The Leuthold Group: Not Normal The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a Neutral reading of zero for the week ended June 21st, following its downgrade from High Neutral the previous week. High-frequency economic numbers have deteriorated sharply in the last several weeks, and so have the internals of the stock market. However, there’s enough…...
We’ve often said at Finom Group, “When the market doesn’t produce the higher probability outcome.” And that probability is in the 90 – 100%ile range… pay closer attention to what the market is messaging. That was the case this past week, as most measures of forecasting market moves in the near-term which indicated a pullback…...
Small Cap investing remains an exercise in futility, with the Russell 2000 already trailing the S&P 500 by more than 10% through early June. Even Technology stocks can’t escape the curse: The S&P SmallCap 600 Information Technology sector was down 2% year-to-date through June 5th, about 25% behind the S&P 500 Tech sector! And the…...
Did The Fed Already Pull It Off To watch our State of the Market Heading Into 2H 2024 video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week team and be on the lookout for this coming weekend’s macro-market Research Report! This would be 5th SOFT LANDING after rate hike cycle in post-WWII era…...
Two-Hundred Years of Market Concentration in the United States Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data Investors have noticed the increasing concentration of companies at the top of the stock market in the United States. During the past ten years, the Top 10 stocks, the super-cap companies, have doubled their share of the S&P…...
Good weekend to all Finom Group members! During our off-reporting weekend, please find the following reporting from RBC Capital and Fundstrat with outlooks for the economy and markets below. This coming week is a holiday shortened trading week, as the markets will be closed on June 19, 2024. It is also a monthly and quarterly,…...
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Throughout this bull market, stock investors have bemoaned an incessant lack of breadth. Leadership has been remarkably narrow. The S&P 500 index has persistently dominated the overall stock market and a small subset of its members – the Mag7 – has constantly dominated the overall S&P 500! Bull markets traditionally are driven by optimism and…...
They have been proclaiming a slowing labor and employment market for weeks, if not months. Has the Unemployment Rate (UR) risen? Yes! What they don’t emphasize, however, is the abnormally sustained low levels of UR for the last 2+ years. In other words, and akin to many economic metrics, the labor and employment data has…...
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