• Seth Golden posted an update 4 days, 20 hours ago

    UBS Macro making some sensible comments on where we are in the cycle:

    1. Traditional ideas of late and early cycle have gone out of the window

    2. The good news is that we believe that this cycle is not about to roll over and die unless we suffer exogenous shocks.

    3. The bad news is that while the Business and Financial cycles have room to grind further, the Market Cycle is already pushing on the highs of the past two decades.

    4. Subsequent one-two-year returns have been poor when the Market cycle has been as late as it currently is.

    5. This is a time to carefully consider Alpha instead of aggressive Beta bets

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