By Ellen Zetner chief U.S. ecoomist: We expect the Fed to hold the policy rate at 5.375% and to cautiously shift communication from how high to how long. We continue to see it remaining on extended hold until its first cut in June 2024. Our strategists stay long UST 10y. We expect the Fed to…...
In 2023, the S&P 500 gained 20% yet most investors sat on the sidelines as many expected the U.S. economy to slip into a recession. And many remained skeptical throughout 2023 because they saw a Fed that was perceived to be hostile to markets. As we move into 2024, investor skepticism has diminished but investors…...
Most of the measures in the MTI’s Sentiment category—including the Bullish Sentiment of stock market newsletter writers—are interpreted in a contrary fashion. It’s far easier to find indicators that track the “emotional” or “dumb” money in the stock market than it is to isolate the action of true market sophisticates. We track a few futures…...
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Since the start of the rate hike cycle in 2022, regional business cycles have weakened, earnings growth has stagnated (S&P 500 2021-2024E EPS: $208-$225, ~2.5% CAGR), and the market has moved sideways averaging near our price target of 4,200 (2022 avg: ~4,100; 2023 avg: ~4,250). Equity concentration reached levels not seen since 1970s with a…...
Good weekend Finom Group investors and traders. As a reminder, throughout the month of December, our chief equity market strategist Seth Golden will be on vacation, but receiving requests for calls and attending to email and direct message communications. Our dedication to information and analysis flows throughout the month of December, per usual, will consist…...
Context and Comprehension are Key 🔑 A woman without her man is nothing! A woman: without her, man is nothing! If you would like to watch the video hosted by Finom Group’s chief market strategist Seth Golden, please click the link provided. Have a great trading week and holiday season! JEFF COX. Thank you, Mr.…...
CTAs’ net long position in USD/JPY cut by half from its recent peak Macro hedge funds may act on the expectation of a year-end rally. The pick-up in US equity markets continued last week. CTAs further extended their aggregate net long position, albeit at an unhurried pace. It was the week of the Thanksgiving holiday,…...
Seasonal trends are mostly about knowing where to look… and when! For this weekend Research note we are going to explore the big picture perspective, as the decade (2020s) roll forward. Investors should be aware of how the market tends to respond or become guided by the 4-Year Presidential Cycle. If you would like to…...
NVIDIA reported Oct results (revenue/GMs/EPS ) well above consensus and off of a higher Oct-Qtr revenue base, the team guided to a 10% Q/Q increase in the Jan-Qtr, well-above consensus on continued strong spending from its customers to support their AI/accelerated compute initiatives. Expectations were high coming into the print and the team managed to…...
