“Patience and discipline—that’s what’s going to get rewarded more repeatedly than impatience, forcing trades onto the market at all-time highs.
There’s nothing wrong with taking profits, raising a little bit of cash and just waiting for that next fat pitch to come across the plate that you can swing at—but the worst thing that can happen is that you do force a trade onto the market and it works.
Why? Because that’s a bit of fool’s gold from bad discipline.”
– Seth Golden via FinomGroup.com (Premium Members Only) Trading Room 07/15
Mid-week Summary
Wednesday, July 16th, 2025
Welcome to Market Mania!
Where the only thing more relentless than the headlines is the market’s ability to surprise.
As mid-July 2025 unfolds, markets are contending with more than just economic data. The spotlight has shifted to outright political uncertainty. President Trump’s suggestion that he might fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has injected fresh volatility into the landscape. After sharing a draft dismissal letter with lawmakers and asking for their input, Trump has since downplayed the likelihood of moving forward but stopped short of a definitive answer. The timing, intentions, and legal process remain unclear, leaving investors with more questions than answers.
Markets are on edge. Treasury yields and the dollar have fluctuated, bank stocks have come under pressure, and gold continues to climb as investors react to the possibility of leadership disruption at the central bank. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has warned about the risks to Fed credibility, and with no legal precedent for such a move, financial markets remain cautious. The lack of clarity around Powell’s position is now a central theme in what was already shaping up to be a critical stretch for investors.
This uncertainty is layered atop a fragile equity market. The S&P 500 has pulled back after recent record highs while the Nasdaq holds firm thanks to continued strength in AI-related names like Nvidia. Beneath the surface, signs of fatigue are growing. Earnings have been underwhelming. JPMorgan has declined for two straight sessions despite posting profitable results as traders respond more to future guidance than to past performance. Forward-looking commentary on margins and credit risks is weighing on sentiment. The Dow has given up ground as money moves out of financials and industrials and into defensive sectors.
The bigger question now is whether large-cap technology can continue to carry the market. The Nasdaq remains elevated, but leadership is increasingly narrow and valuations are extended. Any disappointment in the coming earnings reports from tech giants could easily trigger broader selling. While Nvidia and a handful of other names have propped up the broader index, market breadth continues to weaken. Investors are beginning to rotate into areas perceived as more stable, suggesting that some participants are starting to prepare for potential turbulence ahead.
On the economic front, inflation data is sending mixed signals. Headline inflation ticked higher due to import price pressures, yet core inflation remains contained. The Federal Reserve’s next steps are now even less predictable given the politicized backdrop. At the same time, corporate fundamentals are being tested. Earnings season is underway, and with several key reports due in the coming days, the market is bracing for impact.
With political noise, earnings volatility, and narrow leadership all unfolding at once, this market requires a high level of discipline. Rotations are accelerating. Breadth is thinning. Patience and data-driven decisions are being rewarded, while reactionary behavior risks costly mistakes. The most successful investors are sticking to their process and staying flexible.
Let’s dive into this week’s full report and unpack the data, the risks, and the opportunities that lie ahead.
Market Mania is your daily digest of the most actionable insights you won’t find in your usual scroll—curated from and for thousands of market pros, asset managers, RIAs, and expert investors. We dig through the noise to bring you the best charts, articles, and ideas shared across the web each week.
TLDR: We hunt, you read, you decide 🤝
Here’s what’s catching the eye of the sharpest minds in the market today!
Chart(s) of the Week
🏆 Today’s Chart(s) of the Week were shared by Seth Golden and Troy Bombardia (@SethCL and @SubuTrade):
S&P $SPX now above 20-DMA for 54 straight days. Even hottest bull markets don't find SPX maintaining such conditions without a pullback below the moving average in short order. Bullish signal overall!
Volatility ahead? $ES_F $QQQ $SPY $IWM $NYA $VOO $VIX $PLTR
h/t @SubuTrade pic.twitter.com/aas9Vi2j7E— Seth Golden (@SethCL) July 14, 2025
Our first chart, highlighted by Seth Golden (@SethCL) and shared by @SubuTrade, showcases an exceptional feat: the S&P 500 has now remained above its 20-day moving average for 54 consecutive sessions—an uncommon streak even among strong bull markets. This sustained move signals robust momentum and strong underlying demand, yet historically such extended periods are followed by a pullback below the 20-DMA as the market seeks a short-term reset. This pattern reflects how markets balance persistent strength with periodic volatility to maintain healthy trends. 📈
The current momentum builds on one of the fastest recoveries from a 15% or greater drop in recent history. The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in just 125 trading days during 2025, paralleling the rapid rebound in 1998 after the Asian Financial Crisis. This aligns perfectly with the “willingness clause” concept from our March 30th report, “Long Term Gains Demand Short Term Pain”, which reminds investors that enduring interim volatility is essential to capturing full market gains. Those who stayed disciplined through the drawdown have been rewarded with the swift and substantial upside. 😉 💯
Looking forward, while the strong momentum suggests continued strength, historical precedent advises caution. July’s seasonal tendencies toward choppier action and upcoming shifts in fund flows raise the probability of a near-term volatility event. Such pullbacks should not be feared but rather viewed as valuable opportunities to add exposure in a resilient uptrend. In sum, volatility may be on the horizon, but the prevailing signal remains clearly positive for investors who maintain patience and stick to process.
3 of 4 legs for the Golden Bull have triggered in 2025, w/only $SPX %age of stocks > 50-DMA equaling 90% yet to trigger.
I would keep the Golden Bull composite signal handy through year-end and monitor for 4th leg.
2023s last Golden Bull signal delivered +25% 12-mon gain.… https://t.co/OTJhgiVQsC
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) July 11, 2025
Our second chart reveals where we stand with the Golden Bull—a proprietary, composite quant signal with profound implications for market trajectory. Seth Golden (@SethCL) notes that three of the four required legs for the Golden Bull composite signal have already triggered in 2025, with only one component remaining: the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average needs to reach 90% (currently 60%).
This development deserves close attention through year-end. The Golden Bull is an exceptionally rare technical formation, having signaled only 7 times since 1975. What makes this indicator particularly valuable is its perfect track record—a 100% positivity rate over the following 12 months. When the final leg triggers, completing the signal, it would mark the 8th occurrence in nearly five decades.
Looking back to 2023, the last Golden Bull signal produced a substantial 25% gain over the subsequent 12 months. This aligns with the historical average return of 27.2% following complete signals, with past instances delivering gains ranging from 7% (2004) to an impressive 45.6% (1982).
For investors navigating 2025’s crosscurrents, this technical setup reinforces the value of maintaining both conviction and patience. The Golden Bull combines multiple breadth measures, including Degraaf Thrust, Summation Index readings above 900, and broad participation above key moving averages, creating a comprehensive bull market confirmation that cuts through noise and headlines.
While we await the final component, current market dynamics support the likelihood of completion, particularly with the S&P 500 showing strength above its 20-DMA for an extended period. The recent recovery from April’s correction, reaching new highs in just 125 trading days, demonstrates the market’s resilience and underlying momentum, exactly the conditions that typically precede Golden Bull completions.
For tactical considerations, sectors showing leadership (SMH, CIBR, XLK) may continue outperforming as breadth improves further, while the completion would likely support the broader market’s uptrend through year-end. As always, maintaining discipline through volatility and keeping dry powder ready for any weakness remains the prudent approach, especially as we monitor this potentially powerful bullish development. 🔥🐂
Quote(s) of The Week
Are you taking advantage of cheaper prices?
Or are they STILL not cheap enough?
Days like today:
“Stock market is the only place people going running from a sale.”
“You’ll know it’s time to buy when you don’t want to!” ~Walter Deemer$SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM $NYA
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) July 24, 2024
The way Technicians feel about Fundamentals is the way Quants feel about Technicians.
Know which discipline aligns mostly with your aptitude, but grow your knowledge for all investing disciplines
Best investors I know are able to utilize and prioritize all 3 disciplines, within the context of their proficiency!
-Seth Golden
Just a friendly reminder that it's a bull market and we're not that smart. The second you get too cocky, the market has a convenient way of humbling you quickly. Trust me, I've been there before. Stay humble (and thirsty) my friends.
— Joseph Fahmy (@jfahmy) July 14, 2025
Top 10 Tweets of The Week
Bears🐼 claim “it’s all luck”
Lucky jobs market has been so strong
Lucky higher rates haven’t killed housing market
Lucky Fed hasn’t messed up
Lucky consumer had stimulus cash to spend
Lucky all the geopolitical problems havent toppled mkts
If I was only this lucky (Lottery)
For those wondering, this type of divergence is quite anomalous (histogram of breadth at new ATHs below).
-Seasonality turning,
-Sentiment peaking,
-Automatic flows (corporates+vol-control+ctas) waning,
-Tariff complacencyProbably a good time to take down risk. pic.twitter.com/gC6wwpPoTn
— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) July 15, 2025
Looking for reasons to sell? I may have one, or two for you!
NASDAQ down 7 straight during July monthly options expiration week. NASDAQ also bearish on monthly options expiration day, down 23 of last 35, avg loss 0.46%. https://t.co/VrOgEyV2lU pic.twitter.com/BdkZUiqfo9
— Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) July 11, 2025
Disgustingly accurate? Or are you still waiting for this analogue to fail?… Fund flows are scheduled folks!
The Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run. The Comp has doubled since its low in Dec 2022, close to the index’s 91% gain over the same period from the start of 1995. pic.twitter.com/OuBAPizC87
— Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) (@DataTrekMB) July 10, 2025
So bad it’s good?
Today’s weak participation really stands out given how the S&P 500 performed.
There has never been a day with better returns and worse breadth! pic.twitter.com/fQuj3yEPXE
— Duality Research (@DualityResearch) July 15, 2025
European Exceptionalism is here? 😂🤦♂️
BofA FMS: Allocation to European equities rises to 4-year high $VGK pic.twitter.com/3HS5WWo3bF
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 15, 2025
Are you paying attention or is attention paying you? “But someone on fintwit told me we would selloff on good news!”
Rest in peace to 🐻 pic.twitter.com/VlhCPOTJEh
— Adam Khoo (@adamkhootrader) July 15, 2025
In July, both the S&P 500 and the $NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line reached their highest levels in a year. Historically, that suggests a promising outlook for stock-market upside through year-end. #StockMarket #Investment $SPX pic.twitter.com/4lY5mItzAr
— The Leuthold Group (@LeutholdGroup) July 16, 2025
And that my friends is the fat lady singing, once again!
We are now two months removed from the May 12 spike in new 20-day highs on the S&P 500 (which signaled a DeGraaf Breadth Thrust).
The 7.3% rally in the S&P 500 since that signal is one of the strongest post-breadth thrust moves we have seen in the past 45 years. pic.twitter.com/YUyrPTqM9W
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) July 15, 2025
BTFD indicator, no such thing as a sell signal.
Dubious sell signal. pic.twitter.com/xtUJQclMKu
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) July 15, 2025
There’s never been 3 BEAR 🐻 markets in 5-year period, neva’ eva’!
$SPY – Roughly 3 "Bear Markets" (20% Drawdowns) in 6 years.
Why do people think we need another one already?
Looks like a sustained uptrend is next IMO. pic.twitter.com/TElyTvrmOt
— Larry Thompson, CMT CPA (@HostileCharts) July 13, 2025
Still haven’t done the math folks? (5618…) 💯 😉
If the prior 2 soft landings (1980s/1990s) both generated 100%+ 3-year rolling returns, and 2024 proved the 2020s soft landing…
The title of our 2025 Outlook report (Nov 2024 published) was "Soft Landings: Keeping It 100%"
UPDATED EXPECTATION: has not changed!… pic.twitter.com/mrI3vfwiih
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) July 13, 2025
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