Many investors have become quite frustrated by the stock markets’ performance relative to their own portfolio performance. 2024 is one of those years whereby most stocks are underperforming the indices themselves, and by a great deal. It’s a stock market year, not a stock picker’s year. In truth, it’s been that way for the last…...
Macro Strategy—European Equity Risks Increase, Caution Still Warranted: Last month’s European Union (EU) parliamentary elections have marked a turning point in relative performance between European and U.S. equity markets. European Equities had largely kept pace with the U.S. for much of 2024. But returns across the two regions have diverged in the wake of the…...
Macro Strategy—Soft Landing in Progress?: U.S. economic growth remains sturdy, and favorable recent inflation dynamics give the Federal Reserve (Fed) room to bring inflation closer to its 2% target without much damage to the labor market. In other words, the economy appears in the process of a soft landing. What’s more, the latest Global Wave…...
Although the S&P 500 (SPX) would achieve a new, intraday all-time high this past week (Friday), it would fail to sustain a new all-time high on a closing basis. With all the price action from this past week, it’s hard to conceive that markets did a whole lot of… nothing! Both the S&P 500 and…...
S&P 500 and QQQ both showed minor weakness late this week, yet failed to do much technical damage. Both SPY and QQQ finished positive on the week, and while there was brief signs of rotation out of Technology, it doesn’t look to prove long-lasting. Equal-weighted strength earlier this past week was encouraging towards thinking many…...
The Leuthold Group: Not Normal The Major Trend Index was unchanged at a Neutral reading of zero for the week ended June 21st, following its downgrade from High Neutral the previous week. High-frequency economic numbers have deteriorated sharply in the last several weeks, and so have the internals of the stock market. However, there’s enough…...
We’ve often said at Finom Group, “When the market doesn’t produce the higher probability outcome.” And that probability is in the 90 – 100%ile range… pay closer attention to what the market is messaging. That was the case this past week, as most measures of forecasting market moves in the near-term which indicated a pullback…...
Small Cap investing remains an exercise in futility, with the Russell 2000 already trailing the S&P 500 by more than 10% through early June. Even Technology stocks can’t escape the curse: The S&P SmallCap 600 Information Technology sector was down 2% year-to-date through June 5th, about 25% behind the S&P 500 Tech sector! And the…...
Did The Fed Already Pull It Off To watch our State of the Market Heading Into 2H 2024 video, please click the provided link. Have a great trading week team and be on the lookout for this coming weekend’s macro-market Research Report! This would be 5th SOFT LANDING after rate hike cycle in post-WWII era…...
Two-Hundred Years of Market Concentration in the United States Dr. Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist, Global Financial Data Investors have noticed the increasing concentration of companies at the top of the stock market in the United States. During the past ten years, the Top 10 stocks, the super-cap companies, have doubled their share of the S&P…...
