Market Mania - FinX Weekly Top 10 #23

“Be in the business of following a time tested strategy, managing cash wisely, leaning into your resources, asking questions, getting feedback; that’s savvy investing/thoughtful management.

Just because they are on TV does not make them qualified…they are always worried about the down, the next big drawdown… if you never POSITIVELY embrace down, you will endlessly chase the market trying to circumvent the next drawdown.”

– SETH GOLDEN, CHIEF EQUITY MARKET STRATEGIST AT FINOMGROUP.COM

(CONTRIBUTOR/PREMIUM MEMBERS ONLY)

85% of the stuff you worry about NEVER HAPPEN

For the 15% of things that do Happen, it wasn't as bad as you feared it to be and/or you managed it better than you assumed you could.

Taking risk is about knowing bad things happen, being scared, but doing it scared anyway!… pic.twitter.com/wJNp2QKGG4

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 17, 2025

Howard Marks of OakTree Capital:

Financial media, perpetually pessimistic, perpetually wrong!https://t.co/zRM2dWdXdQ pic.twitter.com/r2mhvX9tpX

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) September 7, 2022

MID-WEEK SUMMARY

THURSDAY, JANUARY 8TH, 2026

Welcome to Market Mania #23!

As we emerge from CES week in Las Vegas and the recent Venezuela flair up/Trump Tweet Extravaganza, the S&P 500 (SPX) has officially recorded its first all-time high (ATH) of the 2026 midterm election year on January 6th, validating our long-term structural bull thesis established by the April 2025 Zweig Breadth Thrust. While this milestone is a psychological victory, the internal composition of the rally suggests a POTENTIAL, significant stochastic regime shift that active portfolio managers looking to outperform must navigate with precision.

The Great Internal Divergence: RSPT vs. Mega-Cap Concentration

Despite the achievement of a new record high this week confirmed by NYSE A/D line, the market is currently grappling with a stark bifurcation following November’s NYSE hi-lo logic reading above 1.6. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology ETF ($RSPT) recently outperformed Roundhill MAG7 ETF ($MAGS) by more than 3% on the day yesterday, highlighting a persistent relative weakness in the Mega-cap complex. From a quantitative standpoint, the math of index concentration is uncompromising: if we cannot get the top 100 stocks iShares S&P100 ETF ($OEF), let alone the top 10, working in concert, the probability of the index sustaining double-digit gains for 2026 is severely constrained. Small, equal weights, and even mid-caps, cumulatively, lack the power to drive the cap-weighted S&P 500 to our (not-yet cemented) 7,600 price objective without leadership from the heavyweights.

NYSE Hi-Lo Logic Index crossed 1.6 on Friday for first time in 6 months. In past cases, S&P 500 ’s 12-month max drawdown averaged 13%, with 17% from peak-to-trough. It typically took 168 days for market to peak. Not bearish, but a sign of a volatile stock year ahead.
💡@SethCL pic.twitter.com/qbmYNT7ofY

— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) November 11, 2025

Fed cutting cycles WITHOUT a recession:

✅ Large caps lead
☑️Mid caps follow
🚨Small caps LAG
🔶Only cutting cycles where Small Caps lead is WITH
recession$SPX $SPY $QQQ $MID $NYA $IWM $RTY $RUT $DIA pic.twitter.com/gEU06UYq0d

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) August 26, 2025

AND THE ONLY WAY TO PREDICT A RECESSION IS VIA THE RECESSION ITSELF!

Yes, Im talking to you, Mr(s). Market Timer!!!

Bookmark this for later and join https://t.co/Tmx71i7wRS if we’re right and those 7600 price targets don’t get achieved by EOY… $SPX

(Trust me, we hope we’re wrong considering we’re permabulls who pickup pennies on the dollar every day and SHORT $VXX $UVXY)… 😂

H/T @SethCL https://t.co/V7EALfRRDr pic.twitter.com/M4VaPsBRry

— Finom Group AYNI Luis Solórzano (@aynirealtor) January 7, 2026

This friction is largely driven by the “Asset-Heavy Transition.” These dominant tech firms are shifting from high-margin, asset-light models to capital-intensive entities, embarking on a staggering $400 billion annual AI infrastructure buildout. Historical capital cycle theory warns that such massive capex booms typically result in overinvestment, excess competition, and inferior stock returns according to Kai Wu, founder of Sparkline Capital.

The Magnificent 7 are moving from asset-light to asset-heavy business models.

Spending plans for Big Tech now look similar to the typical utility stock.

(h/t @ckaiwu) pic.twitter.com/s5fDj9C5TQ

— Phil Rosen (@philrosenn) October 24, 2025

Historical Guardrails and Breadth Signals

Skeptics may view a single early-year ATH as a exhaustion signal, but history suggests otherwise. Since 1929, the market has almost never struck one solitary all-time high and stopped there for the remainder of the year. The only exception is 2022 – notably, also a Midterm election year like 2026.

The 1st all-time high of calendar year 2026 has been achieved.

There has only been 1 other time the market did not go on to achieve at least 3 all-time highs in the calendar year.

There is a 98% probability at least 3 all-time highs would be achieved in 2026.$SPX $ES_F $SPY… pic.twitter.com/UCdtZL52BE

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 6, 2026

Our constructive intermediate-term outlook is anchored by market breadth. On January 6th this year, the NYSE Advance-Decline (A/D) line struck a new all-time high. Historically, this leading indicator precedes the ultimate bull market price peak by a median of 30 weeks, if not already, (typically resulting in index performance 5% higher at that point) and at least 8 more weeks historically speaking… or could also be 120 weeks and a new record, stay open-minded folks! 😉. This “breadth leads price” dynamic suggests the current primary trend has sufficient durability to carry into the second half of 2026, absent endogeny/exogeny. (Sep 21, 1976 / February 19, 2020) 👀👇

How important is an NYSE A/D Line all-time high confirming $SPX all-time high?

Only 2 times has SPX peaked with a confirming A/D Line

The median lead time to actual SPX peak is 30 wks, with additional gains of +5.6% or SPX 7,250 at least.$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $NYA $AAPL $NVDA… pic.twitter.com/IkId9AdGMh

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 12, 2025

The January Paradox and 2026 Catalysts

We are currently monitoring the January “3-up/3-down” barometer pattern. Since 2008, the S&P 500 has expressed three negative, followed by 3 consecutive positive Januarys (2023–2025), which quantitatively positions 2026 to be the first of three consecutive negative January return years. However, trend changes TYPICALLY occur in the first two weeks of January, frequently shifting from bearish to bullish not vice versa. If the negative January pattern fails this year, it would serve as a strongly bullish indication that more powerful forces—such as the historical SCHEDULED fund flows since 1984, which affirm January as a “stand out” and the strongest month for equity mutual fund purchases as % of AUM—are overwhelming historical cyclicality.

January Barometer pattern remains!

As previously outlined, the 3 ⬆️ and 3⬇️ January $SPX return pattern should've delivered 3rd straight positive return.

Stage is set for 2026 (Midterm), 2027, 2028 to deliver negative January Barometers. What do we have for February patterns?… pic.twitter.com/1Jv9RnnwOV

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) February 2, 2025

Citadel's Rubner: Markets enter the year with momentum, but January brings a distinct set of dynamics. Capital is being deployed, positioning is rebuilding, and volatility is compressed even as the January catalyst calendar ramps up.

Historically, January stands out as the… pic.twitter.com/HDOo6WY4m9

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) January 7, 2026

Since we mentioned strength in consumer balance sheet.. quickly!

Household cash as a percent of Total Financial Assets is at post-Great Depression, post-WWII, post-GFC, and post-COVID level highs.

Tell me more about the stressed, strained, and stretched consumer. More like strapped with cash #consumer #economy #investing #Macro #SPX500
h/t… pic.twitter.com/HyAgpJTzgX

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 7, 2026

Adding to this constructive complexity are unique 2026 catalysts not present in previous cycles. The FIFA World Cup and the 250th SemiQuincentennial Anniversary of the United States in 2026 are likely to act as significant sentiment and spending tailwinds heading into midterm elections in November.

There’s growing concern about a K-shaped economy and understandably so. But this isn’t new. During Internet boom, S&P 500 stayed strong even as consumer sentiment weakened. Eventually, sentiment recovered and markets moved even higher. Market leads sentiment during innovation. pic.twitter.com/OQI3vO9fAb

— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) December 21, 2025

The Turn of Year (TOY) Expiration

The magnitude of our 2026 gains will be further defined by the TOY Barometer, which expires on January 19th. We are looking to avoid a “Bearish” signal (negative returns from Nov 19 to Jan 19). While Midterm years are historically “truculent” and average a -17.5% correction, it is vital to note that the S&P 500 has never posted three consecutive negative Midterm years. Since both 2018 and 2022 were negative, the historical probability favors a positive annual close for 2026.

TOY Barometer (Turn Of Year) begins today and ends January 19, 2026.

If $SPX gains +3% or > during TOY Barometer a bullish signal is triggered with a SPX positivity rate of 96% and avg. return of +16.5% since 1950.

(only 2 failed signals in 1987/2018)$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA… pic.twitter.com/Ul1fzZTr3D

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 19, 2025

📢Boom, Midterm mic 🎤 drop!

Midterm years can be quite volatile, with average correction -17%+

But did you know there has never been 3 consecutive negative $SPX $COMPQ return Midterm-election years?

2018 and 2022 were both negative, if the pattern holds for 2026, positive… pic.twitter.com/c7KQn5tHb6

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 7, 2025

Tactical Synthesis: We maintain our “1% for 1%+” trading strategy to lower cost averages on core holdings. We specifically favor Health Care (XLV)—our “2026 bride’s maid trade of the year”—which is positioned for outperformance as the market rotates through this “Asset-Heavy” transition in tech.

Bottom Line: Higher-highs remain the base case, but the broadening of the market and/or basing of 6,800 is in our view required to validate the 7,600 12-month potential objective. Manage your cash wisely; the trend is your friend, but don’t fall in love with the trend. Bull markets are built on the backs of bear markets.

CHART(S) OF THE WEEK

🏆 TODAY’S CHART OF THE WEEK WAS SHARED BY PETER MALLOUK (@PeterMallouk):

📈 CHART OF THE WEEK: S&P500 Index Price vs. S&P500 Earnings (Data via Robert Shiller: 1900-2025)

This week’s chart delivers a clean, non-negotiable thesis: over the long run, the stock market is just an earnings chart with mood swings. Stock prices and corporate earnings have moved together with roughly a 98% correlation since inception, meaning almost all of the market’s long-term return profile is explained by the path of profits, not narratives. That’s the anchor for everything else in this cycle.

125 years of market history tell a simple story…
Stocks and earnings move together with a 98% correlation.
The short run is all about noise.
The long run is all about profits.
Speculators chase noise. Investors follow profits.
Remember that in 2026. pic.twitter.com/CBMCondS2R

— Peter Mallouk (@PeterMallouk) January 6, 2026

Earnings and the no‑room‑for‑error setup

Into 2026, that anchor is being stress‑tested by how aggressive the earnings growth bar has become. Consensus expects roughly mid‑teens S&P 500 EPS growth for 2026—near 15%—on top of already strong gains in 2024–2025. That’s not a “nice to have” embedded in the outlook; it’s the investor assumption that keeps the chart’s price line glued to its earnings line.

At the same time, index P/Es have quietly contracted from post‑pandemic peaks even as prices made new highs, forcing the market to “grow into” prior valuations rather than float on multiple expansion alone. Put differently: the easy part of derating is done; from here, upside depends on actually delivering that 15% EPS trajectory, sales growth, and margin expansion.

Narrow breadth has challenged active funds over the last three years

% of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the index (1990-2025) pic.twitter.com/qVWXWHzLh6

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) January 6, 2026

Valuations, confidence, and why this isn’t 2000

Despite that contraction, the forward S&P 500 P/E still sits well above its 5‑ and 10‑year averages, in the low‑20s on most estimates. That’s not cheap, but it’s not dot‑com either. Several key distinctions matter:

•Balance sheets are strong; leverage is near cycle lows and cash levels at households and corporates are elevated, creating a buffer against shocks.

•Much of the “expensive” look is really the market pricing higher certainty in future cash flows and margins, particularly around AI, reshoring, and capex‑driven productivity.

In this framework, there is effectively no room for earnings error, but there is room for higher valuations—if investor confidence rises alongside realized results. That shows up as: narrower risk premia, willingness to pay a richer multiple for each dollar of dependable earnings, and a lower discount rate applied to long-duration growth.

What doesn’t drive the long‑run outcome

The chart also exposes several myths:

•Buybacks: Over the last two decades, net repurchases and total return show far weaker linkage than earnings, revenues, and margins. Buybacks are an amplifier, not the engine.

•Inflation: Within a given year, inflation’s trend dictates Fed behavior, sector rotation, and real vs. nominal winners. Over decades, it is mostly noise relative to the earnings line; the only durable way to beat inflation is to stay invested in productive assets, not to trade macro prints and commodities like silver or energy ie PRICE TAKERS. Thats not investing folks, thats sumthin’ else! INVEST IN PRICE SETTERS.

•Market timing: Volatility clusters; the biggest up days live next to the biggest down days. Missing just a handful of the best days—usually embedded in correction windows—crushes long‑term returns. Trying to time recessions, or to game exogenous vs. endogenous shocks, mostly compounds opportunity cost and emotional IQ damage rather than adding edge, especially when facing fools gold and you get rewarded for a bad discipline.

When you stitch this together, the chart of the week becomes the spine of my message:

•Structurally, the earnings–price linkage (98% correlation) tells you the secular bull remains intact as long as EPS keeps grinding higher.

•Tactically, contracted but still‑elevated P/Es + ~15% 2026 EPS expectations create a narrow, unforgiving path: either companies execute, or multiples take the hit. – 7️⃣

•The only way to both beat inflation and respect the chart’s history is to remain invested, manage size and leverage, and let process, not forecasts, govern exposure.

Failing to plan around that reality, the domination of earnings over everything else, is planning to fight a 125‑year tape with anecdotes.

The chart is blunt: respect profits, respect losses, respect time in the market, and treat everything else as noise that either widens or narrows the gap between price and earnings, but never changes the fundamental relationship.

BONUS:

Broadening the horizon back to the last 6 years …

Margin expansion a bigger contributor to returns than multiples 🙌

S&P 500 up 132%

Of which 👇

Sales growth: +58 pp
Margin Expansion: +28 pp
Multiple expansion: +26 pp
Dividends: +20 pp

@CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick pic.twitter.com/D2450UnO5D

— Sonu Varghese (@sonusvarghese) January 1, 2026

Price Target Math update

8-10% $SPX upside: SPX must exceed current 2026 EPS estimate OR investors pay 24X or > for $310 EPS

SPX 6860 = 22.1X P/E
SPX 7000 = 22.5X P/E
SPX 7200 = 23.2X P/E
SPX 7400 = 23.9X P/E

$315 EPS at SPX 7400 = 23.5X P/E

Wonder why 2015 was flat after 3… pic.twitter.com/dqLSXWYwMW

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 3, 2026

For any given calendar year, VALUATION has no correlation w/S&P500 $SPX 12-mnth returns. But..

As time progresses, VALUATION becomes a GREATER indicator of returns.

We are now in year 4 of AI valuation surge, whereby the argument that valuations dont matter… starts to MATTER… pic.twitter.com/v3dHgBATUO

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 4, 2026

The only, absolute only way 8,000+ occurs…

Math:

EPS $310 = 8000 or P/E 25.8X
EPS $315 = 8000 or P/E 25.4X
EPS $320 = 8000 or P/E 25X

Wall Street must be wrong on EPS by 5% or greater and/or the P/E must get to a Bubble-level.

go with God🙏$SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $NYA… pic.twitter.com/0z4fOfU5gj

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 3, 2026

QUOTE(S) OF THE WEEK

One year from now, you'll either be complaining that you never got started or celebrating all that you've done. The choice is yours.

— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) January 1, 2026

January 1 has always been a great resetting of risk. Listen 👂pic.twitter.com/P5ehVUF1Ug

— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) January 1, 2026

“There's rarely more or less economic uncertainty, just changes in how ignorant people are to potential risks… by definition, the future is always inherently uncertain.”

– @morganhousel https://t.co/ra24LrgseK pic.twitter.com/lFS19Ak7OK

— Finom Group AYNI Luis Solórzano (@aynirealtor) January 1, 2026

Underrated truth: People who want to be in your life make it obvious. They reach out. They follow through. They create time. The most honest form of communication isn’t words, it’s effort. And the absence of effort says a lot. Listen closely.

— Blake Burge (@blakeaburge) December 23, 2025

Gratitude is fuel. The more you acknowledge what's good, the more good you create.

— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) January 1, 2026

From Oct.

BBG: “It always seems like a sucker’s bet to put any money into the market when it’s trading at all-time highs,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists. “As the seemingly intelligent pundits will say, the easy money has been made (even though they were never out… https://t.co/gMZFyq6zDY pic.twitter.com/n2v9uDyKh7

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) January 1, 2026

Quote of the Day –
“The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.” – Socrates

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) January 2, 2026

WoW!! 🤯

📢The Leuthold Group breaks from Wall Street and says the "quiet stuff" out LOUD!!

There's no such thing as M2 correlation with stock prices, nor has there ever been. "Old school measures like money supply…to time toss to the trash heap.."$SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA $NDX pic.twitter.com/robC6IUYMH

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) March 13, 2024

Far too many people confuse and conflate the concepts of correlation, coincidence and causation… it may be because of alliterations?

Remember, ice cream sales do not cause shark attacks!#investing #TRADINGTIPS #tradingpsychology pic.twitter.com/9DfLSNLnkr

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) July 12, 2023

There is NO relationship between Fed's balance sheet and the stock market. Not just during the current cycle, but during any cycle as shown by the accompanying charts.

Ice cream sales and shark attacks increase when weather is hot, but neither cause each other. @michaelsantoli pic.twitter.com/1lI9IiJmGx

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) July 20, 2023

Goldman (Coppersmith): Despite the very weak breadth Dec 31st, the more important development now is not how weak it has been, but that it has stopped deteriorating.

By our measure, breadth appears to be bottoming and beginning to heal, even if it’s not “good” yet. The distance… pic.twitter.com/QelDtBToO0

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) January 3, 2026

As we enter 2026, always remember 😺 pic.twitter.com/Du4gIdAKCL

— UVXYTrader (@michaellistman) January 3, 2026

pic.twitter.com/PEF3ai2SgG

— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) January 4, 2026

3 Truths:

Just because you can be contrarian doesnt mean it's repeatedly profitable to be contrarian.

Just because you can look at a 1-minute chart doesnt mean it can predict next minute/day/week.

Just because it's scary to think "different this time", doesnt mean it's not.…

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 26, 2024

What’s in the box 📦?

Always consider, nobody can hand you a box of price targets, forward recession probabilities, or risk appetite. These are man-made emotional constructs that effort a belief that we can control and predict market outcomes! #investingtips

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 9, 2024

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson on the "surprise for '26" pic.twitter.com/JkX4sYh6Op

— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) January 5, 2026

Jeff Bezos literally dropped the most underrated winning principle pic.twitter.com/OUMIyINGmX

— Kyle (@0xkyle__) January 5, 2026

"Net profit margins for the benchmark index are expected to hit 13.9% [in 2026], the highest since FactSet began tracking the metric in 2008."@_JoshSchafer pic.twitter.com/UG2Uaw7nj6

— Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) January 6, 2026

Just for the record, Silver and Platinum seasonality is still very favorable. A good time to invoke:
Jay’s Trading Maxim #121: When price and seasonals align, it might be a sign. @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/owxsDwfVOj

— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) January 6, 2026

Applies to markets (stay in the now): "Focus on the next right action. Most stress comes from living everywhere except the present." https://t.co/UukVd418zg

— Chris Ciovacco (@CiovaccoCapital) January 6, 2026

Savor the little victories as much as you criticize the little mistakes.

— James Clear (@JamesClear) January 6, 2026

When it comes to personal finance, some may get caught up in absolutes.

"Never do that."
"Always max this."

But optionality is so powerful. Most decisions are not binary.

It does not have to be all or nothing, and purposefully choosing to maintain flexibility doesn't mean…

— Cliff Cornell (@cliffcornell_) January 6, 2026

pic.twitter.com/KwqNAxcPrl

— Finom Group AYNI Luis Solórzano (@aynirealtor) January 6, 2026

Nothing gains value faster than something you no longer have. pic.twitter.com/ZCicWw7h0L

— Peter Mallouk (@PeterMallouk) January 7, 2026

Discipline looks a lot like obsession to someone who doesn't have any. pic.twitter.com/zXB1tZnqa9

— Schaeffer's Investment Research (@schaeffers) January 7, 2026

TOP 10 TWEETS OF THE WEEK

Breakout soon?

Over the past 3 months, the S&P 500 has closed within an unusually tight 1% range (6840, 6849, & 6845).

Historically, when $SPX compresses like this for 3 consecutive months, it was almost always higher 2–4 months later.

h/t @SJD10304 pic.twitter.com/cGdC12clEj

— Subu Trade (@SubuTrade) January 2, 2026

S&P 500

Heading into 26, earnings trajectory remains one of the more bullish factors.

In general, Q4 EPS estimates track lower from 9/30 through year end. But, this year Q4 EPS keep rising…

Post-GFC, only 2020 (coming off covid) saw Q4 EPS rise this much at year end. pic.twitter.com/GiNYcuvAAA

— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) December 31, 2025

1987: Prediction 2026 pic.twitter.com/HpPFQzh0lh

— New Low Observer (@NewLowObserver) December 30, 2025

The average bear market lasts 14 months and is followed by a 70-month bull market. JPMAM pic.twitter.com/G4leGLG4Tw

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) December 26, 2025

In the five years leading into the Tech Bubble peak, the forward P/E on the S&P 500 Tech Sector expanded by 43x. In the past five years it has contracted by -1x👀📊

Via: @mattcerminaro @ https://t.co/S3UVy7NPlh🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/nj69KlGj2x

— The Compound (@TheCompoundNews) December 24, 2025

There is no such thing as "a leadership change" in cap-weighted markets.

Technology has led the market 87% of all market cycles, only lagging in 3 of 23 market cycles.

1990 was the last market cycle Technology did not lead market performance. $SPX $QQQ $SPY $XLK $SMH $SOXX… pic.twitter.com/LVbyd9Ns0p

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 1, 2026

Larry Williams

Reminder, he is now looking for a bear market move to commence in 1H 2026.

Economic-related cycle forecast less practical, given the fiscal and monetary imputations.$SPX $DIA $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $NVDA $SOXX $TLT $BTC $AAPL $VIX pic.twitter.com/loOaAhDYg0

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 1, 2026

You may recall former Federal Chair Alan Greenspan warning of “irrational exuberance” in his infamous 1996 speech. But S&P 500 $SPX soared another +116% before 2000 peak. US Tech skyrocketed another +384%.

Don’t try to time the top; COSTLY exercise!$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM… https://t.co/nQs1A1Q4hL pic.twitter.com/opCBc7ZAtj

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 1, 2026

S&P 500 gained 16%+ in 2025 despite 18.9% drawdown, marking three consecutive years of 15%+ gains. The only other instance since 1950 was the late-1990s tech boom, when 1995–1999 delivered 15%+ returns for SPX without a single drawdown reaching correction threshold of 20%. $SPX pic.twitter.com/hU1nrGn5bT

— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) January 1, 2026

Year 6 of a President in office has been extremely strong for stocks.

Never lower and up nearly 21% on average. pic.twitter.com/nEYq7MmnEt

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 31, 2025

SPX 5-year analogs – top 10 (based on highest correlation).

The usual caveat applies: these inputs represent only a small weighting in our broader framework.

But we don't ignore them. pic.twitter.com/qcERWUu1P5

— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) December 31, 2025

What nailing 🔨 it looks like:

You'll never hear an economist on TV suggest that households should or would default or prove delinquent on their debt on purpose, but it's literally the most beneficial outcome in post-covid era.

Checkable household deposits at record highs!… pic.twitter.com/EeSnrnK4YG

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) November 17, 2025

As much of 2025 as will fit on one page. Source: Avantis pic.twitter.com/w7tV5cE3PM

— Peter Mallouk (@PeterMallouk) January 1, 2026

Larry Williams Bitcoin $BTC Trust 2026 Cycle Forecast

Bottom in Q1 2026 is a decisive "Buy" point with significant rally that ultimately gets sold. No lower-low and another significant buy point in late Q3 followed by another significant rally to new highs.$GBTC $IBIT $ETH… pic.twitter.com/dnkPuo2YS0

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 2, 2026

During the post-GFC uptrend in Bershire Hathaway cash holdings and since 2017 at least, $SPX has returned greater than +200%.

Berkshire Hathaway cash is not an SPX indicator, despite headlines and fear-mongering fools.$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $NVDA $SOXX $AAPL $META $TSLA $BTC… https://t.co/CxUH9I58oD pic.twitter.com/TtQ4a0gVJa

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 2, 2026

Several concepts are clear when viewing "smoothed recession probabilities"

1 recession probabilities nonexistent into '26
2 no warning signals, only spikes
3 spikes identified w/in grey realized recession zones
4 no such thing as leading indicators
5 all recessions caused by… pic.twitter.com/cwq8C9WKuU

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 2, 2026

2025 saw less dominance from the Mag 7

S&P 500: +17.9%
Mag 7: 7.5 %-pts (pp)
Rest: 10.4 pp

Vs

2023
SP500: 26.3%
Mag 7: 16.3 pp
Rest: 10.0 pp

2024
SP500: 25%
Mag 7: 13.2 pp
Rest: 11.0 pp

Also, $GOOG & $NVDA stood tall amongst Mag 7 in 2025@CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick pic.twitter.com/cyS38SfkjO

— Sonu Varghese (@sonusvarghese) January 2, 2026

Mag 7 CapEx has more than doubled since the launch of ChatGPT. Yet, revenue generated per $1 of CapEx is roughly back to pre-AI boom levels. Notably, $NVDA is the most efficient, with the lowest CapEx in the group but the highest revenue per dollar of CapEx. $AAPL $META $TSLA pic.twitter.com/XnG6yODv3v

— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) November 28, 2025

I like how the bubble-bursting calls accompany Great Recession forecast!

So kindly allow me to remind those when the Tech bubble burst in 2000, there was only a recession called after 9/11 and never 2 consecutive negative GDP prints.

Run tell dat’dawg!

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 2, 2026

How long do momentum regimes last? Longer than one might suspect. SPX probably won’t peak until late-2026 or longer. At least by this reckoning. pic.twitter.com/ft3uOhDm9q

— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) January 2, 2026

S&P 500 performance after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes higher for eight consecutive months.
A “sure thing?” Of course not.
Favorable “weight of the evidence?” Decide for yourself.
h/t: @SubuTrade @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/caQQI164E7

— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) January 2, 2026

What matters most to $SPX is NOTT the absolute level of M2 Money Supply, but rather the TREND.

Annualized monthly return is 6X > when M2 is rising vs. falling. Heads-up: M2 been trending higher since May 2023. $QQQ $DIA $SPY $NDX $RTY pic.twitter.com/wDCmDXUT0U

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 10, 2024

Most past bull mkts began w/M2 growth near 0️⃣ or positive. In Oct 2022, bull mkt began w/ M2 supply CONTRACTING in previous year by almost -6%

No such thing as brrrrrrrrr mkts but demonstration as to how fintwit can be hazardous to your portfolio aplenty $SPX $SPY @jimwpaulsen pic.twitter.com/WOTmrfgczA

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) April 7, 2024

Only once has a bull market ended in the fourth year.

Do you think this time will be number two? pic.twitter.com/jrwBn7rWZG

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 19, 2025

Midterm years have historically been among the more challenging phases of the U.S. equity cycle, often characterized by elevated volatility and less persistent trends. Seasonal patterns in the S&P 500 suggest that while the year frequently begins on a constructive footing, early… pic.twitter.com/0Q3WMAZRp4

— WallStreetCourier (@WallStCourier) January 3, 2026

After all the shouting and handwringing, 2025 turned out to be a pretty good year for investors. The median return of 8 major asset classes was 10%. 7 of 8 gained at least 5%, the most since 2019. @NDR_Research pic.twitter.com/mcVAS05QmF

— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) January 3, 2026

Cool chart showing the best performing sector by year since 1990. Actually pretty average gains for the best sector (Comm. Svcs) over the last two years. pic.twitter.com/YOhtmuETZS

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) January 4, 2026

In this year’s investor survey, we asked a random question about how you would rate yourself as a driver. Basically everyone thinks they’re a great driver. Need confident drivers for the roads to run smoothly, so this makes sense! pic.twitter.com/FWRtxzxNub

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) January 4, 2026

pic.twitter.com/w4eEPS9VmL

— ★ (@thematrixwizard) January 3, 2026

Average TAX refund set to take a giant leap in 2026 and post the #OBBA.

Tailwind for 1H 2026 economic growth…Or simply offsets negative impact if another govt. shutdown?
Can Republicans afford 2 got. shutdowns in less than 3-months… in #Midtermelection year?#economy… pic.twitter.com/UWCxZ8HXfd

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 4, 2026

The "Mystery Broker", Journey 1 Advisors Dan Snyder outlines at least 21 checked boxes signaling an END to the Secular BULL market within 2 years.

Side note: over the years, i've often argued against some of Mystery Broker's short-term calls disseminated by @michaelsantoli Every… pic.twitter.com/YDglFl4USC

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 4, 2026

If you’re wondering what might happen to the stock market on Monday let me remind you it almost never cares about geopolitical crisis.

It only felt 6% during the Cuban missile crisis.

— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) January 3, 2026

VIX closed LOWER than its open value for 8 straight days and $VIX was < than 15, a sign of persistent intraday VOL selling, investor optimism.

Since 1990, there were 15 occurrences. $SPX was higher 93% of the time 3M later and 100% of the time 9M and 12M later.

Upcoming… pic.twitter.com/l3GXVhtB9c

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 4, 2026

If 4-year Cycle for Bitcoin $BTC is no longer a thing (Tom Lee/Cathie Wood), you'll get no help from a Midterm-election year either…

Worst performing year for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general has been Midterm years.$SPX $IBIT $SPY $ETH $QQQ $BMNR
h/t @AlmanacTrader pic.twitter.com/Aa27crTbEW

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 26, 2025

OIL

I've been bearish and have argued that stretched positioning is not enough to flip bullish.

However, MM short positioning is now at a multi-decade high and the negative sentiment surrounding the VZ developments is overblown.

Will be watching for bottom signals in Q1. pic.twitter.com/3YNhlgDBYI

— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) January 4, 2026

So far, so good!

After FOMC begins rate cutting cycle, absent a recession, mrkts have been higher every single 1 – 12 months forward periods. Including 2024 and 2025 cycles. Closing $SPX value after 1st cut Sept 17, 2025 was 6,600.

SPX should be > than 6,600 come Mar 17, 2026.… pic.twitter.com/gu145qkz63

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 1, 2026

On a total return basis since 1871 in years ending in 6, S&P was up 80% of the time (12 out of 15) on avg. by +9.55%, median +11.14%.

In year 2 of the US Presidential Cycle, the takeaways are similar.$SPX $SPY $QQQ $NYA $RUT $DIA $SOXX $NVDA $VOO h/t @neilksethi pic.twitter.com/HgMtiN3RSD

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 17, 2025

So you're thinking Tech $XLK relative to S&P500 $SPX came this far only to turn back now… after 25 years… really?

Draw your cup and handle humans, draw….

BIG BREAKOUT BREWING IN THE CUP?$AAPL $SPY $QQQ $NDX $NVDA $SOXX $AMD $MU pic.twitter.com/htWiZ6ciBk

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 26, 2025

A massive VOLUME SPIKE is usually the calling card that a bottom has been found, price has been flushed and readying to renew uptrend!$BTC $ETH $IBIT $GBTC $OBTC $SOL $GLD $MSTR pic.twitter.com/YSoFgzjDNd

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 5, 2026

Larry Williams on Apple cycle forecast:

Although shares of $AAPL are expected to elicit a goodly amount of volatility, that volatility forecasts significantly higher prices in 2026, according to the cycle forecast.

Should benefit Tech sector as year progresses as well.$SPX… pic.twitter.com/m7lCqVjUMC

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 5, 2026

Charting the US economy's path: In 2023 & 2024, the economy surprised everyone, forcing significant forecast upgrades. For 2025 & 2026, things are calming down. Expectations for the next two years are now identical, signaling a return to steadier 2% growth. pic.twitter.com/NkeMzbAMbO

— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) January 5, 2026

Yeah man…We've been discussing these things for a while. Simpatico🤝https://t.co/WJsTaMRxzn

— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) January 5, 2026

#bitcoin A huge test to start 2026. pic.twitter.com/gUTTmK9s9K

— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) January 5, 2026

Can’t remember the last time commodity tickers were the top three mentioned on r/wallstreetbets pic.twitter.com/q9DniQQeUV

— Luke Kawa (@LJKawa) January 5, 2026

When S&P 500 gains 15%+ in prior year, January returns tend to be muted. Since 1950, average Jan performance following strong years has been near flat with 48% positivity. If January turns weak, it wouldn’t be unusual for market as investors lock in prior-year stock gains. $SPX https://t.co/GOI5Ju1RbZ pic.twitter.com/0e7wrfCt9U

— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) January 5, 2026

Rest-of-world has lots of proving to do. #WatchingPaintDry https://t.co/LFStuQ4uhn pic.twitter.com/dZ13lxtedM

— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) January 5, 2026

BoA (Ciana) – Looking specifically at Year 2 of the Presidential cycle, January has been up 58% of the time with an average gain of 0.80% (vs 62% and 1.19% for all year), but if we zoom in on since 1970, it’s up just 36% of the time with an average loss of -1.77% (vs 59% and… https://t.co/OPhfFJnsmV pic.twitter.com/FcimIXoOV5

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) January 5, 2026

While the first trading day of the year has had little predictive power for how the S&P 500 performs the rest of the year, 2021-2025 saw negative first-day returns four of five times, each yielding positive annual results.

Read today's Morning Lineup at https://t.co/jlWNu7yVHd pic.twitter.com/HR1C4BtrXe

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) January 5, 2026

From the pre-Covid peak in Feb 2020:

Interest rates are up a lot

Valuations are a little higher (not much)

The stock market has doubled pic.twitter.com/wbqa0XfgEQ

— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) January 5, 2026

Similar to how over 90% of Apple's market cap came came after Steve Jobs stepped down as CEO. $AAPL https://t.co/u5xUKsGFfM

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) January 5, 2026

Here’s another way to look at the history of tight credit spreads.

Today puts us in the 149–199 day bucket historically.

What’s notable in that range:

• 6M returns: ~+3–4%
• 12M returns: ~+8–9%
• % positive (6–12M): ~75–85%

The data doesn’t show stress here.

Problems tend… pic.twitter.com/1mkhIdMJbK

— Sean D. Emory (@_SeanDavid) January 5, 2026

Credit spreads have now been below 400 bps for ~163 days.

Some will argue that’s a warning sign.

History suggests the opposite. Here’s S&P 500 and when credit spreads hit a 163 day streak of sub 400 bps.

Streaks like this have typically marked the early phase of spread… pic.twitter.com/CHlQuFsJmw

— Sean D. Emory (@_SeanDavid) January 5, 2026

U. Mich. Consumer Sentiment has fallen below 20 in a year only twice since 1952. It dipped below 15 just 7 other times. Small sample, but the S&P 500 was positive in 6 of 7 cases (+17.15% avg). Extreme pessimism often marks peak fear and improving forward returns. $SPX $SPY https://t.co/5A0RT3OLZs pic.twitter.com/hX5u1rSZCj

— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) January 5, 2026

40% of US homes don’t have a mortgage – Apollo’s Slok pic.twitter.com/qZCG7lt1rJ

— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) January 4, 2026

Stocks are ripping today and everyone is elated. Learn to be elated when the market is correcting by 15%+ and the VIX is 30+.

— Dumb Money (@MattMahler5) January 5, 2026

Santa Claus Milk drunk and failed to call!

Yale Hirsh of Trader's Almanac data series goes all the way back to 1969, here are the results, and its not as bad as you might think, actually quite positive. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA $NDX pic.twitter.com/9dqM33nvEp

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 3, 2024

Benner Cycle "hard years" (2026) % positive is 59%, basically a coin toss.

"Good years" (2023) is 82% and it was.

2026 is a hard year, but hard years still avg. positive returns, shown by the return metrics on buying last hard year and holding into the next hard period$SPX… https://t.co/jADr8x6XFh pic.twitter.com/3nWvDUvoGm

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 29, 2025

We have entered the Singularity

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 4, 2026

Nasdaq 100 had a reset year™ in 2022 – spending 0 days in overbought territory (RSI >70). The only other times this happened were 2002 and 2008. In both cases, $NDX was positive for next 5 years (year 3 the weakest). 2025 is only year 3. Reset years can bring sustained uptrend. pic.twitter.com/fy0xTHstMY

— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) December 28, 2025

None are predicting a market loss–none. pic.twitter.com/YxCiUSWHJ9

— Dave Collum (@DavidBCollum) January 5, 2026

https://x.com/aynirealtor/status/2009091116982055083?s=20

The biggest players in the market are forced sellers at the best times and forced buyers at the worst.

Fund mandates cap position sizes.

When a winner rips, they trim.

When a laggard dips, they add.

Understanding this flow is half the game.

— Chris Dover (@ChrisDMacro) January 6, 2026

BBG's survey of 590 subscribers Dec 11-31 found 28% predict a lower SPX a year from now (a much higher percentage than analysts), but still 72% looking for gains with 29% predicting 0-10% returns, 31% 10-20% and 11% >20%.https://t.co/1mr711OIfC pic.twitter.com/zdSwrwwgdU

— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) January 6, 2026

Tech $XLK was the 1 positive sector of 11 on Monday.

Since this bull market began, this setup occurred 12 other times. 2 and 3 months later, $SPX was higher EVERY. SINGLE. TIME 💯, with a +6.9% average gain.$SPY $QQQ $AAPL $NVDA $ORCL $BTC $NDX $MSFT $AVGO $NDX h/t… pic.twitter.com/GuSWnnKkJs

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 10, 2025

🆙 2026 is looking 🆙!

For the 1st time since '21, and 14th since 1950, $SPX trailing 3-yr return topped 1.5 STD above average (80%+ gain)

Bad News: the more extreme STD, the lower return
Good News: 6-month forward 🆙 13/14 occurrences$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $VOO $SMH $IWM $AAPL… pic.twitter.com/FN9YRulWvp

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 5, 2025

64 $SPX stocks made new 52-week highs yesterday. It may not sound like a lot, but it was the most since Nov'24. 👇

Check it the latest Cappnotes piece for why it matters. Link in profile. pic.twitter.com/IfgMsNwCo8

— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) January 6, 2026

US High Yield credit spreads start the year at 2.8 points over Treasuries, a level only seen in robust mid/late cycle markets (1997 – 1998, 2005, 2007, 2024, and 2025).

— Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) (@DataTrekMB) January 6, 2026

Semiconductors ETF $SMH gained over 7% in 3 days. Its strongest 3-day return since May 2025. Momentum in semis is re-accelerating. pic.twitter.com/xwwPa5NQcM

— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) January 6, 2026

And even the Q1 thing was wrong because it ignored the import intensity of that spending

— Dario Perkins (@darioperkins) January 7, 2026

Good chart from @FrankCappelleri in his morning note today. Take that, Santa. pic.twitter.com/eL2AuIiu1i

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) January 7, 2026

S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs rose to 64 for the first time in over a year. In prior instances where this market breadth measure took over 1 year to reach 64, 2-week forward returns were always positive. Breadth remains low, but it’s clearly improving. $SPX $SPY https://t.co/VWUX9xfhzR pic.twitter.com/CprZpVwtsI

— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) January 7, 2026

This is only the 7th year since 1970 where S&P 500 had a 10%+ YTD loss at some point but still closed positive – rare, extreme reversals. This momentum was always carried to next year, with an average gain of 18.9% and an average max drawdown of only 8.8%. $SPY $SPX #SP500 pic.twitter.com/M9f9a5Xkbu

— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) December 17, 2025

In 2025, millions pushed off of Medicaid and Obamacare. 7 out of the 10 worst impacted states went to President Trump in 2024.

This is going to be a disastrous Midterm election if no remedy found in January's budget resolution. House flip could bleed into Senate.#midterms2026… pic.twitter.com/zJC0EYGwSh

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 7, 2026

Nasdaq $QQQ $NDX Advance/Decline line made an all-time high in early December 2025, but Nasdaq hasn't made an all-time high since late October 2025.

Only other divergence (white line) like this was same period in Oct. 2024. Nasdaq would go on to make new highs. Breadth leads… pic.twitter.com/sDXe83rF59

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) January 7, 2026

BofA Savita Subramanian

💎Back to neutral w/7,100 PT
🔶Strong EPS growth, but P/E contraction
♦️Raise Staples to Overweight
🔷Still no consumer facing AI consumption, all CAPEX
💠Not Dotcom 2000, but demands broadening
🔸Credit Cycle looms$SPX $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $VIX $XLP… pic.twitter.com/Ab0uuy18zV

— Seth Golden (@SethCL) December 21, 2025

This is the key difference between the Dot Com and AI CAPEX booms. pic.twitter.com/MT23KrykM1

— Danny Dayan (@DannyDayan5) January 7, 2026

Low hiring hurts young people most since many are newly entering the labor market. Their employment rates have fallen in the past year, while employment for other age groups has held steadier or even increased. pic.twitter.com/Ccl22t1Ati

— Jed Kolko (@JedKolko) January 7, 2026

49% of weeks in 2025 saw jobless claims fall.

That may not sound strong, but history says it’s enough.

When roughly 45–55% of weeks show declining claims:

• SPX has averaged ~+8–10% Y/Y even in Weak regimes

• The following year often remains positive

Now if you look at my… pic.twitter.com/R9Uazdn0dp

— Sean D. Emory (@_SeanDavid) January 7, 2026

Years where jobless claims fall in less than 50% of weeks but then cycles to 60-75%, market finish higher 100% of the time since 1990

Returns:

• Average return: +19.1% Y/Y
• Best year: +22.3% (2003)
• Worst year: +15.3% (2020)
• % positive: 100% pic.twitter.com/isRPJ5RbgZ

— Sean D. Emory (@_SeanDavid) January 7, 2026

$NFLX is down two consecutive quarters for 9th time since its IPO. Historically, median 12M max drawdown was 35%, yet stock still delivered a median gain of 37%. In two negative cases after 12M, Netflix losses were only single digit. Risk reward skews favorable.
💡@aynirealtor https://t.co/JworrMVwej pic.twitter.com/Y6SGAHGsSd

— Bluekurtic Market Insights (@Bluekurtic) January 7, 2026

When the $SPX is higher after the first 5 trading days of January (48 times) the rest of the year closes higher 77% of the time with an avg gain of 12.3%. pic.twitter.com/ix35jRuIV8

— Optuma (@Optuma) January 6, 2026

Narrow breadth has challenged active funds over the last three years

% of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the index (1990-2025) pic.twitter.com/qVWXWHzLh6

— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) January 6, 2026

JOIN THE FINOM GROUP FAMILY – CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE NOW!

Master the markets with Seth Golden and our “Finominals” community! For just $29.99/month, unlock weekly 5000+ word macro research reports packed with charts and actionable insights. Go Premium at $84.99/month for daily Telegram Traders Corner, myth-busting Zoom sessions, and live 1%+ scalp/swing trading with Seth. Don’t let market noise win—join our Contributor or Premium Membership to build confidence and achieve your financial goals.

[Click here to replay a FREE Morning Market Setup sample from January 5th 2026!]

FINOM GROUP – RECENT REPORTS

November 30, 2025 – 2026 FULL YEAR MACRO-MARKET OUTLOOK RESEARCH REPORT

Perplexingly Positive Prognosis : 2026 Outlook

December 7, 2025

Technicals And Quants Speak Well Into Year-End 2025, But Valuations…

December 14, 2025

Shifting Trends At Year-End Or MAG-7 Pause To Reflect

December 21, 2025

Year-End 2025 Unsteady, Switching Strategy Wins Into 2026

December 28, 2025

The Top of 2025, Bottom of 2026

YOU’RE ALL CAUGHT UP NOW. THANKS FOR READING!

If you have any questions, feel free to message Seth Golden or contact us support@finomgroup.com

Comment below or tag us on X (@FinXWeekly) with your thoughts—your feedback drives our innovation.

Market Mania – FinX Weekly Top 10 #23