• Seth Golden posted an update 6 days, 15 hours ago

    Wildcards & volatility generators
    JPM lists potential game-changers for 2020

    1. application of Hong Kong SAR bill impedes US/China trade deal

    2. Chinese economy slows to 5.5% rather than stabilizes

    3. Democrats nominate Warren/Sanders; Democrats sweep 2020 elections

    4. Fed shift to average inflation targeting delivers very negative real rates

    5. US corporate profits fail to revive, margins narrow significantly

    6. UK elections deliver Tory gov’t that fail to agree FTA with EU by end-2020

    7. OPEC+ delivers stricter compliance while US oil capex slows shale output.

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