Please take some time to read this weekend’s 3rd party Research from DataTrek, Merrill Lynch and Fundstrat. We will restart our usual monthly reporting regime in the coming week. DataTrek’s Nicolaus Colas The following chart shows the rolling 100-day price return correlations between the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 from 2009 to the present. Correlation…...
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Scott Rubner, Managing Director Goldman Sachs This is the last bullish US Equity email that I will be sending out for now, as the last standing bears have capitulated and everyone is in the pool. I am so bullish after 34 new ATH’s, that I am actually turning tactically bearish. The pain trade has shifted…...
Many investors have become quite frustrated by the stock markets’ performance relative to their own portfolio performance. 2024 is one of those years whereby most stocks are underperforming the indices themselves, and by a great deal. It’s a stock market year, not a stock picker’s year. In truth, it’s been that way for the last…...
Macro Strategy—European Equity Risks Increase, Caution Still Warranted: Last month’s European Union (EU) parliamentary elections have marked a turning point in relative performance between European and U.S. equity markets. European Equities had largely kept pace with the U.S. for much of 2024. But returns across the two regions have diverged in the wake of the…...
Macro Strategy—Soft Landing in Progress?: U.S. economic growth remains sturdy, and favorable recent inflation dynamics give the Federal Reserve (Fed) room to bring inflation closer to its 2% target without much damage to the labor market. In other words, the economy appears in the process of a soft landing. What’s more, the latest Global Wave…...
Although the S&P 500 (SPX) would achieve a new, intraday all-time high this past week (Friday), it would fail to sustain a new all-time high on a closing basis. With all the price action from this past week, it’s hard to conceive that markets did a whole lot of… nothing! Both the S&P 500 and…...
S&P 500 and QQQ both showed minor weakness late this week, yet failed to do much technical damage. Both SPY and QQQ finished positive on the week, and while there was brief signs of rotation out of Technology, it doesn’t look to prove long-lasting. Equal-weighted strength earlier this past week was encouraging towards thinking many…...
The Leuthold Group: Not Normal The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a Neutral reading of zero for the week ended June 21st, following its downgrade from High Neutral the previous week. High-frequency economic numbers have deteriorated sharply in the last several weeks, and so have the internals of the stock market. However, there’s enough…...
We’ve often said at Finom Group, “When the market doesn’t produce the higher probability outcome.” And that probability is in the 90 – 100%ile range… pay closer attention to what the market is messaging. That was the case this past week, as most measures of forecasting market moves in the near-term which indicated a pullback…...
