“As an investor, you should start worrying about deficits the day you can control them. Until then, it’s not worth your time.
The market will tell you there are other people that are trying to control it. Their success of their ability to control it will be representative of market price action. Bond AND equity.”
– Seth Marcus
Mid-week Summary
Thursday, June 19th, 2025
Welcome to Market Mania!
Where the only thing more relentless than the headlines is the market’s ability to surprise.
2025 is shaping up as a year defined by seismic, often colliding, forces: a new U.S. president is actively reshaping global trade, while just last week, the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran injected fresh exogenous volatility into already turbulent markets. For many, the instinct is to look back to the Russia/Ukraine war of 2022 for clues. But this Middle East conflict is a different animal: U.S. corporate exposure to both Iran and Israel is limited, and the risk of a meaningful disruption to U.S. crude supply remains low. The chief importer of Iranian crude is China, not the U.S., and OPEC—especially Saudi Arabia—has spare capacity to offset any shortfall. So why did energy markets still see a knee-jerk surge in prices? As history shows, oil prices often react more to sentiment than to fundamentals when Middle East tensions flare.
Yet, as Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid reminds us, “Geopolitical events have often created short, sharp market shocks, but with little lasting impact beyond weeks.” The real question is whether this time is different, or if fear is once again outpacing reality.
Friday’s global asset selloff was more about recalibrating for a possible drawn-out conflict than any immediate economic threat. For developed economies, the direct impact of the Israel-Iran war is likely to be muted unless the conflict broadens dramatically or the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for a third of global seaborne oil—faces a sustained blockade, which markets currently view as unlikely. Still, investors must stay nimble: any escalation that disrupts energy flows or drags in new actors could upend these assumptions in a hurry.
Against this backdrop, U.S. equities have weathered a failed quant signal, with last week’s rally interrupted by geopolitical headlines. But the data-driven investor knows that even the best models can be overridden by exogenous shocks. The key is to treat near-term price weakness as a potential opportunity, not a reason for panic. Historical breadth thrusts and sector leadership—especially in semiconductors—remain supportive, and the S&P 500’s resilience after May’s gains suggests limited downside barring a major escalation.
In short, 2025 is a masterclass in managing both endogeny (domestic policy shocks) and exogeny (geopolitical surprises). The playbook? Stay disciplined, buy strategically on dips, and let the headlines inform—not dictate—your investment process. As always, volatility is the price of admission for long-term returns.
Let’s dive into this week’s full report and unpack the data, the risks, and the opportunities that lie ahead.
Market Mania is your daily digest of the most actionable insights you won’t find in your usual scroll—curated from and for thousands of market pros, asset managers, RIAs, and expert investors. We dig through the noise to bring you the best charts, articles, and ideas shared across the web each Wednesday (Juneteenth making today’s post an exception).
TLDR: We hunt, you read, you decide 🤝
Here’s what’s catching the eye of the sharpest minds in the market today!
Chart(s) of the Week
🏆 Today’s Chart(s) of the Week was shared by Richard Bernstein Advisors (@RBAdvisors):
This week’s chart, zeroes in on the recent resurgence in Core Import Prices—a leading indicator for U.S. inflation, especially given the nation’s persistent trade deficit and “Tariff-ying Tariffs”. As of June 2025, Core Import Prices are up 1.3% year-over-year, and this uptick is beginning to ripple through to domestic price measures. The May CPI rose to 321.47 (from 320.80 in April), with annual inflation accelerating for the first time in four months to 2.4% (still below the 2.5% consensus forecast). Core CPI (all items less food and energy) remains at 2.8%, while the energy index dropped 3.5% and the food index increased to 2.9%. On a monthly basis, CPI edged up just 0.1%, undershooting expectations.
The more policy-relevant Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is also showing stickiness: April’s core PCE was up 2.5% and headline PCE up 2.1% year-over-year, both still above the Fed’s 2% target. With the next PCE print due June 27, all eyes are on whether/when this import price surge will meaningfully filter into broader inflation gauges.
The Fed’s job just gets tougher and tougher. The massive US #trade deficit causes Core Import Price trends to often lead Core CPI trends. Core Import Prices might be resuming their upward move. pic.twitter.com/xt8xTSBqTb
— Richard Bernstein Advisors (@RBAdvisors) June 17, 2025
The chart’s message to me (Luis Solorzano) is unequivocal: tariff-driven import price pressures could potentially lead to a short-term surge in both CPI and PCE inflation over the next quarter, potentially even a year, or two, or three! The timing of such occurrences and the extent to which the market is a forward mechanism are uncertain. Therefore, it is crucial to avoid making premature assumptions if you aim to be a long-term investor and market out-performer. Point being: “This Too Shall Pass.” And regarding all the geopolitical tensions worldwide,… we continue to pray for peace.
This observation is significant because historical data since 1928 indicates that the primary driver of market movements within any given calendar year is NOT earnings, regardless of their direction, but rather whether inflation is rising or falling, remember its a ROC indicator! Notably, average stock market gains are nearly double when we are experiencing disinflation compared to inflation. However, we maintain our view that this phenomenon will once again, prove transitory. Absent a 1970s-style oil embargo or a significant geopolitical shock, today’s diversified global supply chains and energy markets render a sustained inflationary surge highly improbable. As the momentum of import prices diminishes, disinflation should resume by late 2025 or early 2026.
It is also important to emphasize the need to view data holistically. Institutional Investors, Fed Policymakers, and Economists all rely on a mosaic of indicators—CPI, PCE, unemployment, and more—to make short-term financial decisions, and there is real opportunity within the numbers for those who look beyond any single datapoint and rejoice in cheaper prices. With data quality facing challenges from reduced sample sizes, survey response rates, and frequent revisions, overreacting to any one headline figure is a mistake. Instead, focusing on the broader trends and corroborating signals across the economic landscape is what I prefer to participate in!
Likewise, unemployment is a critical metric to monitor when on recession watch. Rising jobless claims or a deteriorating labor market often precede economic downturns and can shift both market sentiment and Fed policy. Always being mindful of potential future revisions of course! 😉
Key Considerations:
– PCE Is (still) Key: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is the PCE, not CPI, and the next PCE release (June 27) will be critical for policy signals.
– Fed on the Sidelines: Persistent inflation uncertainties like rising import prices, tariff noise, and global tensions, are likely to keep the Fed on hold through 2025. While an “insurance cut” would be welcome, the Fed has historically avoided preemptive moves in similar scenarios. Our base case: no rate cuts until 2026, despite some forecasts for modest cuts this year. Remember, the question the market will often ask itself is, “why less cuts?” and as far as slow rate-cutting cycles, per NDR, historically more bullish in the 12-24 months post cut.
– Jackson Hole Looms: The annual Jackson Hole symposium is approaching and could be a pivotal moment for Fed communication. Unless inflation or growth data shift sharply, expect a cautious, patient tone from policymakers.
ALWAYS Leave Room In Your Portfolio for Disappointment:
As Seth would say, MANAGE CASH WISELY. Sounds simple, right? No matter how strong the historical data or how compelling the macro narrative, lowering your expectations often finds the SAVVY Investor rewarded. Markets can (clearly) surprise, and policy or inflation risks can materialize faster than models predict, to the downside as well, not just the upside! 😉📉 Flexibility and cash management are essential, especially in an environment where uncertainty is elevated and the Fed remains reactive, not proactive, contrary to most investors’ unfound wishes.
Bottom Line:
Expect a temporary inflation bump led by import prices, but don’t mistake it for a new era of runaway prices. The Fed’s sideline stance is likely to persist, with rate cuts deferred until 2026 unless the data change dramatically. Stay tuned for Jackson Hole: any shift in tone could be market-moving, but for now, patience and, as our Senior Member Brad Carter often says, “aggressive discipline,” remains the playbook. Above all, remember: holistic analysis of inflation, unemployment, and the full spectrum of economic data is the best compass for navigating market twists and turns.
Just going to leave this hear… DISCUSS!
Sample size for a bull mkt with P/E 22X or greater = 1 ?
All others genesis from bear market w/average duration 6 months."Yea but the chart looks cautionary/pessimistic so it makes me sound smart."$SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $NDX… https://t.co/OKvl5KAAtH pic.twitter.com/XJ6k20Ap7Z
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) June 16, 2025
Need I say more?
Yes, I will leave Seth Golden’s feedback above in place for #2 Top Chart(s) of The Week.
Absent any additional commentary because it is not needed if you have 2 eyes and a willingness to discern the broader trends and see the forrest thru the trees 🌲, so to speak! OK, time to shut up now! Sorry but its hard not to glaze Michael Jordan! 🐐😂
Quote(s) of The Week
“The punishment of every disordered mind is its own disorder.” Augustine of Hippo
— Adithia Kusno ☦️🐂🚀💎🙌🎯 (@AdithiaKusno) June 16, 2025
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) June 11, 2025
Top 10 (maybe 15 😅) Tweets of The Week
Valuations are NOT timing tools. Sound familiar? Nevertheless…Developed Markets xUS forward P/E ratio back to pre-liberation day levels! I would cautiously assume US markets should follow?…
📌 Valuation
While the macroeconomic outlook has weakened, the US stock market's forward P/E ratio has moved back toward pre-Liberation Day levels
👉 https://t.co/blMxcoFA78h/t @dailychartbook @TS_Lombard $spx #spx pic.twitter.com/ed7T7RL4Pp
— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) June 14, 2025
Scheduled fund flows disagree, but if this quant proves useful. You know what you should be doing in the 2nd worst 2-week period since 1950s. Yes its only a median, but at least worth noting these are NOT 12-month forward returns depicted below!
Goldman Sachs
🔹Since 1950, 2nd half of June has 2nd weakest median return (and one of only four with a negative return).
🔶Quad Monthly Op/EX and FOMC meeting
♦️Bigger Composite cycle schedule fund flows disagree with seasonality. $SPX $ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $SMH $SOXX pic.twitter.com/Y8Xozgt3V8
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) June 16, 2025
If you only focus on the histograms behind the line chart, you notice a clear trend: this information is absolutely useless! And all this chart has provided is opportunity cost for the entirety of its existence… and you just got RATIO’d. No pun intended!
Insider Selling at Record Levels. pic.twitter.com/iyF9vFCSfD
— Menthor Q (@MenthorQpro) June 17, 2025
Triple bottom anyone? Y’all (pardon my french) really like renting that much? I mean maybe as a landlord, but sheesh, that still is a pain in the arse to say the least! Home ownership is key to the American Dream, don’t let anyone take that away from you, especially if you’ve made it this far! And for the youngsters like me, is your .1 BTC really going to buy your first house? Back to opportunity cost we go! 🫵
Home builder confidence slipped two points again in June to a reading of 32 in the NAHB/@WellsFargo Housing Market Index (HMI), the third-lowest reading for the HMI since 2012. https://t.co/xR8KH6k2i8 #economy #realestate pic.twitter.com/mfDcioKXOY
— NAHB 🏠 (@NAHBhome) June 17, 2025
🫡📈 https://t.co/kDeSYvTATN pic.twitter.com/ZnWo97p82p
— Logan Mohtashami (@LoganMohtashami) June 16, 2025
A college degree may open doors and provide the credentials needed to pursue employment, but it doesn’t guarantee on-the-job performance or true qualification, results do. This distinction is especially stark in the financial industry, where credentials are required by regulation but rarely protect consumers from underperformance. In fact, most financial advisors and professionals consistently deliver results that lag simple index funds, raising the question: what’s the value of credentials if they don’t translate to better outcomes? Just as you wouldn’t trust a doctor who’d never completed a residency or a basketball player who’d only passed written tests, true qualification in any field comes from demonstrated results, not just paper credentials. In finance, where over 95% of service providers underperform the market over any 15-20 year timeframe, yes I know, LONG TIME right? “They need you invested because of the fees.” What about the power of compounding! Still don’t believe in the 1% for 1% method? Being credentialed is not the same as being qualified, and retail deserves better, hence Seth and Edward’s creation of Finom Group! 🙏 🧡
[CORRECTION]
📉Year-to-date US retail sales are up 4% pic.twitter.com/365ey54ppJ
— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) June 17, 2025
Historically, shorting the dollar has not been a sound investment strategy. Instead, it may be more prudent to continue buying/selling names like NVDA, META, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and am I allowed to say NFLX? (I was a seller at $690 back in July 🙃)… “in dribs and drabs”, in order to lower your cost average through our active-trading regiment. Additionally, focusing on large-cap growth and blue chip names may be a more viable option. However, if you are concerned about systemic risk, it is understandable. Just do it scared!
If you are into FX, or short the dollar, historically, DXY has gone nowhere (80-120 range) since 1990. So what exactly are you constantly so worried or excited about when it comes to this subject exactly? Lets see how well this below chart ages for shorts, here SHORT-ly. Might be getting good at this pun, thing!
Anyways, about portfolio distractions 😅, sounds smart = results stupid? Anyone here who would like to talk about stablecoins? Or their long UVXY call options, just-in-case (as a hedge 😱) Feel free to speak up! But my guesses are, if you’ve made it this far, and are here reading this at the moment, this is NOT you! 🧠 So pat yourself on the back every once in a while for being here and doing your due diligence – and hopefully adding value to your ever-growing, investor emotional quotient!
Quick reminder: your results are always a direct by-product of the amount of work you put in.
Investors are the most underweight US dollar in 20 years: Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey for June pic.twitter.com/l0jc6dSw65
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) June 17, 2025
"But the dollar has a more formidable structural headwind. First, the sheer size of the fiscal deficit. Large government borrowing typically leads to a weaker US currency as inflation pressures pick up. Furthermore, in the current environment, fiscal wantonness risks deterring… https://t.co/XvBAu5ft4Q pic.twitter.com/ueYoEkdxyB
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) June 16, 2025
Is retail still the “dumb money” or are we getting smarter at this whole “FUD” thing? 🤣
GS: Retail investors have been selling pic.twitter.com/3V3fqW0zkh
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 16, 2025
Consequently, the inherent nature of their business dictates their approach. Underperformance remains a persistent concern on Wall Street, as traders seek to identify unique strategies to effectively “manage risk”, only deepening their losses and compromising their emotional intelligence and biases. While increasing cash reserves and short selling VXX (buying contango) are viable options, they do not align with the majority of their expertise. Instead, many are found abandoning prudent investor disciplines in order to accurately anticipate or influence short-term market fluctuations. This further deteriorates portfolios and necessitates traders to perform exceptionally well in the fourth quarter and pursue market growth to avoid disappointing clients once again.
Goldman: Professional investors maintain their cautious positioning. Coming into 2025, demand for levered equity exposure from professional investors in futures, swaps and options declined significantly. This was a signal of potential downside asymmetry. Over recent months,… pic.twitter.com/iCnHd8vbux
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) June 16, 2025
But this is a bad thing? oh yeah, the dollar is dead… along w US exceptionalism 😂
The US dollar has — thus far — put in this century's worst performance: pic.twitter.com/twkKvrY5AN
— Karl Schamotta (@Karl_Schamotta) June 16, 2025
Fear sure does sell. How many copies sold? Anyone care to guess… over 47M+ copies sold!!! Per NYT, “one of the best-selling personal finance books of all time”… and there right there folks, and I quote the one and only Seth Golden again, “THE FAT LADY SINGING”!
Do not say I didn’t warn anyone.
As predicted in my book Rich Dad’s Prophecy (2013) the biggest crash in history is coming.
I am afraid that crash time is now and through this summer.
Unfortunately, millions, especially my generation of boomers will be wiped out when the…
— Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) June 2, 2025
Anyone want to take a guess as to why it is called the bridesmaid trade?
Energy sector.
BofA: FMS investors are net 26% underweight energy. Current reading is 1.8 stdev below its long-term average. pic.twitter.com/jRGjxH74MV
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 17, 2025
Maybe all those things that you learned aren’t really things? Hard to unlearn what’s popular, but wrong!
Bonds don’t hedge stocks anymore.
Correlation is at 100-year highs—just like inflation and deficits.
The 60/40 worked in a “2% world.”
We’re not in that world anymore.
This is why diversification failed in 2022—and why it may keep failing.
There are only two situations when… pic.twitter.com/c7qcmh6hwW
— Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) June 17, 2025
Is this what irrational exuberance looks like to you? I wont ask SIRI to define a “market bubble” this time, I swear… 😂
She does have ChatGPT now, which is nice. Let me close with this quick quote from Seth Golden within our (premium members only) Trading Room session yesterday via Zoom:
How does AI get developed and mass adopted without a hardware platform? And other than Samsung, Apple has the largest in the world, right? So why are we so myopic with the view that Apple has to do something? Same thing that we said when it came to autonomous driving and creating their own vehicle, and the EV industry has had no innovation or very little addressable market over the 5-year period. What are they missing out on when it comes to EVs? So I have the same question. Until there is a hardware platform that you can put this AI technology into or on, why does Apple have to do anything? It’s obviously working within their existing operating system and LLMs to improve what they can improve. But above and beyond that. What is there? Search AI? Apple is not going into pharmaceuticals, so that’s a different conversation. Where have they lost their way or why will they fall behind? I just don’t see it. Do any of you? Where is that product that I can go to Best Buy, Walmart, Target, or electronics section that Apple is directly competing with and/ or falling behind to?
Flow into US equities is gone? pic.twitter.com/8pdCi8zFcY
— Menthor Q (@MenthorQpro) June 16, 2025
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