Lennart Heim is the Compute Team Lead at RAND’s Technology and Security Policy Center and a Professor of Policy Analysis at RAND School of Public Policy. China will likely match U.S. AI model capabilities this year, triggering inevitable concerns about America’s technological edge. However, this snapshot comparison misses the bigger picture. While Chinese models close the gap on benchmarks,…...
Although the stock market has rallied remarkably since the April 8th low, there will remain a very unhealthy amount of market participants from all walks of life that will remain paralyzed by the headlines and fears of a looming and seemingly inevitable recession, as promoted in the headlines. Investors feel the fear of a recession quite…...
The impact on real GDP from Trump’s tariffs will depend crucially on whether (and how quickly) the customs duties raised are recycled back into the economy as new tax cuts. We assume most, if not all, of the revenue is returned to households in the upcoming budget reconciliation. Failure to do so would represent a…...
Nobody said 2025 was going to be easy? Well, maybe the Wall Street strategists implied so with their median S&P 500 (SPX) forecast of 6,500. Either way, keep your seatbelt buckled, arms and legs inside the market vehicle at all times and until the ride/year comes to a stop, kindly! How have you performed in…...
Happy Holidays to all Finom Group members, and welcome to this weekend’s 3rd Party Research Compilation. During our off-reporting weekend, please consider the following Analytics from in and around Wall Street, inclusive of certain of our macro-economic notes. We continue to monitor the data surrounding the labor and housing markets, as these two areas often…...
Only 1 quarter and 8-trading days into 2025, only about 60 days into the new Trump-led White House administration, and what a ride it has been already. If we hadn’t suggested strapping yourself in and hanging on tight beforehand… what are you waiting for? There’s a veiled suggestion within “strapping yourself in”, as investors are…...
A troubling macro-market landscape, gripped by an endogenous force-factor has been at play since February. The label of this endogeny is now undeniably “Trump Tariffs”, as the immediate reaction to President Trump’s labeled Liberation Day has been a global asset class decline and raised probabilities for a domestic and possibly global recession. The notion of…...
Good weekend Finom Group investors/traders. As this is our off-reporting weekend, please consider the abundance of thoughts, outlooks and analysis offered in our 3rd-Party Research within this weekend’s publication. In addition, we think it beneficial to review our proprietary macro-market Research Report from last weekend when time permits. It has proven a difficult year for…...
The Major Trend Index held at a bearish reading of -3 for the week ended March 21st. The net scores in the four factor categories were also unchanged; revisions within the Cyclical segment skewed toward the negative side, while movement among Sentiment components tilted more positive. Overall, the MTI and our related disciplines suggest the…...
Well, we have our answer to last week’s question of the week! “So just how powerful is the current endogeny at play?…”While this quant is related to one of the most powerful endogenous forces there can be (FOMC monetary policy), it has proven less powerful than the threat of endogenous tariffs from the White House…...
