MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Our view is that the market turmoil and economic slowdown over the past 18 months is not marking the end of the business cycle, but rather represents a reset similar to crises that occurred every 3 years after 2008 (2011/2012, 2015/2016, and 2018/2019). In 2020, the global economy is expected to grow at…...
U.S. options skew on the S&P 500 has been rising recently, and a recent close of 136.6 is actually higher than at any point during last December’s stock meltdown. A refresher on what skew measures: Imagine a $100 stock that has put and call options that expire in 1 year with strike prices of $50 (for…
Markets got off to a rough start in the pre-market trading hours on Tuesday and after a down day Monday. But then headlines surfaced that pointed to delaying the December 15th tariffs. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators were said to be laying the groundwork for a delay of tariffs set to kick in on Dec.…
U.S. equity markets are in distribution and/or de-risk mode ahead of the December 15th tariff deadline. While the financial news media outlets march out various opinions and forward-looking analysis for the markets and economy given this critical trade issue, investors have taken to de-risking their respective portfolios… just in case. On Monday, investors began adding…
The S&P 500 (SPX) has been on a wild ride this past trading week and it remains a guesstimate as to how investors will anticipate a trading week that ends ahead of a potential binary market driver. As we discuss the potential market and economic driving forces in this week’s Research Report, we encourage investors/traders…...
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. This week we discuss the upcoming risks to the coming trading week, which will complete ahead of the December 15th tariff deadline/announcement. Employment data surprised strongly and with upward revisions to previous months, setting off a market…
Equity markets bounced back sharply on Wednesday and after three consecutive trading sessions found with selling pressure. The S&P 500 (SPX) managed to reclaim, hold above and close above the key 3,100 level Wednesday, even as economic came in worse than forecasted. Headlines continue to proliferate in the media from one day to the next…
The weekly expected move for the S&P 500 this week is $37/points. The S&P 500 has now fallen for 3 consecutive days and with media headlines blaming the decline on U.S./China negoitations and economic data (ISM Manufacturing). With the S&P 500 coming into the week at 3,147, just 9 points off its all-time record high…
The S&P 500 (SPX) hasn’t been down more than 0.7% on the first trading day of December since 2008. And then came December 2019, whereby the benchmark index fell by more than .85% on the first trading day of December for the calendar year. So what caused the market hiccup on December 2, 2019 that…
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. In this week’s episode we discuss why this market is so illiquid and seemingly melting higher. Market liquidity works in both directions. Economic data came in much stronger than anticipated this past holiday shortened trading week, boosting…...
