“No such thing as a failed Zweig Breadth Thrust signal. EVER.
Only failed market participants.”– Seth Golden
Mid-week Summary
Wednesday, July 2nd, 2025
Welcome to Market Mania!
Where the only thing more relentless than the headlines is the market’s ability to surprise.
The first half of 2025 closed with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching fresh all-time highs, capping off a remarkable rebound from the sharp April selloff and putting a spotlight on the market’s resilience amid relentless policy and geopolitical crosscurrents. While headlines continue to swirl—from renewed tariff threats and a looming 90-day trade pause expiration/extension, to shifting fiscal policy and ongoing Middle East tensions—investors are finding that the real story is the market’s ability to climb the wall of worry. Notably, the direct economic impact of recent geopolitical shocks has been muted, with energy markets reacting more to sentiment than to any fundamental supply risk, and U.S. equities quickly regaining footing after each bout of volatility.
Sector rotation is now in focus as tech stocks, led by the “Magnificent 7,” see some profit-taking and investors rotate into semiconductors (SMH) and industrials (XLI), which are now outperforming year-to-date while consumer discretionary (XLY) and healthcare (XLV) lags. The Dow surged 400 points to start the new quarter, while the S&P 500 held near record levels, and the Nasdaq’s momentum slowed as TSLA and other tech names pulled back. Meanwhile, economic data remains mixed: job openings have unexpectedly surged to their highest since late 2024, and traders are watching for signs of softness in ISM manufacturing and this week’s key payroll report.
Scheduled Fund Flows and quant signals remain a guide! July is historically one of the best months for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.4% gain over the past 35 years and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) typically outperforming. This year’s May-to-July rally is already outpacing even the most bullish seasonal expectations, with forecasts suggesting the S&P 500 could see further gains through month-end. Volatility, however, tends to pick up in July, so investors should be prepared for choppier price action even as the broader trend remains constructive.
In short, the market’s message is clear: despite noise from policy, politics, and geopolitics, disciplined investors who recognize the weight of the evidence—rather than chase the next headline(s)—continue to be rewarded. The playbook remains to buy strategically on dips, let the data guide your process, and treat volatility as the price of admission for long-term returns.
Let’s dive into this week’s full report and unpack the data, the risks, and the opportunities that lie ahead.
Market Mania is your daily digest of the most actionable insights you won’t find in your usual scroll—curated from and for thousands of market pros, asset managers, RIAs, and expert investors. We dig through the noise to bring you the best charts, articles, and ideas shared across the web each Wednesday.
TLDR: We hunt, you read, you decide 🤝
Here’s what’s catching the eye of the sharpest minds in the market today!
Chart(s) of the Week
🏆 Today’s Chart(s) of the Week was shared by Mike Zaccardi (@MikeZaccardi):
Mike Zaccardi’s Chart of the Week captures the S&P 500’s most rapid recoveries to all-time highs after declines of 15% or greater, drawing on data from 1991, 1998, 2019, 2020, and 2025. The 2025 recovery, prominently displayed in black, achieved new highs in approximately 125 trading days, aligning closely with the swift rebound of 1998 following the Asian Financial Crisis (which would subsequently be followed by the collapse of LTCM). This trajectory highlights the S&P 500’s capacity to navigate significant disruptions with remarkable resilience, as articulated in our Proprietary March 30th Research Report (Long Term Gains Demand Short Term Pain):
We may have arrived at a point where investors/traders are asked to invoke the “willingness clause” of investing. The willingness clause asks investors to benefit from the ignorant, while accepting an interim and possibly large portfolio drawdown. The willingness clause knows it is only through this exercise that the savvy investor achieves every tick to the upside, when the upside renews… AND IT IS ALWAYS RENEWED, but when is the only question and hence the willingness clause is invoked.
The solace for the savvy bulls who choose to ride out the storm is that they are guaranteed the not just the greater returns, but all of the returns the market has to offer during the renewed uptrend. There is nothing heretical about these facts. They are as they have always been, facts!
The 2025 recovery, unfolding over roughly six months, reflects a market adept at rebounding from a sharp but transient correction, likely triggered by geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, or better stated, the removal or easing of said “worries”. Unlike protracted bear markets, such as the 2000–2002 dot-com bust, this swift ascent suggests robust economic fundamentals, including stable GDP growth, contained inflation, and resilient corporate earnings. The absence of systemic issues, such as financial sector instability, enabled investor confidence to return rapidly, driving the index back to record levels. Sector dynamics played a pivotal role in this recovery.
Big V.
Fastest recovery ever $SPY @wsj pic.twitter.com/EjOOjmhHpw
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 30, 2025
Given the S&P 500’s tech-heavy composition, sectors like semiconductors (SMH) and cybersecurity (HACK) led the charge, echoing the tech-driven rally of 2020. Defensive sectors, such as healthcare (XLV) and utilities (XLU), provided stability, while cyclical sectors, including financials (XLF) and industrials (XLI), capitalized on improving sentiment, creating a broad-based recovery. Modern market mechanics further accelerated the process. High-frequency trading, increased retail participation through digital platforms, and strong ETF inflows amplified upward momentum, distinguishing 2025 from slower recoveries like the post-2008 period. Historical context enriches the narrative. The 1991 recovery followed the resolution of geopolitical uncertainty, while 2020’s was propelled by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. In contrast, the 1998 recovery after the Asian financial crisis and 2019’s rebound amid trade tensions were less rapid, suggesting 2025 benefited from a unique blend of global resilience and domestic strength, although still lagging emerging markets (EEM) by more than 1,000 bps YTD. The absence of a major exogenous shock, such as a 1970s-style oil crisis, further supported the market’s ability to recover swiftly, likely bolstered by a supportive policy environment or trade policy resolutions that eased global uncertainties.
For investors like myself, (Luis Solorzano), think this chart underscores the value of sticking to savvy “AGRESSIVE DISCIPLINE” (tired yet?), whether you like it or not! To capture broad-based recoveries all you really need to do is manage cash wisely. Sounds simple right? Rapid rebounds favor momentum strategies, but over-reliance on a few megacap stocks signals potential vulnerabilities, or should I say… OPPORTUNITIES. As Seth likes to say, “If you cant handle double digit drawdowns, how will you handle double digit returns?” Volatility spikes, though short-lived, require tools like quantitative/technical analysis to navigate sudden shifts and get you “out the mud”. Keep those research reports handy folks! Central bank actions remain a key variable as Jackson’s Hole meeting approaches and investors are reminded of Powell’s past “Autopilot” comment following the Trade War 1.0 under Trump in 2018, with dovish signals likely sustaining momentum and hawkish surprises posing risks, the FED once again is at a place where all they must really begin to do is SHIFT THEIR TONE IN LANGUAGE AND SIGNAL A SHIFT. Just yesterday we recently heard Jerome say yesterday, regarding his openness to a future rate cut. Im sure we will quickly find out how apolitical the FED really is!
Geopolitical developments or commodity market disruptions could challenge future recoveries, necessitating ongoing vigilance, especially as the BBB comes to fruition and July 4th/9th tariff deadline comes to pass… within the week. Soon we will be less than 100 days away from Christmas folks! Time flies under Trump presidencies, don’t ask why! 😂 😉
In conclusion, the S&P 500’s 2025 recovery, reaching -19% (on closing basis), followed viciously by new highs in approximately 125 trading days, reflects a market resilient to significant declines, driven by strong fundamentals, sector leadership, and dynamic market mechanisms. Investors should focus on engaging local price weakness via a longer-term mindset. A new depression which seemingly looms by 2030 begins to usher some investors quickly out of the markets. Talk about opportunity cost? The power lies in STAYING INVESTED, proactive risk management, and close monitoring of global and domestic policy developments to navigate future volatility effectively. Q3 will be a fun one, folks, so stay strapped and enjoy the ride! 🎢 Do not forget Y3 returns of a bull market are typically muted, so keeping expectations low and letting your core holdings benefit should always be part of your game plan. All that should differ is the degree to which you are engaging, but a savvy investor is ALWAYS LONG/BUYING! Simply leaving room in his/her portfolio for disappointment and the inevitable drawdowns.
Volatility indeed tends to cluster. Aka, opportunities come and go. Don’t be afraid to seize the moment – CARPE DIEM! Compounding returns is not to be understated and mathematically powerful!!! Don’t be scared to engage that 1% bolt-on. And if you are, that is fine… just do it scared! And maybe alongside our “Traders Corner” group chat via Telegram (premium members only) as well. Being a lone wolf 🐺 trader is NEVER ❌ a good idea, and as history has emphasized, feedback is always needed and should be encouraged. Be not afraid to ask questions or open up those MICS! 🎤
🚨Here comes the Pullback
Normal market conditions, indices will achieve 1-2 STD above 50-DMA.
Not normal market conditions, $SPX $NDX will achieve 2.5-3 STD above 50-DMA
This is not normal, AND indices finished above Upper Bollinger Band yesterday.
From what price the… pic.twitter.com/WLUbXmEGHC
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) July 1, 2025
Need I say more? Are you expecting at least some “disappointment”? I Hope We Are WRONG! I truly mean it. But if not, you know what we’ll be doing regardless! Dribs and Drabs. ✅ I wasn’t aware of the notion that stocks ONLY go up now? Can someone please send me over that memo along with the next lottery numbers if possible as well? Pretty sure NO vertical move has ended well, so retesting 5,850 area would NOT be something that I would define as improbable, and consider healthy instead, especially if in the near future. 👍 👁️
Yes, I will leave Seth Golden’s feedback commentary above (AGAIN) tied, in place for #1 Top Chart(s) of The Week.
Were you chasing lower, or higher? Why not both?… Are 6-packs and Abercrombie models still in trend? (I miss the 2000’s obviously), BUT I still love my ABBs, “Always Be Buyin’…” 💪 Anyways, enough of my rambling… 😅 Lets finish up with a quick quote from Mr. Golden regarding drawdowns 📉:
“Let uncertainty reflect in your position size. The sooner you get used to drawdowns. The better you will be able to suffer the drawdowns in the future. No better way to produce better disciplines than by taking big drawdowns. This is the type of stuff you won’t find on social media. It’s the AVOIDANCE of drawdown that gets attention. The best hedge doesn’t cost you anything and that’s the cash you have on the sidelines. Doesn’t cost you anything emotionally and all you have to do is follow the scheduled fund flows and put the money to work when the market is pulling back. 1Q of post election year and 1H of midterm year are the worst performing in the entirety of the presidential cycle by the way. Opening up a new position in an emotional state when the market volatility is ratcheted higher and thinking you will be able to manage it is BAD DISCIPLINE!!! It just gets you in more trouble. CBOE has data that 85% of hedges fail to achieve the desired outcome.” – Seth Golden on April 9th
Quote(s) of The Week
“focus on YOUR TREND 📈, not your position.”
An underrated life lesson: Focus on your trend, not your position. When you live zoomed in, it’s easy to take a negative view on your current position relative to others. Zoom out and pay attention to the trend. You may be doing better than you realize. When in doubt, zoom out. pic.twitter.com/4zRhjT7lb2
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) July 1, 2025
😘 KISS 💋 Keep It Simple Stupid!
You do NOT need to have 1M+ dollars, let alone 50K like myself to start investing. You can start with 1K, 5K, 10k, 20k, or even 2M. You get the point! We all have different starting points and risks so always keep that in mind when basing your actions on others investors opinions, but when it comes to our end goals… I think we are all here to do the SAME THING and that is to preserve capital and grow your wealth by “beating inflation” (and possibly the market?…) over the LONG-RUN 🏃♂️. All that matters is your timeframe, EXPAND THAT VARIABLE and the whole price thing quickly shifts to a larger opportunity, forrest thru the trees… 🌲‼️ Think about your kids’ kids! Your EQ will improve sharply, and these unfortunate events will NOT prove so unfortunate after you live them, as the investor psychology will simply shift to one of rejoicement when “bad things happen”.
“I would bet good money the same thing happens today with investing advice”
Experience is the mother of all wisdoms. Stop trying to be in the business of AVOIDANCE and instead EMBRACE and let things happen. All we can really do when it comes to exogeny/endogeny is simply PLAN ahead and always be forward looking, like the markets. For better, or for worse.
Morgan Housel's anecdotes are another level. pic.twitter.com/wz4aAuT9sE
— Sandeep Kulkarni (@moneyworks4u_fa) June 30, 2025
Most investors spend MOST of their time worrying about things that NEVER come to fruition.
📢 Cornell University study: 85% of your worries
NEVER happen.
Top 10 Tweets of The Week
What if every-time is different?
“A Lesson From 2021: What many gurus seemed to forget is that corrections are only “due” in the minds of people looking for things that aren’t there. They are deemed to be “due” by the folks that like to make guesses, as they become baffled by protracted trends” – Seth Golden
$SPX Follow through month number 2. We've seen it before. pic.twitter.com/cZs51qnpsO
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) June 30, 2025
I bet hedging at/near all-time highs is a GREAT idea! (NOT) 🫵
Most Bullish Day of Year!
1st Day July S&P 500 Up 14 Straight, up 90.5% of the time since 2004, avg gain +0.44%. DJIA & NASDAQ are nearly as strong, up 81.0% and 85.7% respectively. Most consistently bullish day of the year! https://t.co/I3OmW5RKhO pic.twitter.com/GmTpzW7qJ0— Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) June 30, 2025
Do you find it odds that in the past 10 cycles (since 1985) the post election year has become increasingly stronger, but wait!!! Those pesky midterm years are vice versa! All about sequencing folks…
The S&P 500 has been higher in a post-election year nine of the past 10 cycles (going back 40 years to 1985).
Strength now is normal, it is next year you need to worry about. pic.twitter.com/DgnALlx9pe
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) June 30, 2025
Building BLOCKS… (-;
Since 1985, when oil experiences an intraday reversal like it did last week, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months later 100% of the time, with a median gain of 29%.
H/t @CiovaccoCapital @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/iVtataFllO
— Joe Carlasare (@JoeCarlasare) June 29, 2025
4-5 years later we may be facing a serious US 🇺🇸 – debt issue… unless stablecoins save the world of course! 🙃
Right as forward measures of GDP & employment are rolling over, the Senate is looking to pass a Bill that does this 👇 ??!!
If passed, this will unequivocally be the most POLITICALLY TONE-DEAF BILL to ever pass Congress…@elonmusk https://t.co/kZsG7pPJif pic.twitter.com/88xBFVsKN1
— Cem Karsan 🥐 (@jam_croissant) June 29, 2025
Yo mamma so bearish on tech, she thinks the 75% market cap threshold is a bull trap waiting to snap!
“Because of the Dotcom crash 2000, there still exists a fearful bias. It’s how our minds work. When it comes to money we rarely forget, and many just can’t let that go. That human trait is also responsible for many not believing and or trusting this entire bull market.”
– @SethCL
Sector concentration as a % of total US market cap via @TheIdeaFarm pic.twitter.com/2bW3jU4rK4
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) June 29, 2025
US exceptionalism must be dead!!!! 😂 Could we simply be playing catch-up after last years international underperformance? (rhetorical!) 🤔
55% of global markets made new highs last week – the best level in over a decade. pic.twitter.com/QySotTzl99
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) June 28, 2025
Breadth is trash 🚮, they said!
Non-Payers are strong. Non-Payers/Payers ratio ranks 2nd, only trailing 1998.
Dividend Non-Payers vs Payers is another way to measure risk-on/risk-off. Payers outperform over the long run but Non-Payers tend to do well early in recoveries. Even handicapping for this tendency, Non-Payers are strong. Non-Payers/Payers ratio ranks 2nd, only trailing 1998. 3/6 pic.twitter.com/i4NGuVSyVz
— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) June 28, 2025
Within our 2025 Outlook, we were of the opinion we will realize 2-3 VAR shocks in the year of 2025. So far, so good!!!
18% cash on the sidelines. Not high. pic.twitter.com/EQdS0hVEYy
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 28, 2025
And you are still scared to buy the dip… why exactly?
“Down is good, up is simply better!” – Seth Golden
Semis now make up over 12% of the S&P 500. Making the index more cyclical than ever.
That’s the highest weighting… more than 3x the historical average and up from just 5% in mid-2020.
• Nvidia alone is 56% of the group
• Broadcom is another 20%Together, these two names… pic.twitter.com/904nKkEikx
— Sean D. Emory (@_SeanDavid) June 28, 2025
Anything fishy stick out to you from this chart? Been a while, I know!!!
Jeremy Siegel: “This is the biggest policy mistake in 95 years.” We’ve done this mass tariff thing 3 times: 1828, 1930, 2025 All spaced about 100 years apart because everyone who remembers the last one needs to be dead for the next one to happen @stacycay
Annual #GDP by President since 1920s
Red = Republican
Blue = DemocratAnd no, not everyone knows that. #economy #Trump #unemployment pic.twitter.com/aP80mvPcga
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) June 30, 2025
SCHEDULED 👏👏👏 FUND 👏👏👏FLOWS 👏👏👏
2009 -2014/2020 – 2025 Analogue
The most widely coded analogue remains on track w/2025 now +.17% ahead of 2014.
If the analogue remains on track, by year-end 2025 $SPX will carry 6,645.
Keep handy, plan accordingly!$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $IWM $VOO $MSFT $NVDA pic.twitter.com/67AJsljyiV
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) June 29, 2025
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