Seth, what’s your view on the repetitive testings of the SPX’s 200MA we keep getting? On Feb 9th the SPX crossed briefly below the 200MA (low was 2532.69 with 200MA @2539.26), on March 23rd it touched this support (low was 2585.89 with 200MA @2585.21), on April 2nd it went well below to 2553.80 and ended up closing below (close was 2581.88 while the 200MA was 2589.84), and yesterday once again ventured below to 2575.49, but ending the session @2614.41 above the 200MA of 2590.75. Basically the way I see it, we didn’t get a double bottom, neither a triple bottom…but a quadruple bottom. With both spot and future VIX stubbornly elevated for 2 straight months now, do you see this constant testing of support sustainable ? Something is gotta give right? Markets seem unwilling to neither rally nor capitulate. Do you expect to see more of this lack of directional conviction until we’re well into the next earnings season? Thanks!
No, either we break through the recent SPX low before finding more sustainable bottom and then move toward new ATLs or maintain correction territory before resuming uptrend and toward achieving new ATLs. Can’t stay rangebound for too much longer. Eventually capitulation is found historically speaking. But we’ll see, certainly the trade war rhetoric isn’t helping, but may prove to be the final variable pushing markets to the bottom.
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