I call this test my New Opportunity Razor… Here are the two questions to assess any new opportunity: 1. Do I like the winning version of this thing? Imagine yourself five years in the future. This new thing you’ve taken on is crushing it. You’re up there with the best at it. Do you like what that looks like as it relates to your life, time, and energy? In other words, if you make it to the top, are you going to like the view from the summit? This is a critical first step, because too often in life we climb a mountain for years, get to the top, and realize that we never really wanted the view in the first place. If you don’t like the life of the person in the corner office, you may want to think about that before you sacrifice 20 years grinding away to get it (or figure out how you’re going to do it differently, at least). If the answer is no, stop here and say no to the opportunity. If the answer is yes, proceed to the second question… 2. Am I willing to do the losing version of this thing for a long time? To earn anything meaningful in life, it’s going to take a long, long time. Probably much longer than even your most optimistic initial assumptions. An American computer scientist named Douglas Hofstadter once coined the self-referential adage, Hofstadter’s Law, which states: “It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.” So, knowing this, do you have energy to do the losing, bad, ugly version of this thing for a long time in order to earn the winning version that you like? You may dive into something because of the appeal of the summit, but you’ll never make it there if you don’t embrace the mud you have to crawl through on the climb. The people who have reached those summits have one common trait: They loved the mud. They obsessed over the details. They had real energy for it. When asked about how he had sustained his high level play for so long, tennis legend Novak Djokovic had a simple response: "I can carry on playing at this level because I like hitting the tennis ball." The summit is the grand slam championships. Standing on center court, holding the trophy high in the air. Everyone likes that version. But the way you earn it is through thousands upon thousands of hours of hitting the ball. In the cold. In the dark. In the rain. When nobody’s watching. When nobody’s cheering. When nobody cares. The losing version is the cost of entry for the winning version. The New Opportunity Razor has been a major life cheat code. The best opportunities for your life will pass this test. You'll love the summit and the mud you have to navigate to get there. When you find those things, go all in. Say no to everything else. - Sahil Bloom (https://x.com/sahilbloom/status/2051997395827798274?s=46)

Market Mania – FinX Weekly Top Tweets #27

Weekly Articles

“How do you know when to double-down on a position? Only when you’re willing to triple-down on a position!”
“When the market does the opposite of your expectations, repeatedly, it is detailing through price that your understandings and assertions are wrong.”
“Some industries and sectors have entered the “it’s not what you make, it’s what you keep” portion of the cyclical conversation.”
– SETH GOLDEN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT FINOMGROUP.COM
(CONTRIBUTOR/PREMIUM MEMBERS ONLY)