2. They anticipate only minor adjustments to the modal forecasts in the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections), with more focus on the significant risks around that baseline outlook and implications for monetary policy expressed in the accompanying statement and Chair Powell’s press conference.

3. Look for a flatter trajectory for the fed funds rate, with the median dot remaining at zero hikes for this year, and coming down in ‘20 to show zero hikes next year as well. One, possibly two dots, could favor cuts this year, but they don’t expect a broad-based shift lower in ‘19 because the Fed doesn’t pre-plan easing cycles.

4. They continue to see the Fed on hold through much of next year, assuming a market-positive outcome from the upcoming G20 meeting.

4. The USD may initially rally if the constellation of events fails to meet the market’s high bar for a dovish delivery, but MS currency strategists recommend fading any USD rally