September is very much living up to its usual swooning of price action, and finding investors recoiling. The seasonality surrounding September (say that 10 times fast), regardless of its consistency and seemingly adherence to a pre-defined schedule, will still induce investor fear. Additionally, there’s no shortage of macro-issues to correlate with September’s price action. We…...
Let’s begin with a mea culpa. In my note of 18 May 2023, I wrote that the risk/reward for equities versus bonds was in favor of the latter. Since then, US equities are up 8%. US long-end government bonds are down 8%. There used to be a word for that. Ah yes. Wrong! ‘The horse is…...
A “soft landing” for the economy in the US seems increasingly possible, so we look back at previous similar episodes to get an idea of what might be ahead for equities there. Despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle over the past year and a half, it looks increasingly likely that the US economy will avoid recession,…...
The explosion of interest in artificial intelligence this year has fueled a major rally in technology stocks, with a concentrated group of large US companies leading the market higher. This slate of “early winners,” including makers of semiconductors needed to build AI technology and cloud service providers with the computing infrastructure to commercialize it, returned roughly 60%…...
Let’s not blow things out of proportion, as the first full trading week of September and month-to-date returns are already off too a poor start. We have always known that this particular August – September period would prove treacherous for investors, and thus far it has born out the historic pattern that we had formerly…...
The Paradox: The #1 concern for most investors/traders forces the diversification of a portfolio, which ultimately and perpetually underperforms a more concentrated Growth portfolio .. large drawdowns! To overcome this fear is to increase outperformance odds! ~Seth Golden If you would like to watch this week’s State of the Market video, please click the provided…...
RBC Capital’s chief market strategist Lori Calvasina: Welcome to RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast recording August 28th, 2023. I’m Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers. Three big things you need to know: First, historically, the US equity market tends…...
Well, it looks like I’ll be the only one at Finom Group working this weekend. Edward and the Support team will be enjoying the extended holiday weekend, so bear with grammatical errors in this weekend’s Research Report folks, as editing will not be on my agenda 🤪! Don’t worry, my first Bachelor’s degree was in…...
Cross-Asset Strategy: US Q2 reporting delivered soft earnings growth and less upbeat corporate guidance, as corporates are seeing demand and prices soften with ongoing margin pressure. The consensus 2024 EPS growth rate of 12% appears too optimistic given an aging business cycle with very restrictive monetary policy, still rising cost of capital, lapping of very…...
The U.S. money supply is shrinking for the first time since 1949, as savings deposits decline and the Federal Reserve shrinks its $8 trillion balance sheet. The drop stems mostly from changes in Fed policy and rising interest rates, but it says little about the prospects for inflation or the likelihood of recession, according to Goldman Sachs Research.…...
