The analysis and Research within comes via the monthly Macro-Memo from RBC Capital Wealth Advisors: We have been predicting a recession for quite some time. The possibility first came into focus in the spring of 2022, and we believed a recession could be imminent as long as a year ago. That raises two questions. How…...
The weekend is where many a discipline and devoted investor/portfolio manager spend most of their free time in the exercise of macro-market research and/or due diligence, as it is more profoundly referenced. With that in mind, I hope Finom Group members receive this week’s “Research Notes” in effort to serve your devotions well. We’ve discussed,…...
“The most important financial lessons aren’t learned slowly during bull markets. They are seared into your brain in bear markets” ~Brian Feroldi If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market video, please click the provided link. Third party Research from RBC Capital will be issued this weekend. Seth Golden will be off…...
1. The economy is holding up better than expected, but recession risk remains. In the third quarter, easing inflation and stronger economic growth helped fuel optimism for a soft landing. However, monthly data suggest economic momentum is slowing, and we may not be out of the woods just yet. Business spending has held up more…...
Welcome to another trading week. In appreciation for all of our Basic Membership level participants and daily readers of finomgroup.com content, we offer the following excerpts from within our weekly Research Report. Our weekly Research Report is extremely detailed and has proven to help guide investors and traders during all types of market conditions with…
Thank goodness that is over with; September and the historically weaker returns associated with Q3 are complete! The period that just ended did very much live up to its historical performance, disrupting certain other quantitative data sets/studies along the way. It has proven quite remarkable just how seasonally obedient the market has performed in 2023,…...
On markets, not much has changed since our August Rasputin piece. While most leading indicators point to weaker US growth by Q1, the expected decline is modest as potential recessions go. Tighter Fed policy is partially offset by large fiscal deficits, US industrial policy (incentive-driven spending on infrastructure, energy and semiconductors), strong corporate and household…...
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In my conversations over the years with retail investors — many of whom are novices (not that there’s anything wrong with that) — most don’t swap their long positions for short positions when they turn bearish. Rather, they tend to embrace more of a risk-on versus risk-off approach. ~Sam Ro If you would like to…...
Key takeaways Soft landing (47% Bearish signals vs 58% in Sep-22), but still below-trend outlook; mfg take-off unlikely before easing Slow-but-steady pick up in world EPS to mid-single digit growth in the next 12 months; acceleration in core disinflation Weight of the evidence suggests a mildly positive narrative going into the year-end; higher-for-longer bond yields…...
