“There’s a BIG difference between being informed and being fearful.
Especially when it comes to investing, one should have healthy discipline, not a fear-driven mindset!
One works for you, the other works against your active portfolio management”
– Seth Golden
Mid-week Summary
Wednesday, June 11th, 2025
Welcome to Market Mania!
The S&P 500’s vicious, V-shaped surge above 6,000 from April’s 4,982 low (closing basis) proves a timeless truth: discipline outshines speculation. Fueled by a resilient U.S. consumer, falling inflation, and powerful SCHEDULED fund flows, the S&P 500 is (already) nearing all-time highs with a positive YTD gain exceeding 2%.
Despite a brutal first 100 trading days of 2025, and one of the toughest presidential inauguration periods in recent history, our Finom Group quants flagged early H1 weakness in 2025 and the subsequent dip-buying opportunities, delivering lucrative insights for members 🤑. A multi-month rally, driven by strong PRIMARY breadth indicators like the Triple 70, De-Graaf, and Zweig Breadth Thrust, alongside a semiconductor-led bull market, powers through tariff fears and geopolitical noise. As we’ve long emphasized, recessions are typically short-lived, and markets often bottom before the economy—2000-2002’s dot-com bust being the rare exception.
Skeptics who missed this rally now face steep opportunity costs, reaffirming that Buy-and-Hold, paired with strategic cash deployment during dips, is the proven path to market-beating returns. With profit growth slowing and Mag 7 leadership fading, disciplined investors who seize pullbacks will thrive. The Zweig Breadth Thrust signals serious momentum, guiding investors on navigating corrections or pullbacks when they arise. How can you navigate the next 3.5 years of this headline-driven presidency? Lean on quant-driven insights and trusted research like this article I have composed for you all—promise it’s a quick read!
As an investor. It’s important to have reliable trusted sources , that keep your emotional quotient stable. When it comes to investing and trading, your behavior matters most!
Market Mania is your daily digest of the most actionable insights you won’t find in your usual scroll—curated from and for thousands of market pros, asset managers, RIAs, and expert investors. We dig through the noise to bring you the best charts, articles, and ideas shared across the web each afternoon.
TLDR: We hunt, you read, you decide 🤝
Here’s what’s catching the eye of the sharpest minds in the market today!
Chart(s) of the Week
Scheduled Fund Flows are not bearish, in fact they have entered their most bullish 4-wk period of the calendar year!
Did you hedge at 6,000 because it's 6,000? There's always a reason to hedge. You should avoid every. single. one. of them!$SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $RTY… pic.twitter.com/fXAE5xYRX1
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) June 9, 2025
🏆 Today’s Chart(s) of the Week was shared by the one and only, Seth Golden (@SethCL). We might be a little biased here, but truthfully this concept of fund flows is more relevant than investors might realize:
My (Luis Solorzano’s) take on the bullish seasonal spike: This week’s chart, sourced from Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley Research, tracks the S&P 500’s average seasonal performance, on a 4-wk ROC % basis, from 1928-2024, revealing a sharp upward surge in late June to early July, also known as the “June Swoon”. Finom Group’s Seth Golden (@sethCL) notes this as the most bullish 4-week cycle of the year, driven by scheduled fund flows, with the chart’s peak aligning with current momentum. Having said that, while the chart suggests a potential 1-2% gain, we must weigh the risk of outflows and consolidation—(according to the above chart) seasonal strength often fades fast post-July, as historical data indicates a quick reversion on back half of September thru October.
Nevertheless, Seth STILL CAUTIONS AGAINST HEDGING at 6,000, but here we (almost) are and that’s what investors will d0. Despite the fact cyclical fund flows may not sustain gains without endogenous catalysts like fiscal stimulus or monetary easing. I’m sure you can guess what follows after that with short interest through the roof? 😉 Additional context from asset managers’ S&P 500 equity futures positions (2012-2024) shows a Trump 2.0 spike above 45%—far exceeding the 10% low of Trump 1.0—suggesting higher percentile positioning, unlike the typical Republican fade. Yet, this elevated positioning, paired with an almost 50% semiconductor rally off the April * low, amid 2025 tariff noise, could precede volatility as we are yet to achieve any deals of consequence with China.
Equity positioning is very different in Trump 2.0 relative to Trump 1.0, nearly 2 stand deviations above the median historical positioning level. $SPX $ES_F $SPY $NYA $IWM $SMH $NVDA $BTC pic.twitter.com/ETYcDlcMeT
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) June 3, 2025
“Another day another W for investors who did absolutely nothing but stick to their plans.”
Quote of The Week
I’m sure permabulls can relate?…
Cash is the best and only hedge folks!
PROVE. ME. WRONG.
Optimism sounds like a sales pitch. Pessimism sounds like someone trying to help you.
— Morgan Housel (@morganhousel) June 9, 2025
Top 10 Tweets of The Week
Oh how the tables have turned!
Wall Street strategists came into the year bullish. 🐂
Most cut their targets near the April lows 🐻, but now they are getting bullish again. 🐂
Nice @YahooFinance Chart of the Day. @ewolffmann @_JoshSchafer pic.twitter.com/tvqJ2OyVum
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) June 10, 2025
And this is somehow bearish I’m sure?
US household stock ownership % of total assets at an all-time high JPM
Nearing 30% pic.twitter.com/7uGfkUnGEn
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 10, 2025
“Volatility is the price you pay for future returns.”
-Seth Golden
Someone asked:
If the US stock market always comes back is it essentially risk free?
I have some thoughts:https://t.co/RaBoe5ecw2 pic.twitter.com/YUK5JzgQYm
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) June 9, 2025
“Hey Siri, are ascending wedges bullish formations?…”
SIRI: Im not sure I understand.
Double Top for the 30-yr Treasury Yield?
Double Top for 30-yr fixed rate mortgage?$SPX $TLT $SPY $TYX $XHB $HD $QQQ $IWM pic.twitter.com/drBjsd4RXi
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) June 9, 2025
So is the June Swoon in bond yields or in the indices? Or both? We shall find out very S(w)OON!
THIRTY YEAR BOND YIELD PERFORMANCE FROM JUNE10-30
There is a seasonal tendency for a June Swoon in Bond Yields around mid June.
The below table shows the Thirty Year Bond Yield performance from June10-30 for the last 50 years.
Bond Yields have risen only eight times in the… pic.twitter.com/NVBDoCP4lI
— Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) June 7, 2025
So far, so good ‼️😊
Equal-weight Nasdaq 100 underperforming (weaker breadth) is a good thing (relative to Cap-weight Nasdaq 100)
It's only when EQ is outperforming CW that $COMPQ suffers. You want this downtrend (upper panel) to continue if youre bullish markets. Leadership!$QQQ $SPX $NDX $ES_F… pic.twitter.com/aT172hJ74R
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) May 28, 2025
“99% of parabolic stock moves are not survived. Case in point $F
If you own a stock going into parabolic move, that is your opportunity to scale out, not ride the eventual undoing of the move to the downside. Ford did not all of a sudden become the 1%. $TSLA”
Can i say the same thing about Bitcoin ETFs or is that illegal? Im pretty sure it isn’t? At least not yet! 🤐
$IBIT just blew through $70b and is now the fastest ETF to ever hit that mark in only 341 days, which is 5x faster than the old record held by GLD of 1,691 days. Nice chart from @JackiWang17 pic.twitter.com/5VeGT9twpQ
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) June 9, 2025
No recession = No small cap outperformance.
Despite the recent rebound in stocks:
The relative performance of small-cap stocks is nearing new lows, revisiting levels not seen since the peak of the tech bubble. pic.twitter.com/cC7pWqf9mZ
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) June 7, 2025
“The reality is that the only sell signal you should honor is one developed by investing, Buy & Hold process. All other “sell signals” invite/compound opportunity costs!”
J.P. Morgan on trying to time the AI 🤖 top Nasdaq!
1-month early = 13% opportunity cost
3-months early = 31% opportunity cost
6-months early = 94% opportunity costEither this is not a bubble, or you will be early. Speculation is the enemy of savvy investor.$SPX $NDX $COMPQ… pic.twitter.com/BEu6liGvIl
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) February 16, 2025
“If doing anything short of Buy-and-hold, just know it is not likely investing, but more an expression of ego and/or an unhealthy competitive spirit.“
Here's how much $1,000 at birth would be worth today if it were invested in the S&P 500 at the end of each month going back 50 years (with dividends re-invested).
50 years ago: ~$350k today
25 years ago: ~$35k today
10 years ago: ~3.5k today pic.twitter.com/YvaqdGLSdi— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 9, 2025
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[Click here for a free Morning Market Setup sample from June 10th!]
Finom Group – Recent Reports
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Are Fund Flows Back To Their Regularly Scheduled Programming
