Chair Powell and the Fed make it crystal clear that their job fighting inflation remains unfinished. Ironically, while bonds took the message in stride, stocks seemed to be shocked by the messaging. The path for stocks from here will be determined by earnings, where we still see material downside. Unfinished business for theFed…While the Fed’s…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 At the end of the second quarter, the S&P 500’s price was 3,785. There’s still another month left to go in the quarter that currently followed that 15%+ drop. We’ll have another 23 trading days to see if the markets can lean into the greater probability identified in the data sets…
With consecutive down weeks for the markets and the manner in which this past Friday played out for investors, dismay, pessimism, and doubt are likely to plague investor sentiment once again. On June 30, 2022, the S&P 500 (SPX) finished the first half of the trading year in bear market territory, down 20.58 percent. It…...
In bull markets, investors are blind to the risks. In bear markets, investors are blind to the opportunities ~ Brian Feroldi If you would like to watch the State of the Market video, please click the link provided. (coming shortly) Have a great trading week and be on the lookout for this weekend’s Research Report!…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Our first chart comes to us from Chris Ci0vacco. As we had discussed in the past, there will be many, many market participants and pundits that will lay claim to the recent rally as proving nothing more than a bear market rally. Heck, a prominent Wall Street strategist recently offered that…
A 4-week winning streak has come to an end for markets. As reported in last week’s Research Report, this held a reasonable probability after a nearly 18% rally in the S&P 500 (SPX) and roughly 20% rally in the Nasdaq (COMP). “In the table/study below from Steve Deppe, we take a look at what just…...
If this were a Bear Market Rally then the S&P 500 gain of +17.19% off the decline of -23.55% would be the GREATEST bear market rally ever after an interim bear market decline of -27.77% or less. If this were a Bear Market Rally then the NASDAQ gain of +22.52% off the decline of -33.70%…...
Research Report Excerpt #1 Recall the table above that we had been tracking and suggesting may prove favorable for the back half of 2022? Since 1932, any time the S&P 500 was down 14% or greater through the first 120 days of the year, from that point forward the market was higher by year-end. And…
Welcome back to our weekly Research Report cycle (3-weeks on, 1 week off). The markets are expressing a very consistent pattern that we’ve analyzed and outlined for several months, as the bear market cemented itself in 2022. The good news is that the bear market may have moved from cementation to culmination. The technical analysis…...
If we know that bad times are temporary and progress is undefeated, why is it so hard to stay invested when stocks fall? I buy the argument that there are some evolutionary things going on in our genetic makeup. Better to run first and ask questions later. But if we put that to the side…...
