Good weekend to all Finom Group members! During our off-reporting weekend, please find the following reporting from RBC Capital and Fundstrat with outlooks for the economy and markets below. This coming week is a holiday shortened trading week, as the markets will be closed on June 19, 2024. It is also a monthly and quarterly,…...
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Throughout this bull market, stock investors have bemoaned an incessant lack of breadth. Leadership has been remarkably narrow. The S&P 500 index has persistently dominated the overall stock market and a small subset of its members – the Mag7 – has constantly dominated the overall S&P 500! Bull markets traditionally are driven by optimism and…...
They have been proclaiming a slowing labor and employment market for weeks, if not months. Has the Unemployment Rate (UR) risen? Yes! What they don’t emphasize, however, is the abnormally sustained low levels of UR for the last 2+ years. In other words, and akin to many economic metrics, the labor and employment data has…...
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Who could have predicted 🔮 this past Friday’s intraday price action and how the day ultimately concluded? Well, calling for market volatility isn’t really a call. Nonetheless, here is a reminder of what I (Seth Golden) offered in our May 19, 2024 Research Report: “With the S&P 500 finishing the week just above 5,300 and…...
Wall Street colloquialisms are rarely justified by data or proven a valid consideration. “Sell in May and Go Away” is mostly a correction/pullback warning. Since 2000, here are the corrections/pullbacks per year, that started around May and their respective duration. The average correction was 9.5%. Better to simply buy-the-dip, than time the sale. To watch…...
Merrill Lynch: IN THIS ISSUE Macro Strategy—Is Stagflation Likely?: With inflation stubbornly high after briefly surpassing levels not seen in 40 years, the term “stagflation” has been resurrected as a risk for the U.S. economy. Currently, however, the low unemployment rate is inconsistent with stagflation. What’s more, inflation remains on a downtrend, and wage growth…...
The Major Trend Index remained at a High Neutral reading of +1 in the week ended May 17th. While the MTI graphic shown remains imbalanced, the “net weight” of all the evidence is on the positive side of the ledger, and we’ve kept net equity exposure at around 57% in our tactical portfolios in recent…...
Nothing moves sentiment more than price! You’ve probably heard that phrasing before? The phrasing basically suggests that despite all the variables at play for any given time period, whatever price is doing that tends to be the most influential variable moving investor risk appetite and strategists’ outlook for price action. We saw how this principle…...
