 16, 2025
Just another bear market rally,? NOT SO FAST! 🏎️💨 50% retracement off the lows is a bullish feat that a savvy investor should never forget to consider!
Only time the low was not in was 2022 (Jackson Hole “more pain to come”)”
Also, the S&P 500 has retraced 84% of its peak-to-trough decline.
The mkt has never retraced this much of a bear market and subsequently revisited the lows.
The technical evidence points, overwhelmingly, to the beginning of another leg to the bull market and new ATHs. pic.twitter.com/Hv9UwfzTKF
— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) May 20, 2025
“Let’s not convince ourselves that we can predict the future folks. If we could, the Lottery is a great place to express those predictive skills.”
💥 THE FINAL RUN: BITCOIN TO $600,000
Timeframe: 90 days — from Monday, July 21, 2025
Starting BTC: $150,000
Ending BTC: $600,000
Final Gold: $10,400
DXY: Collapses from 96 → 68U.S. 10Y Yield: Spikes to 9.2% before being "frozen" by the Fed
SPX: Collapses 50%
1/10
— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) May 20, 2025
One last bonus tweet:
As Wall Street moved to downgrade all aspects of their forecasts, models, estimates and price targets in Q1 2025…
Heading into 2025, Finom Group investors already well-understood what to expect, how to position for, and how to respond.
Darn near perfectly played out! pic.twitter.com/jbrvZaBTIk
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) May 19, 2025
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[Click here for a free Morning Market Setup sample from May 19th!]
Finom Group – Recent Reports
Are Fund Flows Back To Their Regularly Scheduled Programming
