Disappointing retail sales and consumer sentiment suggest the US consumer is fading. Most blame Delta but we think this is more about a payback in demand. We reiterate our defensive tilt and remain underweight discretionary and most cyclical sectors. Inventories not as low as consensus believes. Is the US consumer fading? Never bet against the…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 In a down week for all major indices, it’s clear that what worked was defensive in nature and what didn’t work for investors was cyclical in nature. This weekly performance comes on the heels of the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment report (released Friday August 13), which was rather abysmal,…
That was some wild monthly Options Expiration week; was it not? While the S&P 500 (SPX) fell .60% on the week, it threatened a great deal more than that by mid-week. The trend has not proven friendly for monthly Options Expiration week, but the long-term trend for the benchmark index proved its strength once again…...
They say the trading hierarchy is 10% Technical analysis, 30% Risk Management and 60% Patience & Emotion management. If you lack patience, and can’t control and recognize your emotions, then you’ll likely find little to any progress with your investing/trading regiments. Technical/Fundamental analysis is the strategy/process and plan to employ. The hardest part is the…...
Following very strong 1H earnings, we raise our forecasts that leave us above consensus on 2021 but below on 2022 due to lower margins and higher taxes. With our view for further derating, our S&P targets remain largely unchanged. We also take a deep dive on what companies are currently saying. Marking to market on…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Seriously, investing/trading is hard. Nothing worth doing well is easy, and if it’s something we really enjoy or desire to master/perfect we tend to make it more difficult, given the passion we employ for the activity. So just know these factoids of life apply for investors just the same. All good…
Welcome back to Finom Group’s weekly Research Report, as we kick-off our 3-week reporting cycle. Two weeks ago, during our week off, markets continued to climb higher. The biggest achievement during the climb was the onset of market breadth improvements. We’ve noted that significant corrections had been taking place underneath the surface of the indices,…...
“A strategy is NOT bound by or tethered to luck! Find a strategy that works for you, incorporates your risk tolerance and breeds repeatable profits. Until you do, luck may be playing a bigger role than skill if finding a degree of success. ~Seth Golden As Jason Zweig previously penned: “Where ignorance is bliss, ‘tis folly to…...
By Russell Rhoads As we approached August, market observers and commentators pointed to the danger that the months of August and September may hold for stocks. This line of thinking comes from recent history. Specifically, mid-month sell-offs in the 12% to 13% range for the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) in August 2011 and August 2015 along with…...
STRATEGY: July/August “chop” morphing into full Missouri (aka “show me state”) –> tilting us further into “risk-on” view –> multiple risk-on signs Wednesday sell-off was capitulation… The sell-off seen in markets Wednesday, in our view, had a capitulatory feel to it. The ostensible trigger was a combination of the soft ADP jobs report and seeming…...
