“…the 50-DMA is holding… for now. How much longer remains to be seen but before my ADHD catches up with me, I’ll remind investors/traders that if Tech/Semis/Growth/QQQs can’t find a new wave of buying, we’re likely going to continue this consolidation phase and ultimately break below the 50-DMA. Need that leadership to lead, because of the cap-weighting within cap-weighted indices proves market moving. Good news on that front if we think in MAG-7 terms is offered in the chart of the ETF for the MAG-7 (MAGS)”
– SETH GOLDEN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT FINOMGROUP.COM
(CONTRIBUTOR/PREMIUM MEMBERS ONLY)
MID-WEEK SUMMARY
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20TH, 2025
📰 Market Mania #20 — Winds of Change, Tailwinds in Play 🚀
Welcome to our free weekly “Market Mania” analysis! This 20th edition lands at a pivotal crossroad for equity investors, dissecting not just price action but the fundamental market regime beneath the surface. Our focus is on the latest proprietary report, “THE MARKET WINDS ARE SHIFTING”, and how its insights should shape your reaction to the powerful market catalyst delivered by Nvidia’s blowout earnings.
The market has been in a necessary consolidation phase since the S&P 500’s (SPX) peak on October 28th. This choppiness has been contained, however, with the 50-DMA for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ) proving supportive 🧲. While the Nasdaq is on a two-week losing streak, the S&P 500 managed to squeak out a slightly positive return this past week, confirming that the broader bull market backdrop remains intact. The current landscape was defined by the necessity for Technology and Semiconductor breadth to improve to sustain the rally. Enter Nvidia (NVDA). The company’s earnings provide the critical catalyst for the exact rotation—the return of Tech/Semis leadership—that our report identified as essential for continuing the uptrend. The newly disclosed Berkshire Hathaway holding in Alphabet (GOOGL) further fueled this optimism.
Embrace the Dip: Volatility as Opportunity
The most crucial insight from our latest weekly research report is that downside price action should not be feared, but instead seen as an opportunity for cheaper prices. The quantitative studies demonstrate that while volatility is a natural part of a protracted uptrend, historical probabilities overwhelmingly favor higher prices into year-end.
Year-End Positivity: When the S&P 500 ends October with trailing 6-month returns of 10% or more, the remaining two months of the year have never closed lower. The median return for the remaining two months is +6.30%. This reinforces the case for the S&P 500 to be back above 6,840 by year-end 2025.
The VIX Signal: After the VIX falls for four straight months (a signal that recently occurred), the S&P 500 has a 91% positivity rate two weeks later and a 100% positivity rate nine months later. This data informs investors to buy ANY dips.
Momentum Restarts: The S&P 500 recently snapped a 137-day streak without two consecutive RSI closes below 50. Historically, after these 100+ day streaks ended, the S&P 500 was up 100% of the time nine months later. This suggests strong momentum is set to resume, and our November 7th trigger price of 6,728 likewise reinforces limited time or room for downside.
Q4 Reversal Setup: In years when the S&P 500 endured a 10% correction and ended Q3 up at least 10% YTD (conditions met in 2025), the index was up every time in Q4, by a median of +7.5%. This quantitatively evidences more room to run above the September 30th closing value of 6,688.
Macro and Technical Context
While the quantitative analysis is highly bullish, the report maintains objectivity by addressing technical and economic headwinds.
Sector Rotation: Health Care (XLV) was highlighted as a deep value opportunity that rallied 17% from its low after Finom Group’s chief equity strategist, Seth Golden, recognized a potential double-bottom forming in mid-August 2025. This demonstrated that disciplined positioning paid off, and the expectation is for the weighting to be reduced to roughly ~2%, with consolidation into the high-$140s presenting a new buying zone.
Consumer Strength: Despite a perception of “economic malaise,” the consumer continues to support the economy with ever-expanding retail sales and consumption. This is evidenced by total card spending per household being up +2.4% Y/Y in October and the proportion of consumers with third-party collections being extremely low. This strong financial health is further supported by checkable deposits of the median U.S. household being near all-time highs.
Fragility Warnings: Technical warnings persist, as the NYSE High-Low Logic Index has increased, suggesting an “ever-increasingly bifurcated and otherwise fragile” market trend. The index is now at the highest level since the 2022 bear market. This historically signals a volatile stock year ahead with an average max drawdown of -13% over the following 12 months.
The Big Picture: Nothing in the economy or markets is guaranteed. While the NYSE HLL warns of fragility, the quantitative models overwhelmingly suggest the stage is set for a market rally and higher highs by year-end 2025. The strategy is to lean into these high probability outcomes and use any price dips as a means to compound returns.
CHART(S) OF THE WEEK
🏆 TODAY’S CHART OF THE WEEK WAS SHARED BY SETH GOLDEN AND BLUEKURTIC MARKET INSIGHTS (@SethCL and @BlueKurtic):
🏆 CHART(S) OF THE WEEK: The Mechanics of a Bottom
If the last two weeks of market action felt uncomfortable, that was by design. But rather than viewing this volatility as a breakdown, the data suggests we should view it as a necessary “cleansing mechanism”—like a forest fire clearing out dead wood to allow for new growth. The internal machinery of the market has been resetting, and the latest charts from Seth Golden and Bluekurtic signal that the gears are ready to turn forward again.
The Rubber Band Effect
First, look at the Semiconductor sector. Prior to the Nvidia earnings release, the sector had been stretched to its absolute limit on the downside. We witnessed a rare “washout” signal where only 4 stocks in the entire industry were holding their uptrend above the 20-week moving average.
Near-term key OVERSOLD threshold breach for Semis with only 4 stocks trading above 20-EMA in the industry.
Marked each bottom since 2023 for S&P and Nasdaq.
Bottomed already, or after NVDA reports?$SPX $QQQ $COMPQ $XLK $SMH $SOXX $NVDA $SPY $AMD $MU $SOXL pic.twitter.com/EjQ4fekIMi— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 19, 2025
Think of this like a rubber band stretched as far back as it can go. This extreme tension creates potential energy. Every time this specific signal has flashed since 2023, it marked a bottom for the major indices. The market was coiled tight, and the positive Nvidia news was simply the finger letting go, snapping price action back upward.
The Beach Ball Buoyancy
Simultaneously, the S&P 500 dipped below its 50-day moving average after a long streak of trading above it. While losing a key support level often triggers panic selling, history suggests this is a “fake out.” Quant data from @BlueKurtic shows that after such a long streak, the market typically reclaims this level in just 8 days with a negligible further drop of only -1.04%.
When $SPX breaks below 50-DMA after 100+ day streak above, SPX usually stabilizes quickly.
On avg. it takes 8 days to get back above 50DMA (range: 1 to 37 days) and average MAX DRAWDOWN before reclaiming it only -1.04%.
If you can't wait 8 days, and dont see opportunity…… pic.twitter.com/RSau1wKmvC
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 18, 2025
It’s comparable to holding a beach ball underwater. You can push it down (the dip below the average), but the natural buoyancy of the bull trend wants to push it back up immediately. If you panic and sell while the ball is submerged, you miss the rapid pop back to the surface.
The Fever Break
Perhaps the scariest chart of the week was the spike in Nasdaq New Lows, which hit their highest level since the market bottomed back in April. Seth Golden describes this not as a bearish breakdown, but as “symptomatic of a near-term bottom”.
Nasdaq New Lows are at the highest level since April Liberation Day.
Not an oversold indication, but symptomatic of near-term bottom. $COMPQ $SPX $QQQ $NDX $AAPL $AMZN $META $NYA $SPY pic.twitter.com/UwlBm3VFTC
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 18, 2025
Consider this the “fever breaking.” When a fever spikes, it’s the body’s violent reaction to kill off a virus before recovery begins. This spike in new lows was the market flushing out the last of the weak hands. It looks ugly in the moment, but it is often the final step before health returns.
Refueling at Base Camp
Finally, we look at the relationship between Growth ($QQQ) and Value ($SPY). Growth stocks had broken out to new highs but recently pulled back to “check back to the box”—essentially retesting their previous breakout level.
Breakout in Growth $QQQ vs Value $SPY and all-time high has now checked back to the box.
Would you be surprised 🤯 if this proves normal and to-be-expected check back before relaunching🚀 to yet more all-time highs, during AI boom?$SPX $COMPQ $NVDA $SMH $SOXX $AAPL $GOOGL pic.twitter.com/OCdEaZGcWl
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 19, 2025
Ideally, before a climber summits the final peak, they return to base camp one last time to check their gear. The market is doing the same. It broke out, and now it has returned to support to confirm the ground is solid before launching the next leg of the climb during this undeniable AI boom.
Dinner is READY 🍽️
If the previous charts were the mechanics of the bottom, this final chart is the historical green light. While the crowd treats a spiking VIX like a fire alarm—a signal to flee—the data reveals it’s actually the ultimate ‘dinner bell’ for smart money. When volatility accelerates this fast, the bottom isn’t just near; historically, it’s already here.”
Historically, when 10-wk ROC (middle panel) of $VIX rises above 50, you have your buying opportunity.
Arrows indicate bottoming in $SPX
3 – 6 months forward returns positive, EVERY. SINGLE. TIME in bull markets. Only negative once (Apr 2022)$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $NYA $UVXY… pic.twitter.com/gaWl8jFELo— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 18, 2025
The Verdict
The “Market Winds Are Shifting” report called for consolidation, and these charts confirm that the heavy lifting is likely finished. Semis are snapping back, the S&P is buoyant, the fever has broken in the Nasdaq, and Growth is actively refueling. The market isn’t breaking; it’s breathing.
QUOTE(S) OF THE WEEK
Investing quote of the day: pic.twitter.com/5ffuPQj6lc
— Meb Faber (@MebFaber) November 14, 2025
Maybe more true than ever before👇
@morganhousel pic.twitter.com/wKWSBC9j2U— Sash (@SashInvesting) November 14, 2025
‘NYC’ the Mamdani Bowdoin Experiment, a ‘Hate American Capitalism’ campaign, divides this nation biggest city to endure a hard lesson of history,…
In 1961 East Germany the (German Democratic Republic) remained Socialist until its reunification with West Germany in 1990 after… pic.twitter.com/i0sj8Ejw5B— David H (@JIMROInvest) November 15, 2025
A negative mind will never give you a positive life 💯
— Knowledge Is Money 💰 (@knowledgeimoney) November 15, 2025
Quote of the Day –
“What we anticipate seldom occurs, what we least expected generally happens.” – Benjamin Disraeli— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 19, 2025
Something everyone should remember:
Criticism is a cost of entry for excellence.
Jeff Bezos said it best: “If you absolutely can't tolerate critics, then don't do anything new or interesting.”
You’ll have more critics if you strive for excellence than if you settle for…
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) November 18, 2025
Warren Buffett, one of the greatest investors of all time, has built his legendary fortune not through quick bets but through patient, decades-long holdings that gradually compound into 10X, 20X, or even greater returns.
Most of his biggest winners—think Coca-Cola, American…
— Danny cheng (@dannycheng2022) November 20, 2025
TOP 10 TWEETS OF THE WEEK
New report out to 3FR clients gaming out the policy and investment implications of the "K-shaped" economy.
-Despite worries about December, easing bias intact.
-Housing is the best proxy for the "lower-K."
-Continue fading small cap rallies. pic.twitter.com/kNCMx1hz6R— 3Fourteen Research (@3F_Research) November 14, 2025
The S&P 500 is on track for its worst November since 2008. pic.twitter.com/bojdcUlsjp
— Brew Markets (@brewmarkets) November 18, 2025
🇺🇸 Valuations
US stocks are priced for perfection — valuations sitting at levels that rarely end well. Timing the turn is tricky, but when prices run this hot, even the slightest cool-down in fundamentals can burn
👉 https://t.co/14i5SQWa4L@markets $spx #spx #stocks #equity pic.twitter.com/oV3NqAGEbL— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) November 14, 2025
Technically, the late 1990’s was much more extreme than anything we have seen thus far. The chart below shows “detrended Bollinger Bands,” which is technical geek speak for how many standard deviations the S&P 500 is above or below its underlying trend. Back in the late 1990’s… pic.twitter.com/oMkr6JouVN
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) November 13, 2025
Today was the first day since April 7th that $QQQ traded down at least 1.5% intraday but finished the day positive. pic.twitter.com/A5TrlCOG5V
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 14, 2025
Boom 💥 that just happened!
S&P 500 stayed above 100-DMA every day from Jun to Oct.
EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. November delivered a positive return!
Back half of November could prove a strong rally to maintain a 100% quant!$SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NVDA $AAPL $SMH $NYA
h/t quant… pic.twitter.com/t6HmK6rwlL— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 15, 2025
Apple $AAPL avoiding extreme AI exposure is paying off ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/lqroAM1iqz
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) November 15, 2025
Worth thinking about why recessions have been shorter 🤔
One reason is counter-cyclical fiscal policy, where the deficit surges amid a recession (which also leads to a profits recovery)
Relevant now because we’re currently running massive deficits amid an expansion https://t.co/TRCpqAVnvK pic.twitter.com/luuGo1jym8
— Sonu Varghese (@sonusvarghese) November 15, 2025
Midterm Election $SPX 2026
Since 1942 From MTE Day🔹21 consecutive positive returns MTE Day to June 30
🔹14 double-digit $SPY returns
🔹6 positive return periods > than 20%
🔹Only 2 (1946/2014) with positive returns < than 5%
🔹Have chunk of cash dedicated Nov '26 – June '27… pic.twitter.com/yXxXIYDWE6— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 16, 2025
While some will look at this bearishly, others will utilize in planning for 2026.
Market character has shifted dramatically, and BIG PICTURE charts all confirm (Summation and HLL Indexes) a wind of change in the markets!
Double-digit correction probabilities rising forward 3-6… pic.twitter.com/bLHOnto67k
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 16, 2025
Get ready to hear a lot about this, but midterm years tend to see their ultimate low later in the year and have some of the largest intra-year corrections.
The good news? Since 1950, off those lows stocks have never been lower a year later and up more than 30% on average. pic.twitter.com/WuWr8vWCJN
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 16, 2025
How's market breadth?
Only one quarter of the S&P 1500 industry groups are still above their 10-week average.
That's the worst level since April. pic.twitter.com/8nB3GWtfls
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) November 15, 2025
Speculative assets are getting DUMPED!
Assets tied to the riskiest corners of the market, from momentum stocks to private credit lenders, are being sold off in tandem.
When risk appetite fades everywhere at once, that’s usually a sign of tightening liquidity.. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/ind8hlCQRF
— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) November 17, 2025
Pattern breakouts haven't worked in a few weeks in the $SPX, but neither have breakdowns.
The longer this persists, the bigger the next move. pic.twitter.com/LTG3ON9bTr
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) November 17, 2025
Midterm years deliver half the S&P 500’s average annual return and deeper drawdowns (-17.5% vs -13.7%). Second-term midterms averaged a big 20.9% gain for the market, but with only five cases, the base case remains a weaker midterm for stocks.
Inspiration: @RyanDetrick pic.twitter.com/1jnatwg871— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) November 17, 2025
”The AI Bubble” in perspective.
What if the doomsayers are right but they have been, and they continue, miss the last +30% of the ”bubble” for their told-you-so moment?
This is indeed what already happened most of this year. pic.twitter.com/9xBeVKbBX2
— Emre Akcakmak (@akcakmak) November 17, 2025
Everything changed yesterday.
Actually it was Monday night.
Apple DID NOT use GPU's to train their new Apple Intelligence products.
For the past few years Artificial Intelligence, the Large Language Models (LLM's) version of AI at least, has dominated the markets.
With… pic.twitter.com/3j8ar4nLqW
— Chris Dover (@ChrisDMacro) July 31, 2024
The Main Street Meter has a strong inverse relationship with future stock market returns. It has declined substantially suggesting the stock market is "younger" and more attractive than 22% of time since 1955! See my latest report for all the details at: https://t.co/cmZvbGqspf pic.twitter.com/TQXMzqI6kB
— Jim Paulsen (@jimwpaulsen) November 17, 2025
Dwight D. Eisenhower 1958 = 38% (cutting)
Lyndon B. Johnson 1966 = -13% (hiking)
Richard Nixon 1974 = -29% (hiking)
Ronald Reagan 1986 = 14.6% (cutting)
Bill Clinton 1998 = 27% (cutting)
George Bush 2006 = 14% (slow hike)
Barack Obama 2014 = 12% (pause)Monetary policy clear… https://t.co/84JyVHT5oV
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 18, 2025
There is a certain amount of ridiculous in suggesting fiscal policy and financial conditions are "augments for a rebound in the economy"
Currently living through the highest and most protracted ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY in history.
It's like saying tariffs don't create… https://t.co/OW29DZvuX1 pic.twitter.com/EuHJuTPR2Z
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 17, 2025
Bitcoin just ended its longest streak of days (219) ever without a 25% drawdown. pic.twitter.com/6ucD38jp5l
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) November 18, 2025
The Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run, with the index now rolling over just like the comparable period in late 1997. pic.twitter.com/jZN0S2Rkdq
— Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) (@DataTrekMB) November 18, 2025
Buying the S&P 500 when the VIX closes between 27.3 & 50.8 (the range from +1 to 4 standard deviations above the mean) has a good track record of delivering solid gains over the following month, 3 months, 6 months, and year. And win rates for these timeframes are all over 70%.
— Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) (@DataTrekMB) November 19, 2025
Still looks good 🫡🔥 https://t.co/FbN1f5bnRg pic.twitter.com/7WVJ1C5GN5
— Logan Mohtashami (@LoganMohtashami) November 19, 2025
$4B to $110B in operating income in less than 3 years.
Absolutely outrageous growth.$NVDA pic.twitter.com/LbkHhnBylj
— Fiscal.ai (@fiscal_ai) November 19, 2025
$NVDA on track to exit FY26 with gross margins in mid-70s + plan to sustain that level through FY27
"…we believe that as we keep working on cost improvements, cycle time, and mix, we will work to hold our gross margins in the mid-70s. That is our overall plan for gross margin"… pic.twitter.com/wlMfpHxHHH
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) November 19, 2025
$SPX just triggered a fresh Optex Bands exhaustion reading. The last time this signal fired was at the April low.
The daily swing is still DOWN, but this entire flush is happening inside structure, not breaking it.
Optex only fires when momentum reaches a true extreme, and this… pic.twitter.com/gY1akjjoSh— Mo (@optionflys) November 19, 2025
what a flip https://t.co/n9F4hlKbRH
— Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸 (@cfromhertz) November 19, 2025
TOY Barometer (Turn Of Year) begins today and ends January 19, 2026.
If $SPX gains +3% or > during TOY Barometer a bullish signal is triggered with a SPX positivity rate of 96% and avg. return of +16.5% since 1950.
(only 2 failed signals in 1987/2018)$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA… pic.twitter.com/Ul1fzZTr3D
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 19, 2025
I’m honestly impressed that some of you are still around and still perma bears this many years later
— Chris Dover (@ChrisDMacro) November 20, 2025
Of course that is your contention. You’re a first-year AI skeptic. You just finished reading Andrew Ross Sorkin’s 1929 and now you think we’re reliving the Roaring Twenties with GPUs. You will cling to that until next month when you hear Jim Chanos talk about “unsustainable… pic.twitter.com/4G2Q4akBHf
— A Capital (@ACapitalLP) November 19, 2025
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